The Belmont Stakes...the double Bunny

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

With all due respect, you make some pretty questionable points. Where did Steve come even close to saying the number of horses a horse faced in earlier races makes it OK for it to face less horses in later races?

IMO, he appeared to make that connection when he concluded his post with:

"Justify has already beaten 23 different horses in 2 legs and if he were to best probable newcomers Blended Citizen, Gronkowski, Restoring Hope and Bandua in the Belmont, the number swells to 27.

"So GTFO with the 'reduced competition' nonsense."

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Then you conclude your post with a total skewing of what Walden said....he said you CAN'T manufacture a TC, yet you left CAN'T out of your quote. Sort of interesting....no?

BTWind, I had already quoted Walden in full, and I had no intention of "skewing" the meaning when I wrote that final sentence.

How did you interpret what Walden wrote? Given the way it followed, "It's different when you've won two out of three than when you've won one out of three,", which seemed to be explaining why they're tempted to NOT run Audible, I interpreted "can't manufacture a TC" to mean 'you shouldn't try to manufacture a TC'. But I could certainly understand you're hearing it differently.

I'm also interested in how you feel about the central question. Do you have any misgivings at all about ownership conglomerates holding out horses merely to make the the TC more likely for the Derby/Preakness winner?

[Kasept]

Sorry if my message was snidely delivered, or perceived, but the thought that Audible (Into Mischief/Blue Devil Bel-Gilded Time) would have been the pre-eminent threat to Justify ~ he's not running ~ was preposterous.

[knickslions2]

Audible is out but now Noble Indy may be back in. To me that's a bigger plus than Audible getting in based on style. There are many Audibles in the race already.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Sorry if my message was snidely delivered, or perceived, but the thought that Audible (Into Mischief/Blue Devil Bel-Gilded Time) would have been the pre-eminent threat to Justify ~ he's not running ~ was preposterous.

I didn't write anything that even remotely suggested that I thought Audible "would have been the pre-eminent threat to Justify".

[tywizard]

Lost in all of these accusations is the fact that Audible had distance questions coming into the Derby...He got the setup of a lifetime and a brilliant ride and still came up short.

The Belmont is obviously further and he's unlikely to get another setup based on the probables...

Instead of assuming Audible wins the Belmont, maybe consider that it's more likely he finishes out of the Super and diminishes his current Stud value...

[skyfire]

Originally Posted by tywizard

Lost in all of these accusations is the fact that Audible had distance questions coming into the Derby...He got the setup of a lifetime and a brilliant ride and still came up short.

The Belmont is obviously further and he's unlikely to get another setup based on the probables...

Instead of assuming Audible wins the Belmont, maybe consider that it's more likely he finishes out of the Super and diminishes his current Stud value...

We will never know because the owners are holding him out. All horse racing is a gamble. Seems like Justify should have faced alll logical candidates.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

IMO, he appeared to make that connection when he concluded his post with:

"Justify has already beaten 23 different horses in 2 legs and if he were to best probable newcomers Blended Citizen, Gronkowski, Restoring Hope and Bandua in the Belmont, the number swells to 27.

"So GTFO with the 'reduced competition' nonsense."



BTWind, I had already quoted Walden in full, and I had no intention of "skewing" the meaning when I wrote that final sentence.

How did you interpret what Walden wrote? Given the way it followed, "It's different when you've won two out of three than when you've won one out of three,", which seemed to be explaining why they're tempted to NOT run Audible, I interpreted "can't manufacture a TC" to mean 'you shouldn't try to manufacture a TC'. But I could certainly understand you're hearing it differently.

I'm also interested in how you feel about the central question. Do you have any misgivings at all about ownership conglomerates holding out horses merely to make the the TC more likely for the Derby/Preakness winner?

I interpret Steve's comments as saying that in an historical context, should he win the TC, Justify would stand up just fine compared to some supposed greats of the past from a competition standpoint. Sure seems fair to me.

