6/9 (BEL): 150th Belmont Stakes Day

[taxicab]

@ Rollo:

Races @ SA:
Affirmed 100k/Easy Goer 150k.
Summertime Oaks 200k/Acorn 700k.
Silent Lure 75k/Jaipur 400k.
Affirmed 100k/Woody Stephens 400k(at a much better distance for Beautiful Shot).
Bolt d'Oro: Met Mile 1.2 mil...…..nothing in So Cal for him.
San Carlos 250k/Met Mile 1.2 mil.
The connections know their stock inside & out......….they chose the right races.

Eurton/D'Amato/Callaghan are outstanding trainers.
Stats with shippers:
Eurton/D'Amato 16%.
Callaghan 22%.
They've won Breeders Cup races,they've won Gr.1's.
All three have won in NY before.

Spectator has run races fast enough to win a Gr.2/place in a Gr.1.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by taxicab

@ Rollo:

Races @ SA:
Affirmed 100k/Easy Goer 150k.
Summertime Oaks 200k/Acorn 700k.
Silent Lure 75k/Jaipur 400k.
Affirmed 100k/Woody Stephens 400k(at a much better distance for Beautiful Shot).
Bolt d'Oro: Met Mile 1.2 mil...…..nothing in So Cal for him.
San Carlos 250k/Met Mile 1.2 mil.
The connections know their stock inside & out......….they chose the right races.

My main argument is that the majority of the CA horses (minus Baffert) on the Saturday card are not "ready for prime time", so while I can understand the attraction of purses 3-4 times those of the SA races, at the same time the purpose is to actually get decent chunks of the purse so you need a horse that will be competitive on the win end.

The Siren Lure would have been a great return spot for those turf sprinters returning from Dubai considering the notable defeats of other horses returning from there. But I agree with you that there aren't many high dollar races for that division, so I shouldn't lump Miller into the category of the others. I just think there's a significant chance the horse(s) don't show up.

Eurton/D'Amato/Callaghan are outstanding trainers.
Stats with shippers:
Eurton/D'Amato 16%.
Callaghan 22%.
They've won Breeders Cup races,they've won Gr.1's.
All three have won in NY before.

Not sure what the source is of those numbers, but D'Amato has only run a maiden breaker in the Wood at long odds (that got drowned) this year. Eurton ran a nice maiden debut winner in a graded stakes at Keeneland, got beat, then pulled up in her next race. That sort of over-aggressive management fries horses (see Pavel's lackluster career to this point) where they either disappear, fail to progress, or get dumped. He also had Core Beliefs fail as the favorite in the Peter Pan.

Meanwhile, Callaghan has run Runaway, Encumbered, American Gal, and a few more in big stakes and watched them run off the board. American Gal did win her second start on the road and was an established horse, but some of the others were curious to say the least. I guess I should be happy he didn't start Moonshine Memories in the Ashland off the bench.

Spectator has run races fast enough to win a Gr.2/place in a Gr.1.

Speed figure wise, there has been only slight progression from 2 to 3. Several in the Acorn have speed figures well ahead of her. She is also suspect at distances beyond 6.5 furlongs, not having come closer than 3 or 4 lengths in her two tries.

[taxicab]

I used Brisnet trainer stats,it was a large sample size so I think they went back a few years.
Simon Callaghan had two heavily bet stakes flops the last two days...……..I'll be curious how Moonshine Memories does Saturday.
For some reason I have it in my head Monomoy Girl is going to miss in the Acorn...….betting against Brad Cox is usually asking for trouble,dude seems to never fail.

[RolloTomasi]

per twitter:

morning line favorite Kanthaka scratched out of the Woody Stephens.