In 2007 I will be a better capper by:

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

This is exactly the opposite of what people should be doing. I'm not being a smartass. This is the absolute wrong way of thinking.

Look at it this way.....if you just know heads is going to come up on the next coin flip would you still lay 3-1 on it happening?

so you're saying that people SHOULD be fishing for 8-1 shots when they REALLY think the 3-2 shot is going to win and then watching their 3-2 romp home without a single dollar on him?

i'm not sure if i'm misunderstanding YOU, or if you're misunderstaning MATH716 -- but I think the point was to like who you like and NOT trick yourself into fishing for the price -- knowing that that is stupid if you didn't originally think the horse was going to win.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

so you're saying that people SHOULD be fishing for 8-1 shots when they REALLY think the 3-2 shot is going to win and then watching their 3-2 romp home without a single dollar on him?

i'm not sure if i'm misunderstanding YOU, or if you're misunderstaning MATH716 -- but I think the point was to like who you like and NOT trick yourself into fishing for the price -- knowing that that is stupid.

I may be over extending what he is trying to say, or maybe he is saying it badly, but in theory there are horses one actually should bet as their second or even third choice at 8-1 over horses that may be their top choice at 3-2. Certainly one should ALWAYS pay attention to the tote board, and be looking at exacta probables, and at least attempting to find what they perceive as their best value. Look, most people's understanding of what the actual chances of each horse winning is poor, and the tote board is overall the likeliest best indicator of this, but any horse player should have a reasonable idea of what odds he or she is willing to take on any horse and thus play accordingly. If one does not like the odds on their selection there is an alternative other than taking a flyer on another horse....you can always sit that race out.

The odds board is a horseplayer's friend....not his or her enemy.

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I may be over extending what he is trying to say, or maybe he is saying it badly, but in theory there are horses one actually should bet as their second or even third choice at 8-1 over horses that may be their top choice at 3-2. Certainly one should ALWAYS pay attention to the tote board, and be looking at exacta probables, and at least attempting to find what they perceive as their best value. Look, most people's understanding of what the actual chances of each horse winning is poor, and the tote board is overall the likeliest best indicator of this, but any horse player should have a reasonable idea of what odds he or she is willing to take on any horse and thus play accordingly. If one does not like the odds on their selection there is an alternative other than taking a flyer on another horse....you can always sit that race out.

The odds board is a horseplayer's friend....not his or her enemy.

Yea, I think that's what the original post meant, and that's how I took it when I added it to the tail end of my post. That I need to stay disciplined at ALL times and not take a flyer on a horse that is not our first choice just because we don't like 3-2 on the horse we DO like.

That if we like that 3-2 horse, and aren't satisfied with the price for the win -- to start looking for creative ways to key that horse on top of exotics that will maximize the investment instead of just tossing that horse and taking another.

I think we're all on the same page, just saying it in different ways.

[pmayjr]

2 Things-
1) Concede that I suck at playing the big-time tracks. I need to go 'cap at night when I have friendly Mountaineer and their 5k claiming races. I'll watch the big-time horses and the stakes races for fanfare only.

2) Just in general- Horse bet more than go to the card room and play hold'em. I do a lot of both, but Hold'em I play a lot of due to the convenience factor involved. I consider myself to be a pretty good poker player, but too much luck is involved. The horses is my comfort zone. I gotta stick to what I'm truly good at.

Merry Xmas and Happy New Year guys. Hope they're both groovy.
-Pete

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

the tote is the best and worst thing if you have an opinion regardless of the odds... you should make your play .for a horse thats getting bet first out..thats a pos sighn....and you should bet with that in mind but..i dont scare from beating the odds if i like a horse and hes 17-1..ill play him..

[blackthroatedwind]

Aside from firsters, the bigger the price the more you should bet.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Aside from firsters, the bigger the price the more you should bet.

You have to be careful with intepreting that statement. That sounds like you would always bet more on 20-1 horses than on 3-1 horses. I'd only do that if I thought my edge was something like 6 -7 times larger on the 20-1 horses than on the 3-1 horses, which is going to occur very rarely.

