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#1
12-25-2006, 05:26 PM
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I think what you've written is an uncalled for hit piece and frankly very libelous. You have called out someone by name as using a buzzer with nothing other than circumstantial evidence? Nowhere did you mention even watching the replay. You got this guy guilty because of something that happened with the jockeys father 16 years ago? Watch the race, the guy does nothing but ride him hard right from the gate. I have seen thousands of unexplained results on sloppy track like this one. You said you don't have an axe to grind but I find that hard to believe. Why else would you exagerate and say that in most of his starts he is never in the same zip code as the winner? Prior to yesterdays race he had a record of 1 win, 1 place, 3 shows in ten races for this year earning $54K. How did he manage that if he is never in the same zip code. If you look at his form there is definitely a break after the race in May where obviously something went wrong. Before that he was routinely in the mix in state bred allowance and stakes. After the time off he came back twice with wraps and finished far back. Then he got another break and he came back at Delta without the wraps and SURPRISE, he shows improvement. In fact he shows better late pace then he has since February when he was third in a stakes race. This is your clue that he might be on the way back and ready for a peak effort. the off track just sealed the deal for him. I only wish I'd have paid closer attention to these details. I played the race using the horse that finished second. That is how you catch a longshot you look for little telltale signs, clues that there is a turnaround coming. All of your evidence about times and beyers is garbage. You cannot use that type of analysis for a day like yesterday. The conditions were continously in flux. Your post is one of the biggest loads of crap I have seen. I only wish Mr. Carmouche would seek legal remedy for your libel. You accused him of a crime and apparently for some reason want to defame him. 
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#2
12-25-2006, 05:53 PM
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yeah, there's an investigation into some jocks. and things have been known to happen. but to call out a jock by name and accuse him of cheating with nothing more to go on than a long shot won....better you than me, bbb.
__________________
Books serve to show a man that those original thoughts of his aren't very new at all. Abraham Lincoln
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#3
12-25-2006, 05:59 PM
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unusual winners and results. Plus throw in the slop and also maybe the horse was feeling great this day, doesn't surprize me at all.
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#4
12-25-2006, 06:04 PM
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as some have said here state bred races are highly unpredictable most of the time! lol dont believe me just watch alotta these ILL bottom mcl's. to use a battery effectively there are alotta ways it can be done. to most likely have any chance of being effective the horse has to be schooled with it in the morning, keep in mind a battery is illegal anywhere on track grounds. you know how many horses are schooled with a battery in the morning but the rider doesnt carry1 in the afternoon at the races for the horse? you ask well then how can the rider implement the battery in the race without actually carrying on? well sometimes just digging a fingernail into the the horses neck or using a buckle will make the horse believe its being hit with the battery like it was in the morning. last but least if you really wanna see some jocks with batteries just watch QH racing, them boys are double barreled with the zappers LOL
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#5
12-25-2006, 08:49 PM
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Billy Patin may have carried a buzzer but I don' believe Valhol needed any help to defeat those horses. I always thought the way a race was fixed wasn't by miraculously improving a non-contender but by shoving sponges up the nose of a favorite or some other tom foolery.
Seems like the place to throw a race is on the back stretch. Got a closer.. stick him up on the pace got a horse that needs the lead.. don't let him get it.. etc. I really don't believe that they're cheating. Not that anyone here has said it but I overheard someone at the OTB proclaim that the Stewarts want a long shot to win. I don't see how that is true. They want favorites to win so more people are happy and come back. I've had long shots taken down just because they were long shots. I've seen the inquiry light up immediately after a long shot won a race. They wanted to take him down but couldn't find a reason. Not that they need one. I can still see Guidry popping up out of the saddle like he was cut off when he was no where...
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ΜΟΛΩΝ ΛΑΒΕ
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#6
12-25-2006, 08:55 PM
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Saucon: I apologize for misidentifying which Carmouche it was. I have recieved some conflicting emails, but the ones from Louisiana identify yesterdays jock as the "fog" boy. When doing my research many articles also had it wrong. My fault.
Hoss: I agree the horse had no on paper chance. What the others are missing is HOW fast he ran. I have used up my Thorograph privileges but if you go to their redboard room I would be interested in his previous. I see 15's at best and yesterday he put up a 5??? AP Jim: I love other peoples opinions and value yours. Your analysis of the horse is spot on. I would add front bandages are added as a precaution by most trainers when their horses move from one track to another, experience turf, or dirt, for the first time, or drop in selling price, and in these cases generally, should not be viewed as a negative. Paying attention to detail is indeed what unlocks the holy grail of value. By the way your selection of the horse that finished second is somewhat enigmatic. I realize Amoss trained, but I would urge you avoid; playing any horse on short rest, dropping way back in distance, picking up huge weight, and at a short price. Hooves: I apologized for my post a few weeks back, that was intended as private and see little reason for your continued animosity. I do not attempt to talk down to people. FYI: buzzers are used primarily on rainy/sloppy days for three big reasons. Dan your post is terriffic. Some horses run from the joint and some do not. Same as blinkers on. Most cappers go foolishly go to the DRF statistic and it is, as false a stat as in the drf. I once again apologize for besmirching the elder Carmouche; it was unintentional. BBB
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#7
12-25-2006, 11:09 PM
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Regarding your comments about my selection? All I can say is that sometimes horses do win on short rest, cutting back and putting on weight. You can't just assume that when those conditions are present the horse can't win. Its all relative to the competition. And personally I don't know why you call 4.4 to 1 a short price. He was the fourth favorite in a field of eight. The horse that did barely beat him ran a new top figure that you yourself can hardly believe and my horse was clear of the third place horse by six lengths. I do not look back on that race and kick myself for betting the wrong horse. BTW I handicapped the entire card and posted it on another site. I had five winners and two seconds out of the ten races.
