here is what i think,start calling me a dummy

[moses]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

His Ky Derby performance was obviously very impressive. He set suicide fractions and still won relatively easily. In the Preakness the pace was average and he barely beat Bravazo. Barely beating Bravazo after setting dead average fractions is not impressive to me. Examples of impressive performances in the Preakness would be Funny Cide, Smarty Jones, Big Brown, and horses like that. And even those horses got beat in the Belmont.

This 2018 Preakness was one of the least impressive Preaknesses, if not the least impressive in the last 20 years IMO.

I don’t quite understand the contempt for Bravazo. As a bettor, sure he’s frustrating because it seems like there are races where he just doesn’t want to run. But when he’s on, he normally puts together a good race.

He’s now run well in both Triple Crown races. His performances deserve a little bit of respect.

As far as Justify’s performance in the Preakness, does anyone know the last time the Derby and Preakness were both run in wet conditions? Is there any way Justify didn’t come out of the Derby 100% (we heard the scratches / heel bruise stuff) and he didn’t take to the wet surface as well the second time around because of it?

[senator L]

If you didn't go to the wedding, don't go to the funeral

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by moses

I don’t quite understand the contempt for Bravazo. As a bettor, sure he’s frustrating because it seems like there are races where he just doesn’t want to run. But when he’s on, he normally puts together a good race.

He’s now run well in both Triple Crown races. His performances deserve a little bit of respect.

As far as Justify’s performance in the Preakness, does anyone know the last time the Derby and Preakness were both run in wet conditions? Is there any way Justify didn’t come out of the Derby 100% (we heard the scratches / heel bruise stuff) and he didn’t take to the wet surface as well the second time around because of it?

Bravazo is not a bad horse. He's obviously a decent horse. He won the Risen Star. But when you look at his best races compared to Justify's best races, Justify should beat him relatively easily (3-4 lengths minimum). Show me one race that he's ever run that would get within 2-3 lengths of Justify at his best.

In addition, what do you think past Triple Crown winners would have done to Bravazo? They would have crushed him. A horse who can barely beat Bravazo in the Preakness is unlikely to win the Triple Crown.

It is possible that Justify had an excuse that we are unaware of. It is conceivable that he wasn't crazy about the track. Not all sloppy tracks are alike. Maybe the pace was faster than it looked. On a day like that, the track condition can change over the course of the day. Maybe it was slower and more tiring by the time the Preakness was run. But I think those things are unlikely. In addition, it seem unlikely that he will improve coming back in just 3 weeks and running 1 1/2 miles. We will see.

[moses]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

Bravazo is not a bad horse. He's obviously a decent horse. He won the Risen Star. But when you look at his best races compared to Justify's best races, Justify should beat him relatively easily (3-4 lengths minimum). Show me one race that he's ever run that would get within 2-3 lengths of Justify at his best.

In addition, what do you think past Triple Crown winners would have done to Bravazo? They would have crushed him. A horse who can barely beat Bravazo in the Preakness is unlikely to win the Triple Crown.

It is possible that Justify had an excuse that we are unaware of. It is conceivable that he wasn't crazy about the track. Not all sloppy tracks are alike. Maybe the pace was faster than it looked. On a day like that, the track condition can change over the course of the day. Maybe it was slower and more tiring by the time the Preakness was run. But I think those things are unlikely. In addition, it seem unlikely that he will improve coming back in just 3 weeks and running 1 1/2 miles. We will see.

Ok. All of that is fair. I have to see who actually enters this race but there’s a good chance Justify will not be my top choice.

[Rupert Pupkin]

I saw some footage of Justify galloping the last couple of days at Churchill Downs. The horse looks absolutely great. The horse is amazing. He is like an iron horse. You would think he would show some signs of fatigue after the hard races he has had lately. But he doesn't seem to show any signs that he's had some hard races. His weight looks good, his energy is great and his stride looks great. I will still probably make a small bet against him just out of principle, but as good as he looks, I wouldn't be surprised in the least bit if he wins.

Here is footage of today's gallop: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FXaKmW7py5E

In terms of the way he galloped the last couple of days, he literally looks identical to the way he looked before the Ky Derby.

[ontheoutside]

did you happen to listen to the show Friday morning opening guest the mig listen to it this is why your analasis is foolish have a great day p.s. I would rather value a opinion of a guy with 30 years in game then one that has zero

[ontheoutside]

you and I have different opinions on this and steve and mig agree with me if you listened to show just wanted it to point it out so ill end this subject and lets move on to others your opinion will never sway me and mine [even with steve and mig agreeing with me] will not sway yours good luck with your betting knock them dead

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by ontheoutside

you and I have different opinions on this and steve and mig agree with me if you listened to show just wanted it to point it out so ill end this subject and lets move on to others your opinion will never sway me and mine [even with steve and mig agreeing with me] will not sway yours good luck with your betting knock them dead

I listened to the interview. I agree with practically everything they said. As they both said, they think the horse looks great right now. I agree 100%. As they both said, we have seen horses who looked unbeatable after winning the first two legs, yet got beat in the Belmont. As Mig and Steve said, many people including myself were not particularly impressed with Justify's Preakness performance. As Steve said, right after the race and the next few days after the race, many people including myself were thinking the horse was a great bet against in the Belmont.

But now that I've seen how good the horse is training, I'm not nearly as eager to bet against him. I was thinking the reason that he didn't run that well in the Preakness was because he was probably tired. But a tired horse is not going to look the way he looks right now. So the question is why wasn't he more impressive in the Preakness. I think your analysis and Mig's analysis may have been right. I may have underestimated the difficulty of his trip. I thought he had a relatively easy trip. But as you guys said, he was head and head with a very good horse. And maybe the pace was faster than I thought. On a day when it's raining all day, the track can change quite a bit over the course of the day. The fractions didn't seem particularly fast to me, but they may have actually been faster than I thought. In addition, in hindsight I think he may not have handled the track that well.

We may see the real Justify on a fast track in the Belmont. There is still some question about the distance but there is a question about the distance for practically any horse running 1 1/2 miles. Whether I bet against Justify will depend on his price. Now that I have seen how well he is training, I think the chances of him winning have gone way up. By the same token, many great horses have gotten beaten in the Belmont. If he goes off at even money, I doubt I will bet against him. But if he is a heavy odds-on favorite, I will probably take a moderate shot against him. I no longer have a strong opinion on the race. I would not be surprised to see Justify win easily. By the same token, I would not be surprised to see him get beat.

Here is an interesting article on the case against Justify:
http://www.drf.com/news/watchmaker-b...-story-justify