I'm pretty sure you are talking about how much you would bet on one horse once you've decide you like THAT horse. I'd agree with that; it makes sense to bet more on a particular choice, the higher the odds. But as a rule, as I'm sure you know, bets on 20-1 horses should be a lot less than bets on 3-1 horses.

--Dunbar

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

Yea, I think that's what the original post meant, and that's how I took it when I added it to the tail end of my post. That I need to stay disciplined at ALL times and not take a flyer on a horse that is not our first choice just because we don't like 3-2 on the horse we DO like.

That if we like that 3-2 horse, and aren't satisfied with the price for the win -- to start looking for creative ways to key that horse on top of exotics that will maximize the investment instead of just tossing that horse and taking another.

I think we're all on the same page, just saying it in different ways.

The first poster said " Don't look at the tote board before I bet " so that poster is suggesting to bet whomever one likes regardless of price. That's simply another recipe for losing.

One should be acutely aware of all odds and absolutely be ready to " take a flyer on a horse that is not our first choice " simply because of the oddsboard. A good horseplayer will cash more than his share of tickets with second, third or fourth choices played because of price.

Look at it this way, staying alive in multi-race bets relies on spreading, and the bigger scores will usually come when some big priced horse wins one of the legs and may well have been thrown in as a third or fourth choice. Perhaps in an individual race that horse's big odds would have been enticing enough for a win bet, especially if the odds on the horseplayer's other contendors were all theoretically too low.

There are many ways to win and not using an available asset only limits these chances.

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

The first poster said " Don't look at the tote board before I bet " so that poster is suggesting to bet whomever one likes regardless of price. That's simply another recipe for losing.

I guess I don't totally agree. We're interpreting the poster's "don't look at the tote board" differently. I'm not interpreting it as saying never look at the tote board and go with who you like regardless of the odds. I think it's the difference between:

1.) Being pretty sure the 3-2 shot should win and realizing you don't think the odds are fair to win and then structuring an exotic bet around that 3-2 key horse.

and

2.) Being pretty sure the 3-2 shot should win and realizing you don't think the odds are fair to win and then tossing the 3-2 shot out in favor of a horse that would pay $20 that you think has a small chance to win, just because you'd rather go down in flames with the 9-1 horse you don't like as much instead of the chalk just for the sake of saying you did.

I find the first to be rational, and the second to be plain stupid.

[bogeydaman]

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

I guess I don't totally agree. We're interpreting the poster's "don't look at the tote board" differently. I'm not interpreting it as saying never look at the tote board and go with who you like regardless of the odds. I think it's the difference between:

1.) Being pretty sure the 3-2 shot should win and realizing you don't think the odds are fair to win and then structuring an exotic bet around that 3-2 key horse.

and

2.) Being pretty sure the 3-2 shot should win and realizing you don't think the odds are fair to win and then tossing the 3-2 shot out in favor of a horse that would pay $20 that you think has a small chance to win, just because you'd rather go down in flames with the 9-1 horse you don't like as much instead of the chalk just for the sake of saying you did.

I find the first to be rational, and the second to be plain stupid.

The point trying to be made (and you are missing) is what do you think the chances of the 3-2 and 9-1 shot are of winning. If you think the 3-2 shot's probably odds of winning is 35% and the 9-1 shot has an 11% chance of winning (3 x less likely) you are still better off playing the 9-1 shot. You should evaluate each horse in the race's likelyhood of winnning and compare vs the actual odds being offered on the horse. In the case of the 9-1 shot with an 11% chance of winning you should bet that horse every time and never bet the 3-2 horse (now if the 3-2 shot you predict would win the race 60% of the time then it is a good bet).

[Gander]

The odds board is a horseplayer's friend....not his or her enemy.