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#8
12-26-2006, 10:52 AM
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Direct Splash's best Thorograph figure before Sunday was a 9. That number doesn't match up with the best figures put forward by the rest of the field (6-7)-- but their form is only sporatically good at best as well. His comebacker after the break was a turf try (conditioning? failed experiment? either way it didn't work). His form improved markedly once the wraps came off at Delta last out. Note also that in his first five starts he never broke a 19, then all the sudden in two races in December of last year he raced once earning a 20, and came right back on short rest to earn a 10 -- that indicates to me that he's capable of taking huge jumps forward in form at just about any time even if they are without any consistency. Given that his career best figure easily puts him within a half-dozen lengths of the other horses' respective best figures, and given the inconsistent nature of all of the entrants figures -- he could very well have been seen as an exotics contender at a fat price. Once you add in the track condition, it appears that it was the sort of race where anything could happen -- and it did. The runner-up Saucey Tiger was coming off of both of his career top numbers (6) in his 36th and 37th career starts....given the nature of that improvement at that stage in his career....it would not be an asylum-worthy thought to wonder how many more times this horse could pair up that effort. The favorite Setemup Joe had figures that were generally better (6-9), and some modicum of consistency that was lacking in the rest of the field. However, his off-track performances indicate that with track conditions like Sunday's, he was more likely to toss a figure somewhere around 11 or 12, which we've already established would not be good enough to beat Direct Splash's best. Second choice Cutoff Time doesn't seem to have too much going for him on paper outside of the trainer change.....so there are some glaring holes in that one too. Finally, to your beef with him running a better time than Teuflesburg....that can easily be explained. Look at who that two-year old was up against. He most likely wouldn't have needed to run any better than an 8 or a 9 to win that stakes race, as only the second choice Probation Ready had run a number that would be competitive if Teuflesburg ran a 9 (which seems likely, as it's generally about his "par" race. He pops better numbers and slouches off at worse numbers, but it is not crazy to believe that he would run an 8 or 9 in the stakes race Sunday as that number is basically his "average"). Given all of this -- it seems likely that Direct Splash, with the lead, the slop, and the rail probably only improved his best figure by a point or two at best -- I wouldn't be shocked for his Thorograph figure from Sunday to come back around a 7. It would certainly fit. I would never have played him, but given all of the intangibles, it certainly was not the most shocking outcome we will ever see in this lifetime...certainly not the type that merits the sort of dickhead post that started this thread. It all sounds like a lot of losing tickets and sour grapes to me. Quote:
Last edited by paisjpq : 12-26-2006 at 01:36 PM.
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#9
12-26-2006, 11:08 AM
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nice job brian spencer..
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#10
12-26-2006, 11:19 AM
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Last edited by paisjpq : 12-26-2006 at 01:36 PM.
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#11
12-26-2006, 05:34 PM
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Jim: I was not using the front bandage comments for this case in particular. Most handicappers view there addition as negative, and that is often not always the case.
As far as 4-1 being good odds, they are not to me. I am strictly a pick 4 player. Other than my posted pick 4's, I played a horse everyday at Keeneland (Fall meet). I made maybe six or eight other win bets thruout the year (either $20, $50 or $100 increments) and, made a handful of bets when I lost early in a pick 4 and "liked" a price in a later leg using win and/or trifecta pools. I try and often succeed to get odds of at least 40-1 and hopefully 100-1 or more on those pick 4 bets, by "bending". My smallest hit was $118? when Silver Train won the Met Mile. My bet was posted on TG, cost $8 and most of the board posted the winning ticket. (the other 3 legs were turf heats with the rails way out and all were won by wire to wire favorites). My largest was $10,265 on a $32 ticket at Oaklawn (posted @ dmtc) on a 4x4x2x1 configuration. I was lucky running 1,2,3,4 in each of the first two legs with the longest priced horse winning both legs. The next smallest was $480 opening night at Delmar on a $12 wager winning both stakes by a nostril and next largest at Louisiana Downs, hitting twice on consecutive Sundays; once for $2000 ($36) and once for $379 three times, when they paid 3 of 4 on a $18 configuration. The "Nottawasaga" $969 pick 4 @ Keeneland (dmtc) ( I made almost as much on the win bet!) and another paid $706.40 on 3/12/06 at Oaklawn that I do not recall were under a grand. Oddly the six others, paid between $1026 and $1473, on bets from $16 to $36. When I bet $48 tickets, about ten times, I lost every time. I estimate maybe 65 pick 4 plays. I had a career year. I never (anymore) get sour grapes and seldom lose my objectivity. I also do not cherry pick playing almost every Sunday on the best Midwest track running. Getting back to Direct Splash you and/or Brianspenc said that DS ran a life time top by a couple of TG points. ( He did). Question: How many horses ever have run a new lifetime top by ten to fifteen lengths in their 17th start after an X x x pattern? Answer: None. Do I think Carmouche plugged the horse in? Absolutely. Does Carmouche have a track record indicating such behavior? Absolutely. I recieved some emails from some Nola people, all of them concurring and several suggested he buzzed the horse the last time the horse won. The TG people had some interesting posts. One by a very good capper related that in the late 80's in Louisiana in a 6f, 12 horse field, after they were all loaded the starter announced that the stewards called down and said they knew a rider had a joint. But if the rider dropped it there would be no investigation! The gate opened and the assistant starters found seven batteries. I do not know how to paste, cut or copy. Nice job in the slop Jim w/5of 10. My last bet of the year will be in the Malibu tonite and you did not mention the horse I like! Perhaps he is a scratch. Good cappin. BBB
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