5/4: Churchill Downs (144th Kentucky Oaks Day)

[Kasept]

CHURCHILL DOWNS ~ 144TH KENTUCKY OAKS DAY


POST-SCRATCHES


1st: OC/N2X, 3yo-F, 8.5f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #6 Go Google Yourself 8-5 3rd
Best Value: #1 First Alternate 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #4 She's Pretty Lucky 3-1 WON ($7.60)


2nd: MSW, F&M-3+, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #7 Dabinett 5-2 4th
Best Value: #9 Pachinko 8-1 5th
Next Best: #4 Killay 10-1 WON ($13.20)
Exotics Use: #2 Wild N Ready 4-1 3rd


3rd: MSW, 3+, 6f (P5, P3, DD)

Best Value: #6 Keros 5-1 7th
Next Best: #1 Industrialist 3-1 5th
Exotics Use: #8 Bugle Notes 5-2 WON ($3.80)
Super Add: #4 Bueno Bueno Bueno 20-1 2nd


4th: OC/N2X, 3+, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Keep Quiet 4-1 6th
Next Best: #11 Krampus 3-1 5th
Exotics Use: #12 Saham 5-1 2nd
Super Add: #5 Thatcher Street 10-1 9th


5th: 63rd Eight Belles (G2), 3yo-F, 7f (P3, DD)

If Mia Mischief has learned to rate at all, she should beat these..

Most Likely: #3 Mia Mischief 5-2 WON ($5.00)
Best Value: #5 Talk Veuve to Me 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #6 Gas Station Sushi 2-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #1 Amy's Challenge 5-2 7th


P4 Grid:

2: 7 (A), 4-9 (B), 2-3 (C)
3: 1-6-8 (A), - (B), 4-10 (C)
4: 1-11 (A), 5-12 (B), - (C)
5: 1-3-5-6 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x3x4x4 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 1x3x2x4 = $24 ($12 for .50)


6th: 33rd La Troienne (G1), F&M-4+, 8.5f (P6, P3, DD)

Salty runs here..

Most Likely: #8 Martini Glass 6-1 3rd
Next Best: #3 Abel Tasman 1-1 4th
Best Value: #6 Tiger Moth 15-1 5th
Exotics Use: #1 Salty 3-1 WON ($10.40)


7th: 24th Twin Spires Turf Sprint (G3), 3+, 5f-T (P5, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #9 Bucchero 7-2 3rd
Next Best: #7 Vision Perfect 3-1 6th
Best Value: #5 Latent Revenge 15-1 9th
Exotics Use: #1 Delectation 6-1 4th


P4 Grid:

3: 1-6-8 (A), - (B), 2-4-10 (C)
4: 1-11 (A), 5-12 (B), 8 (C)
5: 3 (A), - (B), 1-5-7 (C)
6: 3-8 (A), 1-6 (B), 5-7 (C)
7: 7-9 (A), - (B), 1-5 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x4x1x4x2 = 96 x .50 = $48
All A's: 3x2x1x2x2 = 24 x .50 = $12


P4 Grid:

4: 1-11 (A), 5-12 (B), 8 (C)
5: 3 (A), 5 (B), 1-7 (C)
6: 1-3-6-8 (A), - (B), - (C)
7: 5-7-9 (A), - (B), 1-2-8 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x2x4x3 = 96 x .50 = $48
All A's: 2x1x4x3 = 24 x .50 = $12


8th: 15th Alysheba (G2), 4+, 8.5f (P4, P3, DD)

Interestingly, Always Dreaming had one of those 'Derby works' we look for and may be ready for an A effort 2nd off the break..

Most Likely: #3 Always Dreaming 3-1 6th
Next Best: #5 Hoppertunity 3-1 4th
Best Value: #4 Backyard Heaven 9-2 WON ($6.40)
Exotics Use: #1 Good Samaritan 5-2 3rd


9th: OC/N1X, 3yo-F, 7f (P5, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Electric Forest 3-1 6th
Next Best: #10 Sworn Silence 8-1 8th
Best Value: #3 C P Quality 10-1 9th
Exotics Use: #4 Upset Brewing 9-2 3rd


10th: 34th Edgewood (G3), 3yo-F, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Best Value: #7 Toinette 12-1 WON ($12.80)
Next Best: #11 Rushing Fall 4-5 2nd
Exotics Use: #6 Daddy Is a Legend 9-2 3rd
Super Add: #3 Altea 6-1 5th


11th: 144th Kentucky Oaks (G1), 3yo-F, 9f (KO-TC-KD P3, KO-KD DBL, DBL, P3, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #10 Midnight Bisou 5-2 3rd
Best Value: #5 Wonder Gadot 20-1 2nd
Next Best: #2 Coach Rocks 12-1 7th
Exotics Use: #14 Monomoy Girl 2-1 WON ($7.20)
Super/Hi-5: #13 Eskimo Kisses 15-1 4th


