Week/Weekend Stakes Beyers: West Coast 108

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Anyone that says that is blinded by irrational love for Songbird. Stellar Wind was the leader of the division before the race with three Grade 1s this year and in an even stronger position coming out...and I say that as a fan of Forever Unbridled. Then again, I'm a Stellar Wind fan too.

The lead-in story for the BC Distaff this year may be the impending showdown between Stellar Wind and Forever Unbridled, with Songbird taking a back seat. That's got to be a bit surprising for some.

A telling stat: Stellar Wind is 0 for 3 at 9f. Forever Unbridled is 6-3-0-2.

Stellar Wind has been stretched to the limit by Vale Dori twice this year at a flat mile. Forever Unbridled has looked loaded throughout in both her starts this year and has not felt the whip in either start (although they say she doesn't like the whip).

It will be interesting to see if either mare will come out for a race before the BC Distaff. Both horses seem to do best with lots of space between races. The last time either horse started ~1 month (that's a quick turnaround nowadays apparently) apart they both lost (albeit the BC Distaff). In fact, that is either mare's only loss in the past 14 months in Stellar Wind's case and the past 11 months in the case of Forever Unbridled.

If Stellar Wind does come out, presumably for the Zenyatta, she'll probably have to face Songbird. That might not mean much for those who believe Stellar Wind is simply better than Songbird, but in the grand scheme of things it might have repercussions for her BC run.

[10 pnt move up]

Reading Rick Porters comments I am not sure if she races again, he basically said thats not the filly I know, there has to be something wrong. Whether thats true or not he owns the horse so its his call.

I still think Abel Tasman is in play here in that race.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

Reading Rick Porters comments I am not sure if she races again, he basically said thats not the filly I know, there has to be something wrong. Whether thats true or not he owns the horse so its his call.

The only thing wrong with Songbird is that she did not naturally improve from 3 to 4 which some people anticipated. She clearly has physical issues, else there wouldn't have been a delay to her season. In terms of form this year, her race yesterday was a huge step up.
At the same time, she hasn't taken a huge step backwards either, the way other top 3yo fillies like Open Mind, Silverbulletday, Excellent Meeting, Rachel Alexandra, Meadow Star and Light Light did.

Stellar Wind and Forever Unbridled might be better than her in general, but Songbird clearly has enough to win the BC Distaff should things swing in her favor.

She's not toast. Last time out, she was threatened by a no-name (actually: Martini Glass) who couldn't win a minor stakes at Thistledowns next out. Yesterday she just got reeled in by a multiple Grade 1 winner in career form. And her visually less-than-stellar Ogden Phipps should be reassessed, too, given the subsequent productivity of that race as you have well highlighted. The only horse that hasn't won a stakes out of there (yet) lost a Grade 1 sprint by a head with fractions slower than the 9f Personal Ensign.

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

The only thing wrong with Songbird is that she did not naturally improve from 3 to 4 which some people anticipated. She clearly has physical issues, else there wouldn't have been a delay to her season. In terms of form this year, her race yesterday was a huge step up.
At the same time, she hasn't taken a huge step backwards either, the way other top 3yo fillies like Open Mind, Silverbulletday, Excellent Meeting, Rachel Alexandra, Meadow Star and Light Light did.

Stellar Wind and Forever Unbridled might be better than her in general, but Songbird clearly has enough to win the BC Distaff should things swing in her favor.

She's not toast. Last time out, she was threatened by a no-name (actually: Martini Glass) who couldn't win a minor stakes at Thistledowns next out. Yesterday she just got reeled in by a multiple Grade 1 winner in career form. And her visually less-than-stellar Ogden Phipps should be reassessed, too, given the subsequent productivity of that race as you have well highlighted. The only horse that hasn't won a stakes out of there (yet) lost a Grade 1 sprint by a head with fractions slower than the 9f Personal Ensign.

I just dont think thats the filly that lost to Beholder by a nose.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

I just dont think thats the filly that lost to Beholder by a nose.

Any difference in either direction can't be more than a length or so at best. Forever Unbridled was right there in BC Distaff last year.

The result of the Personal Ensign was little different than seeing Gorgeous get the better of Bayakoa, Stellar Wind defeating Beholder, or Summer Colony beating Azeri.

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

Any difference in either direction can't be more than a length or so at best. Forever Unbridled was right there in BC Distaff last year.

The result of the Personal Ensign was little different than seeing Gorgeous get the better of Bayakoa, Stellar Wind defeating Beholder, or Summer Colony beating Azeri.

I feel like watching Songbird at 4 was like watching Paseana at 6.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

I feel like watching Songbird at 4 was like watching Paseana at 6.

I liken the visual "decline" in performance to watching a regional champ move into the main circuit. Still winning (most of the time) but having to work harder to do it.

Whatever you can say about Songbird's brilliance at 2 and 3, one has to admit that a large part of the theatrics was the fact that she was pummeling turf horses (Mokat) and maidens (She's A Warrior) at Santa Anita (4 times mind you) to start the season, then faced a pair of late-running sprinters (Cathryn Sophia and Carina Mia) at 9f and 10f. She had those over a barrel and that led to the inflation of her reputation. The BC Distaff was the true measuring stick of her overall ability as a 3yo. Given the relative pace advantage and the fact that she lost, she failed the world-beater acid test.

While she has not improved this year, her races this year to me easily fit with her performance in the BC Distaff. The Ogden Phipps, off a layoff and a ship, was a loaded race based on subsequent performances. The Delaware Handicap, her weakest performance, was at a distance that she in all likelihood doesn't care for. Similar speed-laden females like Azeri, Sky Beauty, Serena's Song, Saratoga Dew, Ashado and Rachel Alexandra were all vulnerable at 10f. Many of those actually got beat at the distance by lesser rivals. Yesterday she got tagged by a horse that unlike Carina Mia and Cathryn Sophia, could sustain a run and had threatened to run her down in the past. Without as deep a field, but still with a formidable rival, the race played out much like the BC Distaff last year. It was a slight form reversal (by Forever Unbridled) at best.