Lock of the year

RHT2004 · #1 10-11-2017, 05:55 PM

Friday, Keeneland Race 5
#11 Trust

This horse cannot be defeated.

Alabama Stakes · #2 10-11-2017, 06:10 PM

The 12 hoss beat him by 5 last time, 6 also finished in front of him in the same race. The MSW race that the one hoss came out of went a full second faster just 5 days later.

knickslions2 · #3 10-11-2017, 06:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RHT2004

Friday, Keeneland Race 5
#11 Trust

This horse cannot be defeated.

Looks like a fun race. I'll pull up pps tomorrow and see what you have here. I like 5-1 so am interested

RHT2004 · #4 10-11-2017, 06:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alabama Stakes

The 12 hoss beat him by 5 last time, 6 also finished in front of him in the same race. The MSW race that the one hoss came out of went a full second faster just 5 days later.

Why would the time of a race 5 days later be relevant?

Alabama Stakes · #5 10-11-2017, 08:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RHT2004

Why would the time of a race 5 days later be relevant?

Same track variant both days. It’s not like it’s 5 weeks later. Chances are that it’s probably close to the same track.
How is he making up the 5 lengths the 12 hoss whipped him ? Just because they paid $240K for him , does not mean he is all that and a bag of chips.

RHT2004 · #6 10-11-2017, 08:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alabama Stakes

Same track variant both days. It’s not like it’s 5 weeks later. Chances are that it’s probably close to the same track.
How is he making up the 5 lengths the 12 hoss whipped him ? Just because they paid $240K for him , does not mean he is all that and a bag of chips.

I could care less about his cost. The reason I love him is pretty obvious. Simple trainer stats back it up. He is the best in the game 2nd out. The horse showed me enough speed and enough overall in debut. He rolls Friday.

declansharbor · #7 10-11-2017, 10:17 PM

The lock of the year is Chad Brown having an INSANE amount of barns filled to the brim with talent. WOWZAS!

Lock that man up for monopolizing turf races! Sheesh!

fantini33 · #8 10-12-2017, 09:58 AM

Tough race to have a "Lock" in......but I will be playing the inside runner. Sometimes it isn't just solely 2nd out stats but more the dichotomy between the 1st out 2nd out numbers that tell the story. Tomilinson is, to be kind, poor with firsters.....but excellent next out. I also wouldn't be afraid to use the 2. Took money 1st out and this trainer, while fine with firsters, always get them to improve. Lanerie leaving isn't exactly a ringing endorsement though.

I will be playing Dagneys Warrior in this race, going outside to inside, with the aforementioned trainer numbers.

Best of luck!

taxicab · #9 10-12-2017, 09:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RHT2004

Friday, Keeneland Race 5
#11 Trust

This horse cannot be defeated.

Strong opinion......best of luck.
She has early speed,fits the main track profile right now.
Good thread......I'll try a lock of the day on Saturday.

Alabama Stakes · #10 10-12-2017, 10:12 PM

The other half of the race that day, which was split, went in 1:10 . The race that Trust came out of went in 1:11 4/5. Is this an angle for you ? Lock of the year in the slow split of the race .
To me all 3 coming out of that race are tossola material. The 9 hoss was awesome in her debut. 9 with 7-8-14

10 pnt move up · #11 10-12-2017, 11:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RHT2004

Friday, Keeneland Race 5
#11 Trust

This horse cannot be defeated.

This horse can definitely win this race but I highly doubt he is 5/1 unless there is some steam on something not obvious as its well backed connections, second out, after a very strong mdn. 7/2 seems more likely, maybe even lower.

RHT2004 · #12 10-13-2017, 07:20 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

This horse can definitely win this race but I highly doubt he is 5/1 unless there is some steam on something not obvious as its well backed connections, second out, after a very strong mdn. 7/2 seems more likely, maybe even lower.

I gussed 3-1.

knickslions2 · #13 10-13-2017, 09:10 AM

This race has that bomb look to it. Not sure Trust is fast enough to beat the 12 or the 6 and not sold that was even a good race. I'm looking at the 1 horse and a few other double digits here

Kitan · #14 10-13-2017, 09:26 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RHT2004

Friday, Keeneland Race 5
#11 Trust

This horse cannot be defeated.

If I was a bookie I'd give you 20-1 odds.

blackthroatedwind · #15 10-13-2017, 09:32 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kitan

If I was a bookie I'd give you 20-1 odds.

If you were a bookie, and you gave out 20:1 on random 7:2 shots, you would be broke.

The guy comes here and gives an opinion. He's having some fun. Who do you like in the race? I'll bet $50, loser donates it to TRF, that his horse beats whatever horse you pick.

10 pnt move up · #16 10-13-2017, 10:04 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RHT2004

I gussed 3-1.

Seems about right, good luck.

casp0555 · #17 10-13-2017, 10:49 AM

August Snow is interesting except for the post position and surrounding speed. If I was to take a shot, I would use the Union Rags filly, nice gate work last time and maybe corey will shake some of the ice off...but I doubt you will see 12/1, maybe 5/1...maybe

Kitan · #18 10-13-2017, 10:53 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

If you were a bookie, and you gave out 20:1 on random 7:2 shots, you would be broke.

The guy comes here and gives an opinion. He's having some fun. Who do you like in the race? I'll bet $50, loser donates it to TRF, that his horse beats whatever horse you pick.

He said the horse was a lock. I'm having fun by saying I don't like the horse at all and would offer those odds hypothetically. I'm not interested in betting the race, I just don't think his horse is the lock of the year by any means. Anyways it shouldn't be important to you who I like in the race, I think you have your own worries with your own picks...

By the way, 1) if I was a bookie I could afford to make those offers from time to time and 2) have you ever heard of exchange or lay wagering?

RHT2004 · #19 10-13-2017, 11:53 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kitan

If I was a bookie I'd give you 20-1 odds.

20-1 Is silly. Even if he runs last, giving me 7x his likely post time odds is ignorant.

blackthroatedwind · #20 10-13-2017, 12:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kitan

He said the horse was a lock. I'm having fun by saying I don't like the horse at all and would offer those odds hypothetically. I'm not interested in betting the race, I just don't think his horse is the lock of the year by any means. Anyways it shouldn't be important to you who I like in the race, I think you have your own worries with your own picks...

By the way, 1) if I was a bookie I could afford to make those offers from time to time and 2) have you ever heard of exchange or lay wagering?

So you have no opinion, but knocked his?

You didn't need the second paragraph. You were just piling on yourself. What exchange wagering has to do with you obnoxiously criticizing someone else's pick, especially when you don't even have one of your own, will remain a great mystery.