P5 Grid:

7: 7-9 (A), 5 (B), 1-8-10 (C)
8: 3-4-5 (A), 1-7 (B), - (C)
9: 2 (A), 10 (B), 3-4-6-9 (C)
10: 3-6-7-11 (A), - (B), - (C)
11: 10 (A), - (B), 2-3-13-14 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x5x2x4x1 = 120 x .50 = $60
All A's: 2x3x1x4x1 = 24 x .50 = $12


P4 Grid:

8: 3-4-5 (A), 1-7 (B), - (C)
9: 2 (A), - (B), 3-4-6-10 (C)
10: 3-6-7-11 (A), - (B), - (C)
11: 2-5-10 (A), 7-13-14 (B), 3-11 (C)

Simple (A+B): 5x1x4x5 = 100 x .50 = $50
All A's: 3x1x4x3 = 36 x .50 = $18


Oaks-Turf Classic-Derby P3 Grid:

KO: 10 (A), 2-5 (B), 13-14 (C)
TC: 1-3-9-10 (A), - (B), 4-5-6-7 (C)
KD: 7 (A), 6-14 (B), 5-11 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x4x3 = $36
All A's: 1x4x1 = 4 x $5 = $20


Oaks-Derby DBL:

KO: 2-5-10 (A), 13-14 (B), 7-11 (C)
KD: 7 (A), 6-14 (B), 5-11 (C)

Simple (A+B): 5x3 = 15 x $2 = $30
All A's: 3x1 = 3 x $10 = $30


12th: OC/N1X, 3yo-F, 8.5f (DD)

Best Value: #8 Ox Eyed Daisy 9-2 -
Next Best: #6 She's a Julie 7-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #10 Gio Game 3-1 WON ($5.20)
Super Add: #2 Princess of the Nyl 8-1 4th


13th: MSW, F&M-3+, 1m

Most Likely: #2 Rizzoli 5-2 WON ($4.40)
Next Best: #6 Tequila Sunrise 4-1 3rd
Best Value: #4 Auspicious Babe 12-1 7th
Exotics Use: #11 Ipanema Beach 3-1 2nd


P5 Grid:

9: 2 (A), 10 (B), 3-4-6-9 (C)
10: 3-6-7-11 (A), - (B), - (C)
11: 2-5-10 (A), 13-14 (B), 7-11 (C)
12: 6-8-10 (A), 2-5 (B), 4-7-9 (C)
13: 2 (A), - (B), 4-6-11 (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x4x5x5x1 = 200 x .50 = $100
All A's: 1x4x3x3x1 = 36 x .50 = $18


P4 Grid:

10: 3-6-7-11 (A), - (B), - (C)
11: 2-5-10 (A), 13-14 (B), 7-11 (C)
12: 6-8-10 (A), 2-5 (B), 4-7-9 (C)
13: 2 (A), - (B), 1-4-6 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x5x5x1 = 100 x .50 = $50
All A's: 3x3x3x1 = 27 x .50 = $13.50

$.50 Pick 4 (7-14-10-2) Paid $76.60


Good luck!
Steve

[Kasept]

LATE SCR/CHG'S

[ADJMK]

Nice push by Privman on Will Call. Pays to tune in

[hondo]

Hi steve

Bit late but good luck specially on derby day. Do a great job and always enjoyed the lead up to the derby. Let’s finish the day out on the winning note and then onto tomorrow thanks again Steve.

[tanner12oz]

Lots of red font today..some good reads. Good luck tomorrow

[alphanumeric1]

Year after year this seems to be the hardest piece of information to find. Where can I find willpays?

https://www.kentuckyderby.com/upload..._Will_Pays.pdf

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by alphanumeric1

Year after year this seems to be the hardest piece of information to find. Where can I find willpays?

[ontheoutside]

are your Kentucky derby day plays up yet?

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by ontheoutside

are your Kentucky derby day plays up yet?

Working on them. Just left Downs to pick Tina up at the airport..

Should have selections done tonight and multi-race plays in the morning.. http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=64289

[ontheoutside]

I hope you hit one did you happen to play your super in big race today?

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by ontheoutside

I hope you hit one did you happen to play your super in big race today?

Almost never play supers. Had the TRI and EXA. Wonder Gadot winning was a much better result for me. Was a decent enough day. Toinette was a great result. Got tripped up badly in the 4th and 9th. Hope you did well! Seems most people got something, somewhere today. Oaks Day always feels like a day of treading water for tomorrow..