Fixed Race at Fg Xmas Eve

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by bellsbendboy

Getting back to Direct Splash you and/or Brianspenc said that DS ran a life time top by a couple of TG points. ( He did). Question: How many horses ever have run a new lifetime top by ten to fifteen lengths in their 17th start after an X x x pattern? Answer: None.

Can you speak some to how impossible it may be? I didn't find it completely impossible at all after digging into the TG charts.

Are you implying that he ran a new lifetime top by 10 lengths (you say 'he did')? That is implying that his TG figure is going to be somewhere around a 0 or a -1 as at that distance each TG point equals roughly one length. We all know that the likelihood of his TG number coming back at 0 or below 0 is about ten trillion to one. We also know that he would be running in graded stakes races were that the case.

So how do you create this conjecture that he ran a lifetime top by "ten to fifteen" lengths?

Let's leave the anecdotes out in favor or numbers and handicapping for a minute. The stories are all good and great and I enjoy them terribly, but the reality remains that on paper -- he wasn't entirely hopeless. Wasn't the first $100+ horse...won't be the last. Doesn't make them all cheaters.