Weekend Stakes Beyer: Mendelssohn 106; Audible 99

[Kitan]

Originally Posted by knickslions2

I thought the horse ran very well but had everything perfect. Pace wasn't very fast, field was not good and track bias for speed. The derby will be much different conditions and its a tall task to come to US and win it. I most likely won't have him on any ticket unless a few of the stars here drop out in the next few weeks.

I have watched almost all the races from the Carnival live, and although there was still a bit of bias, it was nowhere near as bad as it can be, especially the way it was on Super Saturday. On a completely fair track he still wins by double digits and still demolishes Reride, even if he himself isn't a top 3yo. I agree the field wasn't great, which is why I was dubious about Gold Town in the first place, but the filly looks to have ability and I guess we will find out more in the Oaks.

Don't agree, however, that the pace wasn't very fast. The first quarters are always "slow" because the run-up time is virtually non-existent. He put up solid quarter splits after that, putting in 23 and change quarters from 2-4f and 4-6f. I can admit that I have not been following the Triple Crown Trail, but from looking at the Future Wager PPs and knowing that the pace has generally been much slower since the implementation of the point system, with a good post draw he can definitely get another great trip. The kickback will be much less at Churchill anyways, so he may not necessarily need to lead.

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

You have to remember that Mendelssohn is owned by Coolmore.

The overarching goal for Coolmore is not to win the Kentucky Derby, but rather to produce stallions.

A track record performance at the Group 1 level with an 18 1/2 length winning margin? Regardless of how he performs at Churchill (if he performs at all), Mendelssohn has gotten his "stallion making" race.

The race was a Group 2, and even if it was a G1 the value would still be much, much less than a Kentucky Derby win. He is a G1 BC Juv Turf winner and a half to Beholder and Into Mischief ergo he is already stallion made.

Merlinsky has a lot of correct sentiments, especially when Ryan Moore reported he was still green down the stretch. What's the point of letting a young runner gallop under his own steam when they won't learn much from it. To win the KY Derby you have to work hard for all 2 minutes of the race; there usually is no coasting to victory. There are some things I still question the connections about, but their race preparation is one that they usually get spot on.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by Kitan

The race was a Group 2, and even if it was a G1 the value would still be much, much less than a Kentucky Derby win. He is a G1 BC Juv Turf winner and a half to Beholder and Into Mischief ergo he is already stallion made.

Thanks for the correction. Something I omitted that I should have pointed was that he won on dirt, which makes him a Group/Graded winner on both surfaces, something else Coolmore strives for.

I realize that the Kentucky Derby is more important than any other race Mendelssohn can win on the main track, but again, I don't think the Coolmore people hold their breath waiting to win that sort of race in North America.

Coolmore often simply tosses horses in their main US targets (on the dirt, that is), the BC Juvenile, BC Classic, and Kentucky Derby hoping for some blind luck. Mendelssohn was close to starting in the Juvenile on the dirt but O'Brien didn't want to throw another curve ball at the colt who was starting to progress off a runner-up effort in the Dewhurst at odds of 50-1. Instead, he tossed in Group 1 winner US Navy Flag, and completed that one's massive burnout (he made 11 starts last year at 2--I have no idea if he is supposed to return). In addition, O'Brien has had great success in the BC Juvenile Turf with 2nd tier juveniles. In fact, Mendelssohn was his 4th winner of that race and the first to ever win another race subsequently.

What is interesting to note is that it is highly likely that the race strategy for Coolmore dirt attemps from now on will be an all-out send from the gate. US Navy Flag was sent in the Juvenile as was Mendelssohn in the UAE Derby. Churchill made an attempt in the BC Classic but was pinballed off of West Coast and Mubtaahij under the wire the first time 'round.

[knickslions2]

Originally Posted by Kitan

I have watched almost all the races from the Carnival live, and although there was still a bit of bias, it was nowhere near as bad as it can be, especially the way it was on Super Saturday. On a completely fair track he still wins by double digits and still demolishes Reride, even if he himself isn't a top 3yo. I agree the field wasn't great, which is why I was dubious about Gold Town in the first place, but the filly looks to have ability and I guess we will find out more in the Oaks.

Don't agree, however, that the pace wasn't very fast. The first quarters are always "slow" because the run-up time is virtually non-existent. He put up solid quarter splits after that, putting in 23 and change quarters from 2-4f and 4-6f. I can admit that I have not been following the Triple Crown Trail, but from looking at the Future Wager PPs and knowing that the pace has generally been much slower since the implementation of the point system, with a good post draw he can definitely get another great trip. The kickback will be much less at Churchill anyways, so he may not necessarily need to lead.



The race was a Group 2, and even if it was a G1 the value would still be much, much less than a Kentucky Derby win. He is a G1 BC Juv Turf winner and a half to Beholder and Into Mischief ergo he is already stallion made.

