Convince me on Justify...

[cakes44]

...that Smith won’t think he’s on Holy Bull AGAIN and go Bodemeister/Palice Malace. I love the horse, but the old “won’t take away anything he does easily” scares me. Other than that, I dig me some Audible.

[Alabama Stakes]

I like audible for sure, but look at the physicality of Justify if you need convincing. He is a big bad man who looks the part.

[declansharbor]

Cakes & Stakes ...... have me putting Good Magic up & scaling back a tad on Justify!

Freddy Mo’s gotta be just THRILLED!

[Alabama Stakes]

Byk Boss man also on Justify. I’m on his auto fade list so he must really like him

[tjfla]

Originally Posted by Alabama Stakes

Byk Boss man also on Justify. I’m on his auto fade list so he must really like him

I am on the Audible wagon. Fits most of my "Win" requirements and the 1 he doesn't fit is DI under 4.00 however Last 3 Winners ALL were OVER 4.00!!

I was ready to toss Justify especially after saw the horse who only ran at 1 track thing but Bossman is all over Justify so no clue???

[jms62]

He faced fields of 5-5-7 and has led nearly every step in every race... Now facing 19 other horses without ever having to face traffic I just don't see it. Fact that Steve does has me doubting myself.

[knickslions2]

Originally Posted by jms62

He faced fields of 5-5-7 and has led nearly every step in every race... Now facing 19 other horses without ever having to face traffic I just don't see it. Fact that Steve does has me doubting myself.

I'm waiting to see the draw tomorrow and currently have him as a B horse. He can win but feel others are more ready for this type of race.

[Alabama Stakes]

Bolt D’oro is a very good hoss. Justify was playing with him. He’s big and fast enough to get a good run in the big field.

[jms62]

Originally Posted by knickslions2

I'm waiting to see the draw tomorrow and currently have him as a B horse. He can win but feel others are more ready for this type of race.

Still early for me too but Mendelssohn's Breeders Cup Trip vs 13 others and then proving he can win on Dirt is where I am leaning at this moment.

[cakes44]

Originally Posted by jms62

He faced fields of 5-5-7 and has led nearly every step in every race... Now facing 19 other horses without ever having to face traffic I just don't see it. Fact that Steve does has me doubting myself.

Yes, his trips have been Brother Derek-esque. With you on Steve though. He is usually as locked in as anyone with information and on how the horses look going into the Derby.

[Alabama Stakes]

Beat a filly , who was another 3 lengths clear of the rest of that field in Dubai

[declansharbor]

Originally Posted by Alabama Stakes

Bolt D’oro is a very good hoss. Justify was playing with him. He’s big and fast enough to get a good run in the big field.

Justify was left all alone on the lead and amassed a ton of buffer space between himself & Bolt. No way Bolt was going to reel him in that day. This Saturday, with a hotly contested early set of fractions, Justify might be softened up just enough. Who knows?? We will in a few days!

[saratogadew]

Originally Posted by jms62

Still early for me too but Mendelssohn's Breeders Cup Trip vs 13 others and then proving he can win on Dirt is where I am leaning at this moment.

^This^

[Mike A]

The filly that ran 2nd to Mendelssohn is 15-1 in the Oaks.
If Justify has any traffic issues I believe Smith will go at least 8 wide turning for home, no way he goes ala Bo-rail

[cakes44]

Originally Posted by Mike A

The filly that ran 2nd to Mendelssohn is 15-1 in the Oaks.
If Justify has any traffic issues I believe Smith will go at least 8 wide turning for home, no way he goes ala Bo-rail

Could not agree more. That’s the stuff that scares me. He’ll go path-of-least-resistance at all costs.

[richard burch]

Got to wait for the post positions before can even think about this. I hope Justify and Audible take a lot of money.

[ADJMK]

Read this but don't know if its true. "No Storm Cat sire line has ever won the KD. They're 0 for 51 in the KD."
He's a big strong great looking horse but the distance gets to him? Won't be the first horse that's a monster up to 1 1/8 but then ??

[Kitan]

Originally Posted by ADJMK

Read this but don't know if its true. "No Storm Cat sire line has ever won the KD. They're 0 for 51 in the KD."
He's a big strong great looking horse but the distance gets to him? Won't be the first horse that's a monster up to 1 1/8 but then ??

A few years ago the stat was that Storm Cat anywhere in the pedigree was 0 for 40 something, then there were back to back winners in Pharoah and Nyquist (both had Storm Cat on the dam side). Now the stat has become 0 for 51 on the sire line, but he's had a few run second in the Derby.

[Secretriat34]

Bolt shut it down 50 yards out to save stamina in the SA derby..no whip..Justified gained a length. In the running line, Bolt Ran with justify to get the colt a chance to look into Justify's eyes...then he faded back to save stamina for 144. In kentucky, Bolt won't be held back.

Big storms here in Chicago last night, so the satellite Tv was not 100%, which gave me time to read the paper guides etc, that I have been previewing for some time.
The magnificent 7…you guide has them box A and Box B.
I doubt the exacta will be outside these 7.
Getting to my picks.
I like BOLT to be ITM…no doubt.
His runs with Mckenzie are going to be legendary as time goes by.
Bolt is the west coast pick
Vinno has the curlin sire and the streetcry damsire…wow
Vinno has a better final time at 9f than MAGIC and has a better beyer string than MAGIC.
MAGIC however is following his juvy season as far as beyer progression, and his third back …just like his third race at 2 in the BCJ will be a new top for him speed figure wise…the derby will be a big race for him.
I have warmed up to Vinno, and looking at audibles pedigree..wonder if all10 migh tbe too far.
10f is a specialty distance, and many fade 100 yards out..perhaps Audible will

I just can’t get past the way BOLT motors and his fierce competitiveness.
Ruiz a small operation..this may put his name on the map so to speak.
I guess in my heart ( which is a stupid way to bet) BOLT is my pick.
I urge you to revisit Mendy’s analysis..a $3,000,000 Sale topper of yearlings..but this is the KICKER.
He is half brother to BEHOLDER…from the same damn..the damn was the dam of the year 2016.
Beholder defeated the horses ay 10f in the Pac Classic. So he may be a scat daddy, but he has the distance from mama..and the speed of scat.
BOLT…itm…MY MONEY GOES WITH HIM LIVE OR DIE
VINNO
MAGIC
MENDY
JUSTIFY ..MOON..AUDIBLE…
THE EXACTA IS IN THIS GROUP

[Secretriat34]

Originally Posted by Alabama Stakes

I like audible for sure, but look at the physicality of Justify if you need convincing. He is a big bad man who looks the part.

Well when you’re sitting back in your rose pink Cadillac
Making bets on Kentucky Derby day


DEAD FLOWERS...ROLLING STONES - STICKY FINGERS 1971

Well when you're sitting there in your silk upholstered chair
Talkin' to some rich folk that you know
Well I hope you won't see me in my ragged company
Well, you know I could never be alone

Take me down little Susie, take me down
I know you think you're the queen of the underground
And you can send me dead flowers every morning
Send me dead flowers by the mail
Send me dead flowers to my wedding
And I won't forget to put roses on your grave

Well when you're sitting back in your rose pink Cadillac
Making bets on Kentucky Derby Day
Ah, I'll be in my basement room with a needle and a spoon
And another girl to take my pain away

Take me down little Susie, take me down
I know you think you're the queen of the underground
And you can send me dead flowers every morning
Send me dead flowers by the mail
Send me dead flowers to my wedding
And I won't forget to put roses on your grave