I take great exception to how you have chosen to interpret what Elliot said. In fact, I think it's VERY clear that he was saying you can't manufacture a TC win....you know, exactly what he actually DID say. In other words, a horse that wins those three races, 3 an 15/16ths of a mile over five weeks, achieved something that stands up to whatever scrutiny one chooses to throw at it, including the absurd notion that it was somehow manipulated ( specifically by an owner choosing to not run ONE horse in ONE of the races ).

To me, you are looking through comments made by others for meanings that simply aren't there. I find it particularly surprising in this case considering you have always, at least in the past, seemed pretty reasonable.

As far as where owners choose to run, in this case I would encourage them to make the same move, as it makes perfect sense. It also makes sense for Audible, as I doubt he could get 1.5 miles on a flat bed. I think it's extremely important for owners and trainers to try to make the most financially responsible decisions with their horses. That's why I think it's idiotic that City of Light is staying in CA to run in a relatively meaningless race at 10 furlongs as supposed to the Met Mile at eight furlongs. So much more upside for one over the other....just as the upside to NOT running Audible in the Belmont far exceeds the upside of running him. It's a business, and even wealthy people ( at least sometimes ) have to run it as such.

[cal828]

Daily Racing Form post seems to make the whole thing moot.

http://live.drf.com//nuggets/42686-a...s-now-possible

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

That's why I think it's idiotic that City of Light is staying in CA to run in a relatively meaningless race at 10 furlongs as supposed to the Met Mile at eight furlongs.

Nowadays a Grade 1 at 10 furlongs on the main is very rare, down to just 5 races in North America. The Gold Cup is probably the easiest to win (though the Big Cap is making great strides in that direction). City of Light already owns a Grade 1 win at 7 furlongs this year. If he pulls it off tomorrow, knowing the internet, there will be comparisons to Dr. Fager or...dare I say...Forego.

As icing on the cake, such a win would also potentially exempt him from having to run in the BC Classic if he doesn't overwhelm at the distance, since the BC has made it easier to duck with the advent of the BC Dirt Mile. In addition, I think this race will determine whether he targets the Pacific Classic next or ships for the Whitney and/or the Woodward.

A Grade 1 winner (in a single season) between 7 and 10 furlongs is a good qualification for HOY and for a stallion prospect. This would be moot if Justify wins the Triple Crown, but City of Light would still have a shot at 2 Eclipse awards.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

Nowadays a Grade 1 at 10 furlongs on the main is very rare, down to just 5 races in North America. The Gold Cup is probably the easiest to win (though the Big Cap is making great strides in that direction). City of Light already owns a Grade 1 win at 7 furlongs this year. If he pulls it off tomorrow, knowing the internet, there will be comparisons to Dr. Fager or...dare I say...Forego.

As icing on the cake, such a win would also potentially exempt him from having to run in the BC Classic if he doesn't overwhelm at the distance, since the BC has made it easier to duck with the advent of the BC Dirt Mile. In addition, I think this race will determine whether he targets the Pacific Classic next or ships for the Whitney and/or the Woodward.

A Grade 1 winner (in a single season) between 7 and 10 furlongs is a good qualification for HOY and for a stallion prospect. This would be moot if Justify wins the Triple Crown, but City of Light would still have a shot at 2 Eclipse awards.

Homer.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Homer.

I left it out, but I would like to see City of Light end up in both the Whitney and Woodward, so I hope he's an underwhelming winner tomorrow. I've never been impressed by the Pacific Classic. Besides the inaugural edition, there hasn't really been a memorable running other than Cigar's winning streak getting stuffed...and most people probably don't remember that fondly...

[cakes44]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

I left it out, but I would like to see City of Light end up in both the Whitney and Woodward, so I hope he's an underwhelming winner tomorrow. I've never been impressed by the Pacific Classic. Besides the inaugural edition, there hasn't really been a memorable running other than Cigar's winning streak getting stuffed...and most people probably don't remember that fondly...

Candy Ride vs MDO?!

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by cakes44

Candy Ride vs MDO?!

It was a track record performance, but it was a very short field (4 horses) and Candy Ride was basically unheralded at the time (though considerably hyped in CA) and then never started again. No Mineshaft, no Congaree, no Perfect Drift.