Merlinsky has a lot of correct sentiments, especially when Ryan Moore reported he was still green down the stretch. What's the point of letting a young runner gallop under his own steam when they won't learn much from it. To win the KY Derby you have to work hard for all 2 minutes of the race; there usually is no coasting to victory. There are some things I still question the connections about, but their race preparation is one that they usually get spot on.

Appreciate your point of view Kitan especially being there live. Like I said the horse ran very well but still feel he had a perfect set up and has a lot to over come to win in Kentucky. There are some fast pace horses this year from what I've seen so far. Hope all is well

[Dunbar]

At this point, before the next round of preps, I would gladly take Mendelssohn head-to-head in the Derby vs Good Magic or Audible or any prospect other than Bolt, Justify, or Magnum Moon. (That assumes McKinzie is no longer a Derby prospect--he's absent from the listed horses in Pool 4 of the Future Wager.)

Mendelssohn has already run further than any horse in the Derby field will have run, he's shown he can travel and win in the US, and the 106 BSF suggests he's competitive with the best of this class.

[blackthroatedwind]

The five week turnaround from Dubai is of no concern?

[Kitan]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

I realize that the Kentucky Derby is more important than any other race Mendelssohn can win on the main track, but again, I don't think the Coolmore people hold their breath waiting to win that sort of race in North America.

Coolmore often simply tosses horses in their main US targets (on the dirt, that is), the BC Juvenile, BC Classic, and Kentucky Derby hoping for some blind luck.

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

The five week turnaround from Dubai is of no concern?

I can only speak for myself, but my comments were focused towards those somewhat disregarding his performance on Saturday. I have not thought about who I would pick for the Derby and at 6-1 he's not worth betting in futures, but at the moment I'm not too concerned about the turnaround. Let's look at the progression of horses O'Brien has run in the KY Derby.

Castle Gandolfo: only had one 8f prep a month out from the Derby and was running on dirt for the first time.
Johannesburg: only had one 7f prep a month out from the Derby.
Master of Hounds: ran 5th in Derby (first dirt start; Kingmambo x Sadler's Wells) and after only having one run that year (UAE Derby).
Daddy Long Legs: had only run/won the UAE Derby, and was previously beaten 19 lengths in the BC Juv Dirt.
Lines of Battle: ran 7th in Derby (first dirt start; War Front x Arch) and after only having one run that year (UAE Derby).

So, they have recently had two turf-bred runners run decent Derby races on their dirt debuts after coming from their lone prep race in Dubai. While I don't disagree that Coolmore is a breeding operation and at times just throws horses in dirt races for the sake of it, there is no question that they are also gunning for the prestige of beating Godolphin and the others to that elusive KY Derby win. They have undoubtedly learned from past experiences, as any top stable would. Mendelssohn is completely different to those that have run in the past. He has an elite dirt pedigree, has won on the surface, has shipped to the USA and won, is a G1 winner, and had been meticulously aimed/prepped for the KY Derby. They are not just hoping and giving him a chance; this has been his goal all winter/spring.

Originally Posted by knickslions2

Appreciate your point of view Kitan especially being there live. Like I said the horse ran very well but still feel he had a perfect set up and has a lot to over come to win in Kentucky. There are some fast pace horses this year from what I've seen so far. Hope all is well

Meant that I have watched the races in real time (e.g. simulcast) with the exception of this past weekend! Hope all is well there also.

[RolloTomasi]

Mendelssohn is completely different to those that have run in the past.

That's a bit exaggerated. Rather than a single prep, Mendelssohn has 2 with the first coming in a modest all-weather stakes where he just did enough to handle the 2 stablemates who followed him to Dubai and got trounced. I can't imagine that race was any more important than the private trials conducted at Ballydoyle with their past Derby hopes.

He has an elite dirt pedigree, has won on the surface, has shipped to the USA and won, is a G1 winner, and had been meticulously aimed/prepped for the KY Derby.

The sire of Mendelssohn is hardly elite dirt from a stud record perspective. While Scat Daddy did all his running on dirt (and was injured reportedly when trounced in the Kentucky Derby), he has sired exactly zero Grade 1 winners on the main track in NA. He was clearly more adept as a turf sire. Furthermore, Scat Daddy was also the sire of Daddy Long Legs and Scat Daddy himself was a son of Johannesburg, both of whom were likewise Coolmore Derby duds.

As for his Grade 1 status, the BC Juvenile Turf has been remarkably unproductive with respect to subsequent Grade 1 winners. Oscar Performance and Bobby's Kitten (who won the equally unproductive BC Turf Sprint) are the only subsequent Grade 1 winners from all the top finishers of that race. In fact, aside from Mendelssohn's 2 wins, only Oscar Performance (3 straight stakes) and Hootenanny (2 allowance wins) have won more than one race after winning the BC Juvenile Turf. Actually, 7 of the 11 winners of that race were winless the rest of their careers.