TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL: Probables/Possibles

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by MichiganMattA

Here’s a hypothetical question: Let’s say that Bolt, McKinzie and Justify all line up in the SA Derby. There are 8 horses total entered so you can spread the remaining points evenly through those 5... what is your morning line ?

My morning line with close to the 15.43% SA takeout would be:

Bolt 9-5
McK 9-5
Just 9-5
each other horse 50-1

If you're asking about a morning line with zero takeout, I'd make it:

Bolt 2.2-1
McK 2.2-1
Just 2.2-1
each other horse 80-1

(Those "2.2-1"s would obviously look like 2-1 if restricted to the usual ML constraints.)

Justify may have more talent, but Bolt and McKinzie have more seasoning. I can't separate them in the chance to win the next outing, if by some oddity all three were in the same race.