6/2 (BEL): Pennine Ridge (G3)

[RHT2004]

I guess CB is OK. I prefer Hawkish.

[Alabama Stakes]

Hawkish earned $300K today beating weaker than Catholic Boy who earned $140K. I wouldn’t be surprised If they gave Catholic Boy another chance on the dirt this summer.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by RHT2004

I guess CB is OK. I prefer Hawkish.

In what kind of race? At a flat mile, I suppose I'd go with Hawkish, too.

But if we are talking about anything beyond 9 furlongs (e.g., The Belmont Derby) you might be in for a world of hurt.

I've only seen the stretch run, but from what I can gather from the chart, the Penn Mile was a curiously run race. Why Maraud, who has done nothing but stalk or sit well off the pace, ended up in a 3-way duel for the early lead is beyond me. Encumbered off a 7-month layoff I can see being a bit fresh and clearly the Live Oak Plantation horse is a one dimensional frontrunner who has already shown he will cave readily if pressured. It was a nice setup for a colt like Hawkish who has a devastating turn of foot, but suspect sustainability. The lugging in and wide action don't scream extra furlongs to me...

Meanwhile, Catholic Boy, already well-versed in late running tactics on the lawn as a juvenile, showed great versatility setting his own pace, absorbing a bold challenge from a top class rival, taking a couple of glancing blows along the fence, checking inside the final furlong, and re-gathering momentum to nail the laboring favorite at the wire. All this while making a return to turf off a couple months layoff after a significant bleeding episode. Throw some of that pace from the Penn Mile in the Belmont Derby and Catholic Boy will be able to position himself early wherever is to his advantage and truly assert himself in the latter stages.

As a side note, I'd be interested in Untamed Domain if he gets an invite to the Belmont Derby. He was taken out of his game (one late run) when making an early move to put some pressure on Catholic Boy down the backstretch (by the way Untamed Domain wore blinkers in the American Turf last out, but apparently the Kentucky Derby wasn't the only chart that was botched by Churchill that day).

And while we're on the subject of 10 furlongs for the Belmont Derby, I'd take a look at the minor Tale of the Cat Stakes at Monmouth today over a good turf course. Divisidero's half brother Gunnison rallied sharply late to tag the Sam-Son Tapit colt Strike Me Down after those two separated themselves from the rest of the field at the top of the stretch. Not sure about the class--though they are both bred in the purple--but they sure seem capable of handling more ground in the future.

Finally, the Artie Schiller colt in CA, Fibonacci is back working again after missing about 30 days after his latest win in late March. Not sure if he has a prep race he can point for other than a conditioned allowance against his elders (if Santa Anita can actually fill such a race), but he's another who looks suited to the distance.

[freddymo]

I think Analyze must have had something go amiss in the last 1/16, maybe he bled, pulled something, who knows, and perhaps he just got beat on the square? We will see what team Galileo brings to the Belmont Derby; I am sure they have something that will test anyone one of the 4 or 5 good horses racing here.

[Alabama Stakes]

It was nine furlongs....the final 1/16 is what separates it from 1 1/16. It’s a whole new ball game. Catholic Boy had more bottom when it counted.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by Alabama Stakes

It was nine furlongs....the final 1/16 is what separates it from 1 1/16. It’s a whole new ball game. Catholic Boy had more bottom when it counted.

Yeah, you are right on there! I forgot Chad's horses are typically short and rarely finish the last 1/16 when they don't have enough bottom.

On a serious note, fair play to Catholic Boy, my guess is it is the last time he beats him.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by freddymo

On a serious note, fair play to Catholic Boy, my guess is it is the last time he beats him.

I'm not sure why Analyze It got late in deep stretch, but the connections are now in an interesting quandary with what to do next with the colt.

Is he simply a miler? Considering the exploits of his sire, he should get some distance, but the bottom side features horses like A.P. Assay, Nice Assay, and Came Home who all had a world of speed. Came Home could carry his, but the two fillies (3rd and 4th dams of Analyze It) couldn't get further than a mile.

What's his running style? He's settled decently in his last 2 starts after mixing it up on the lead in his juvenile starts. He could revert to the latter style in the Belmont Derby and try and pull an Oscar Performance-type victory or continue on with the former in an attempt to maximize his stamina.

There's always the question of competition, too. While he won off the screen in his first 3 starts, perhaps the best horse he has beaten is Pubilius Syrus who has disappeared after taking 2 minor stakes at Santa Anita this winter. Maraud has been quite the in-and-outer in his career thus far, so perhaps Analyze It caught him on an "out" day at Keeneland.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

I'm not sure why Analyze It got late in deep stretch, but the connections are now in an interesting quandary with what to do next with the colt.

Is he simply a miler? Considering the exploits of his sire, he should get some distance, but the bottom side features horses like A.P. Assay, Nice Assay, and Came Home who all had a world of speed. Came Home could carry his, but the two fillies (3rd and 4th dams of Analyze It) couldn't get further than a mile.

What's his running style? He's settled decently in his last 2 starts after mixing it up on the lead in his juvenile starts. He could revert to the latter style in the Belmont Derby and try and pull an Oscar Performance-type victory or continue on with the former in an attempt to maximize his stamina.

There's always the question of competition, too. While he won off the screen in his first 3 starts, perhaps the best horse he has beaten is Pubilius Syrus who has disappeared after taking two minor stakes at Santa Anita this winter. Maraud has been quite the in-and-outer in his career thus far, so perhaps Analyze It caught him on an "out" day at Keeneland.

Guessing Chad will figure out much of the wonder related to distance and style? If he fooled me beating up on ordinary colts, it wouldn't be the first time a sexy winner swooned me. Maybe Catholic Boy is really good or maybe Analyze it was just so much better than the 2-year-old colts? As for Belmont Derby, I will probably defer to Coolmore's entrant and wish Mendelson would participate which he won't which sucks.

[Alabama Stakes]

Originally Posted by freddymo

Yeah, you are right on there! I forgot Chad's horses are typically short and rarely finish the last 1/16 when they don't have enough bottom.

On a serious note, fair play to Catholic Boy, my guess is it is the last time he beats him.

Oh brother. Your superstar was 2 in front inside the 1/16 pole and got beat. Even after fouling the winner twice causing him to lose momentum, he didn’t have an answer. Just because it says Chad Brown as trainer, does not mean the rules of having enough hoss at 9 furlongs don’t apply. after watching that race, your conclusion is that The catholic boy wouldn’t beat him again. I’d love to hear your reasoning. Catholic Boy was the impressive one. Hawkish and Catholic Boy are the leaders of that division.

P.S. Justify will whistle on Saturday