In 2007 I will be a better capper by:

[SentToStud]

I've been working on a project for my track for several months. I need to finish it by the opening of Calder in April '07.

I'm looking hard at owner intent/profiling. Stats are widely available regarding trainer performance and "intent," but I've long postulated that successful (and unsuccessful) class moves can be correlated to owner at lower class levels, specificaly limited winner claiming races.

I have a good level of success betting races for claiming non-winners or limited winners from $10k to $25k. I've gotten through my work for 2005 and 2006 in terms of owner impact on performance in these class categories, especially with respect to class drops/raises and race timing (ie, 2nd race at current class after a lower class win 2 back).

The results so far are interesting and very useful. I'm busy working on 2004 now and gathering what I need for 2003.

Unfortunately, I'm missing 3 months of 2003 Calder PPs and charts. That's making it a bit tougher. If anyone has June-Aug 2003 Calder PPs or charts I'd be willing to pay for the package.

good luck in 2007. time flies.

[MaTH716]

I totally understand that the tote board is very important and can actually be used as a tool. The point that I was trying to make was, that if I look at a race and the horse I like is 3-2 don't go back into the form and try talk myself into a 8-1 shot that all of a sudden looks better. (because he is not 3-2) If I look at a race and the horse I like is 25-1, I don't go back into the form to try to beat him. So why should I do it if the horse is 3-2? I should try to be more creative with my betting and get the most out of the 3-2 shot as possible. Maybe I could single him in a pick 3 or 4. I usually do not bet them but maybe I should start. Most of you people seem like very educated horse players and most of you probably are at the track or OTB every weekend. These days if I get to the track once a month it is alot. So not betting the race is really not an option for me, just because I don't get the opportunity that much. Also I go with a very limited bankroll. So I mainly bet exoctics, mostly exacta's. That's were I feel I could make the most money. The easiest way for me to put it is, I should not try to hit a triple or a homerun every race by tossing or using the 3-2 shot underneath instead of using it as my key horse. If I like that much make a win bet or use him soley on top and be happy with a base hit. Take my small profit and look for another spot. I am tired of ripping up would coulda shoulda tickets and start cashing the ones I should have bet in the first place!

Merry X-mas & Happy New Year