The odds-on Medaglia D'Oro had been bouncing around all year, cherry picking spots and taking 2-4 months between starts and failed yet again to see out a classic distance.

On top of that, it wasn't much of a confrontation. Candy Ride won by open lengths.

[Alabama Stakes]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

Nowadays a Grade 1 at 10 furlongs on the main is very rare, down to just 5 races in North America. The Gold Cup is probably the easiest to win (though the Big Cap is making great strides in that direction). City of Light already owns a Grade 1 win at 7 furlongs this year. If he pulls it off tomorrow, knowing the internet, there will be comparisons to Dr. Fager or...dare I say...Forego.

As icing on the cake, such a win would also potentially exempt him from having to run in the BC Classic if he doesn't overwhelm at the distance, since the BC has made it easier to duck with the advent of the BC Dirt Mile. In addition, I think this race will determine whether he targets the Pacific Classic next or ships for the Whitney and/or the Woodward.

A Grade 1 winner (in a single season) between 7 and 10 furlongs is a good qualification for HOY and for a stallion prospect. This would be moot if Justify wins the Triple Crown, but City of Light would still have a shot at 2 Eclipse awards.

Also the Met Mile, which was foolishly moved from Memorial Day, when it was huge, to being just another race on Belmont Day, doesn’t mean as much now.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Alabama Stakes

Also the Met Mile, which was foolishly moved from Memorial Day, when it was huge, to being just another race on Belmont Day, doesn’t mean as much now.

Yes, the Met Mile means less as a stallion maker now because it was moved to Belmont Day....as opposed to when it was held on a day when pretty much everyone is at a barbecue.

It might be time for you to move on from me. Do some soul searching.

[Alabama Stakes]

That was to Rollo. Not you , or Chad, or Todd.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by Alabama Stakes

Also the Met Mile, which was foolishly moved from Memorial Day, when it was huge, to being just another race on Belmont Day, doesn’t mean as much now.

I'm not sure that the Met Mile ceases to be huge simply because it is shifted a couple of weeks further into the calendar.

The positives outweigh the negatives with the move. Firstly, in this day of waning public and media interest (no more Budweiser Racing Across America on ESPN), tacking it onto a loaded Belmont Stakes day might be a form of self-preservation. Mega-stables pretty much control the vast majority of top horses and might toss an older horse into such a race if they have a contender for the featured Belmont Stakes. For example, would Hoppertunity show up for the Brooklyn--as opposed to today's Gold Cup at SA--if Baffert didn't have Justify pointing to the Belmont?

Secondly, Belmont can capitalize and highlight the return of the previous year's Triple Crown contenders if they race in big events on the same day as the current year's Classic. For example, prior Belmont winners Palace Malice and Tonalist returned at 4 on the Belmont undercard and took the Met Mile. That might open the door for a casual springtime fan to consider that these horses have careers beyond the Triple Crown...and maybe they'll be yearlong fans instead. Churchill does this with its older horse stakes on their Derby and Oaks days with the Alysheba and La Troienne.

Thirdly, moving the Met Mile fills a decades long gap in the NYRA stakes schedule where there was not an older horse stakes of sufficient importance in the month of June. In the past, they tried to bolster the Nassau County Handicap to fill the void, but it died along with the American Championship Racing Series. The Met Mile in early June fits rather nicely against the up-and-coming Westchester, which is quickly becoming a popular comeback race for the previous season's top horses. This year, Preakness winner Cloud Computing made an aborted comeback attempt, and in prior years horses like Palace Malice, Tonalist, Connect, To Honor And Serve, and Flat Out have used the race as a tune up for the Met and further beyond.

[Alabama Stakes]

Memorial Day weekend = Indy 500 & Met Mile. I'm just a dinosaur, I guess. Belmont Day was always a stellar card. They didn't need or want the Met Mile taking attention away from the big race.

[cakes44]

Originally Posted by Alabama Stakes

Memorial Day weekend = Indy 500 & Met Mile. I'm just a dinosaur, I guess. Belmont Day was always a stellar card. They didn't need or want the Met Mile taking attention away from the big race.

Agree with this. Doesn’t change the stallion making of the Met Mile whatsoever though.