In 2007 I will be a better capper by:

[kenny p]

Originally Posted by TheSpyder

OK, so everyone beared theri souls with how they did this last year. Now let's look at the year ahead and think about what we can do to do better. I'm not talking about becoming a punter, but what are a few things that we can do to make 2007 a better year than last year.

For me, here's what I need to do:

1. Stop betting every damn race just to have some action. I do better when I skip some races not even if I have a key race, I just do better taking my time. Maybe I have a 40 minute brain living in a 30 MTP world, but it just seems to take pressure off.

2. I'm much better on doubles and pick 3's that exactas and tri's but sometimes I haven't capped enough ahead, so CAP ahead!

3. Money management: Stop chasing loosing money with more.

4. Limit wagering on Derby and BC Days. I never do well yet I come up to them with some crazy idea I'll make a killing and bet that way.

Well that's mine. I'm gonna see if I can follows these four things and I know I'll do better. Oh yea. thanks to some of you...get an account that gives rebates, now I get none which would have put $700 in my pocket this last year. HAPPY NEW YEAR!

Howz About You??

1. continue to work on money management.
2Learn about thorograph sheets.
3In2006 I went to the track about 8 times. This year i will get out more. I always do better when I am there.

[Gander]

I'm pretty sure you are talking about how much you would bet on one horse once you've decide you like THAT horse

Yes I think thats exactly what he is saying. A great example of this is a horse I think both of us liked last week- Bishops Court Hill. I looked at the field the night before and glanced at the morning line odds. He was 6/1 and I thought that would be an excellent overlay if indeed he happened to go off at 6/1, or 5/1 or 7/1 range.

I wasnt playing that day but I was interested in watching this race. Bishop Court Hill opened as the favorite at 2/1 which surprised me. He hung aroung that price for a fairly long time in the betting, and eventually drifted up and went off at 7/2 and won.

Now 7/2 on a horse you think has a great chance to win isnt bad but I wouldnt consider that an overlay or even good value considering his poor form since his win in the Carter, which was on a sloppy track.

Had I bet the race I wouldnt have bet as much to win on him at 7/2 as I would 6/1. That probably would have been a $100 win bet for me but if he was 6 or 7/1 I would have probably doubled that bet.

[cal828]

My first horseracing resolution for the New Year is to never play tri-boxes again.
My 2nd is to play a few pick 3s and 4s. Probably haven't played a half dozen of these in my life, but everyone says they are the best of the exotics.
My 3rd is to keep my own counsel. Have this peculiar habit occasionally of looking at some else's picks and trying to beat them, even if I know they are good picks.

[Danzig]

i always look at the tote board before betting. i tend to go over the form the evening before, and i absolutely refuse to bet a horse i chose as one to possibly bet if his odds are low. i might play him in an exotic. but then, i don't generally place just a win bet anyway. if you can't beat the fave, try to find a play underneath to include him with. but i also look over the entire card and try to identify those few absolute sure winners, as i can never forget that the fave only wins about a third of the time. that leaves a lot of vulnerable faves to bet against.
couple years ago at oaklawn, there was a huge bridgejumpers bet on a horse that had run in the tc earlier that year. everyone hammered him only to watch him finish fourth.
i also hit a nice pick three that day, with private emblem being one of my 'sure faves'. he won for fun that day.
i also plan to hit at least one super, as every one i've played i've had three of my four horses in the top four spots, and invariably the last of the four comes fifth.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by cal828

My first horseracing resolution for the New Year is to never play tri-boxes again.
My 2nd is to play a few pick 3s and 4s. Probably haven't played a half dozen of these in my life, but everyone says they are the best of the exotics.
My 3rd is to keep my own counsel. Have this peculiar habit occasionally of looking at some else's picks and trying to beat them, even if I know they are good picks.

i have played a couple tris only to see my picks finish one, two, and fourth.

[dellinger63]

Going the other way and going to play less pic 3's,4's and more win or double bets. I'm going to stay out of races that are part of 3's and 4's that I have no interest in EXCEPT BC day when I usually have an opinion anyway. AND no more races for 20K claiming or less. NONE

well at least that's the plan....

[cal828]

Originally Posted by dellinger63

Going the other way and going to play less pic 3's,4's and more win or double bets. I'm going to stay out of races that are part of 3's and 4's that I have no interest in EXCEPT BC day when I usually have an opinion anyway. AND no more races for 20K claiming or less. NONE

well at least that's the plan....

I love that last part. Me too. Never met a new year's resolution I couldn't break.

[SentToStud]

I've been working on a project for my track for several months. I need to finish it by the opening of Calder in April '07.

I'm looking hard at owner intent/profiling. Stats are widely available regarding trainer performance and "intent," but I've long postulated that successful (and unsuccessful) class moves can be correlated to owner at lower class levels, specificaly limited winner claiming races.

I have a good level of success betting races for claiming non-winners or limited winners from $10k to $25k. I've gotten through my work for 2005 and 2006 in terms of owner impact on performance in these class categories, especially with respect to class drops/raises and race timing (ie, 2nd race at current class after a lower class win 2 back).

The results so far are interesting and very useful. I'm busy working on 2004 now and gathering what I need for 2003.

Unfortunately, I'm missing 3 months of 2003 Calder PPs and charts. That's making it a bit tougher. If anyone has June-Aug 2003 Calder PPs or charts I'd be willing to pay for the package.

good luck in 2007. time flies.

[MaTH716]

I totally understand that the tote board is very important and can actually be used as a tool. The point that I was trying to make was, that if I look at a race and the horse I like is 3-2 don't go back into the form and try talk myself into a 8-1 shot that all of a sudden looks better. (because he is not 3-2) If I look at a race and the horse I like is 25-1, I don't go back into the form to try to beat him. So why should I do it if the horse is 3-2? I should try to be more creative with my betting and get the most out of the 3-2 shot as possible. Maybe I could single him in a pick 3 or 4. I usually do not bet them but maybe I should start. Most of you people seem like very educated horse players and most of you probably are at the track or OTB every weekend. These days if I get to the track once a month it is alot. So not betting the race is really not an option for me, just because I don't get the opportunity that much. Also I go with a very limited bankroll. So I mainly bet exoctics, mostly exacta's. That's were I feel I could make the most money. The easiest way for me to put it is, I should not try to hit a triple or a homerun every race by tossing or using the 3-2 shot underneath instead of using it as my key horse. If I like that much make a win bet or use him soley on top and be happy with a base hit. Take my small profit and look for another spot. I am tired of ripping up would coulda shoulda tickets and start cashing the ones I should have bet in the first place!

Merry X-mas & Happy New Year