Hawkish

[RHT2004]

Monster.
Belmont Derby winner or runner up behind that Chad monster.
Either way, this horse is top class.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by RHT2004

Monster.
Belmont Derby winner or runner up behind that Chad monster.
Either way, this horse is top class.

Are you sure he'll stay? He folded like cheap suit when held off the pace in the Palm Beach at 8.5f. Looks to need a well timed ride if he can only sustain his bid for barely a furlong. The winner of that race, Maraud, was a second tier turf juvenile last year and was quickly put back in his place at Keeneland last out when buried by Analyze It (albeit on a yielding course).

In the allowance, Hawkish ran down a third tier turf juvenile from last year, Morrison, who hadn't been out in nearly 4 months and was trying something he'd never attempted (setting the early pace). He has a lot to do to earn a win or a placing in a $1 million race at 10 furlongs.

Meanwhile, on the west coast, Artie Schiller has another son named Fibonacci who has run off with a maiden and a first condition allowance. He has romped in his last 2 from off the pace, both races at 9f. I'd say he's got more of a look for the longer trip than Hawkish at this stage, but both need to confirm their class in a graded stakes before the Belmont Derby.

[RHT2004]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

Are you sure he'll stay? He folded like cheap suit when held off the pace in the Palm Beach at 8.5f. Looks to need a well timed ride if he can only sustain his bid for barely a furlong. The winner of that race, Maraud, was a second tier turf juvenile last year and was quickly put back in his place at Keeneland last out when buried by Analyze It (albeit on a yielding course).

In the allowance, Hawkish ran down a third tier turf juvenile from last year, Morrison, who hadn't been out in nearly 4 months and was trying something he'd never attempted (setting the early pace). He has a lot to do to earn a win or a placing in a $1 million race at 10 furlongs.

Meanwhile, on the west coast, Artie Schiller has another son named Fibonacci who has run off with a maiden and a first condition allowance. He has romped in his last 2 from off the pace, both races at 9f. I'd say he's got more of a look for the longer trip than Hawkish at this stage, but both need to confirm their class in a graded stakes before the Belmont Derby.

Watch that Palm Beach replay again. Very early move IMO.I think the jockeys hand was forced.
For what its worth, I like Fibonacci

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by RHT2004

Watch that Palm Beach replay again. Very early move IMO.I think the jockeys hand was forced.

I agree, but he also caved the final 1/6th rather than simply hung late. Went from contending for the win to off-the-board in the blink of an eye. From what he's shown thus far he has a quick burst of acceleration and that's it. That's what I meant by needing a well-timed ride.

The problem is, the horse has quite a bit of pace and may not settle enough for his rider to wait until the last minute. In the Palm Beach, it looked like he had to be checked sharply by the jock entering the back stretch to stay off the first flight.

Long story short, class or no class, he looks to me like a miler and the Belmont Derby is a mile and a quarter.

[blackthroatedwind]

He may have distance limitations, but using any effort on that supposed turf course at Gulfstream as a judge of a horse's talents is dubious at best ( and he was forced to make a move that pretty much never works on any turf course under those circumstances ).

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

He may have distance limitations, but using any effort on that supposed turf course at Gulfstream as a judge of a horse's talents is dubious at best ( and he was forced to make a move that pretty much never works on any turf course under those circumstances ).

At the 1/16th pole in the Palm Beach, when the dust clouds really started to coalesce into giant blizzard of dirt, I thought about putting a disclaimer in about the condition of the course, but when Hawkish hit a brick wall and couldn't even save the show spot, I didn't think it really mattered anymore.

Plus, I'd have more of a dog in this fight if Fibonacci was sired by Timo and not Artie Schiller.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

At the 1/16th pole in the Palm Beach, when the dust clouds really started to coalesce into giant blizzard of dirt, I thought about putting a disclaimer in about the condition of the course, but when Hawkish hit a brick wall and couldn't even save the show spot, I didn't think it really mattered anymore.

Plus, I'd have more of a dog in this fight if Fibonacci was sired by Timo and not Artie Schiller.

Yeah, you may never live that one down.