7/29 (SAR): Vanderbilt (G1), Bwlg Grn, Jim Dandy, Amsterdam (G2's)

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

But apparently you get killed for taking a shot with a talented horse

Classic short-term over long-term thinking. How many horses went from breaking their maiden late in their 3yo year in their debut to winning a Grade 1 at 9f or more in their second start?

Did Pavel show signs of talent in the Jim Dandy? Sure. Was it all for naught? Of course. He ran like a horse that had never been two turns before and found wanting in the stretch, ultimately finishing off the board.

At best, if the plan was to see if he had any talent (did anyone who saw his maiden win need this?) it was a completely wasted effort. At worst, if he comes out of the race less than 100% (was his debut delayed for a physical issue?) the race may have ruined his career.

This is nothing new though for Reddam, who's proficiency at ruining careers has move into the realm of an art form.

--while the same people probably complain about short fields.

Classic short-term over long-term thinking. If Pavel's career is shortened in any way by blowing his wad in this race, then guess what, instead of the prospect a 4-horse Jim Dandy, there will be perhaps 10 or more races over the longterm that won't have Pavel in it.