I understand what BTW is trying to say perfectly. If you like a horse the best who is 3/2 but see a horse who you not necessarily like better than your top choice but can see winning at around the 8/1 range, always bet more on the 8/1 shot. It might be painful if the 3/2 horse jogs home first and you think I could have cashed a ticket instead of throwing one on the ground, but in the long run the amount of money cashed on the occasional 8/1 shot winning will outweigh the amount on the 3/2 shot. You have to know what your doing and have logical reasoning behind supporting the 8/1 shot. Not just because he/she is 8/1 and you need that $18 payout to "get out".

I also understand what MATH716 is saying. I have changed my mind unwisely due to looking at the tote so many times. But I wasnt thinking rationally. I was thinking of what I need to get out or what a score I could make if I go with the greater priced horse. I guess somewhere inside me part of me convinced myself to bet a horse just because of the possible return.

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by bogeydaman

The point trying to be made (and you are missing) is what do you think the chances of the 3-2 and 9-1 shot are of winning. If you think the 3-2 shot's probably odds of winning is 35% and the 9-1 shot has an 11% chance of winning (3 x less likely) you are still better off playing the 9-1 shot. You should evaluate each horse in the race's likelyhood of winnning and compare vs the actual odds being offered on the horse. In the case of the 9-1 shot with an 11% chance of winning you should bet that horse every time and never bet the 3-2 horse (now if the 3-2 shot you predict would win the race 60% of the time then it is a good bet).

i'm not "missing" the point, i'm just talking about a 3-2 shot that i envision having more than a 35% chance of winning. when i'm talking about it, i'm thinking big favorites who SHOULD win, meaning that you decide there is more than a "regular" favorites chance of winning (35%-ish).

I am acutely aware of the odds-board vs. perceived likelihood of winning like you've described above. we're just talking about seeing a 3-2 favorite in a different way. if i like a 3-2 favorite generally i'm talking about a horse that i don't see likely losing, if i don't like him on paper it's still going to be obvious without looking at the board that he's a huge favorite -- at which point i know in advance that he's a huge underlay, so it becomes a moot point because i don't need to look at the odds-board and the this entire situation is avoided in the first place. get what i'm saying?

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I may be over extending what he is trying to say, or maybe he is saying it badly, but in theory there are horses one actually should bet as their second or even third choice at 8-1 over horses that may be their top choice at 3-2. Certainly one should ALWAYS pay attention to the tote board, and be looking at exacta probables, and at least attempting to find what they perceive as their best value. Look, most people's understanding of what the actual chances of each horse winning is poor, and the tote board is overall the likeliest best indicator of this, but any horse player should have a reasonable idea of what odds he or she is willing to take on any horse and thus play accordingly. If one does not like the odds on their selection there is an alternative other than taking a flyer on another horse....you can always sit that race out.

The odds board is a horseplayer's friend....not his or her enemy.

This is about the only thing I do right at the track.

I find myself being pretty good at finding the price horse that gets the win or place by first capping out my top 3 or 4 horses and then looking to see how everyone else is betting them. It's actually structuring my bets for exactas and tris that I get burned. Too many times I look down on my notes to find that I had the horses, but didn't have them bet correctly (which is also in part from not wanting to invest a lot of money into my bet). This pretty much had me sticking to the W-P or WPS bet of the horse I liked best with the best odds...which is probably a pretty wimpy and unimaginitive way to do it.

I'm very compeitive and I think this carries onto my betting (which may be pretty stupid actually), it means more to me to beat the low odd favorite and occassionally miss one (or in those really sucky days, many) than to load up on the favorite.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I may be over extending what he is trying to say, or maybe he is saying it badly, but in theory there are horses one actually should bet as their second or even third choice at 8-1 over horses that may be their top choice at 3-2. Certainly one should ALWAYS pay attention to the tote board, and be looking at exacta probables, and at least attempting to find what they perceive as their best value. Look, most people's understanding of what the actual chances of each horse winning is poor, and the tote board is overall the likeliest best indicator of this, but any horse player should have a reasonable idea of what odds he or she is willing to take on any horse and thus play accordingly. If one does not like the odds on their selection there is an alternative other than taking a flyer on another horse....you can always sit that race out.

The odds board is a horseplayer's friend....not his or her enemy.

Well said.

--Dunbar