NYRA Late Pick 5

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by jms62

37 K handle yesterday vs. 319 K in Early P5. Will anyone admit to this bet with its restrictions being a really bad idea.

Don't you have to give them a chance to promote the exclusivity of the wager? Can't most people sign up for NYRA Bets? The issue is California and NJ cant those are big markets

[jms62]

Originally Posted by freddymo

Don't you have to give them a chance to promote the exclusivity of the wager? Can't most people sign up for NYRA Bets? The issue is California and NJ cant those are big markets

Not sure what "promote the exclusivity of the wager" means. Was that intended to be tongue in cheek? Today it should be as good as it ever is going to be. Let's check back tomorrow.

1. Will it break 100K
2. Will it be more than the Early P5

My vote is 1) Yes 2) No

If this was open to all I would say this could do 750K today.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by jms62

Not sure what "promote the exclusivity of the wager" means. Was that intended to be tongue in cheek? Today it should be as good as it ever is going to be. Let's check back tomorrow.

1. Will it break 100K
2. Will it be more than the Early P5

My vote is 1) Yes 2) No

If this was open to all I would say this could do 750K today.

Seems to me they are using the late Pik 5 to drum up NYRA bets customers to increase overall ADW play(you cant fool me) . I get the strategy. Will it work, sure, to what degree will see. You have to understand that 750k in handle abroad might equate to 150,000 in handle IN HOUSE. So being wowed by big handle might be Handle envy vs. actual profit.. I dont know the math but it doesnt take a brain surgeon to get that in house wagering is MUCH more profitable then hawking the signal for the sake of big handle figs.

in the end its about profit or at the very least not losing. GP is posting large handles daily and growing them BUT are they making money or just posting big handle figs? I dont know nor do many they are a private company

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by jms62

Not sure what "promote the exclusivity of the wager" means. Was that intended to be tongue in cheek? Today it should be as good as it ever is going to be. Let's check back tomorrow.

1. Will it break 100K
2. Will it be more than the Early P5

My vote is 1) Yes 2) No

If this was open to all I would say this could do 750K today.

So on Day 3, you think it "should be as good as it ever is going to be?" Really? Would you bet on that being true?

Unlike a couple other people in this conversation, you're a bright guy, and you bet, and likely look to beat favorites if the opportunity presents itself. Why aren't you applying the same logic here? Do you think the people behind this decision didn't understand that the bet would handle a fraction of what it could handle? Have you considered all the reasons this might be being done?

It's a complex discussion. Most are. Simply whittling it down to "it would be handling much more the other way" can't be the best way to look at it. Just as looking at any race and saying "the favorite's got this one" is probably a bad idea.

[Alabama Stakes]

Sign up for NYRA bets, or else !

[jms62]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

So on Day 3, you think it "should be as good as it ever is going to be?" Really? Would you bet on that being true?

Unlike a couple other people in this conversation, you're a bright guy, and you bet, and likely look to beat favorites if the opportunity presents itself. Why aren't you applying the same logic here? Do you think the people behind this decision didn't understand that the bet would handle a fraction of what it could handle? Have you considered all the reasons this might be being done?

It's a complex discussion. Most are. Simply whittling it down to "it would be handling much more the other way" can't be the best way to look at it. Just as looking at any race and saying "the favorite's got this one" is probably a bad idea.

I said that because of all the Graded Stakes races and arguably today is the#2 or at least #3 best day all year on NY circut. I am willing to bet $500 that this bet doesn't exist Jan 1 2018 with the current limitation of NY Bets customers only with no guaranteed minimums. How many horse players that you can recruit are looking at the reduced potential handle vs the difficulty of hitting this and not bothering? Speaking for myself if I had the opportunity I would not play it as it exists. I know I hit this bet about 5% of the time the way I play it and dont partcipate in pools less than 200K nor short fields which has kept me out of Santa Anita this year. But this is my thought process and it is not like I haven't been wrong in the past and certainly will be wrong in the future.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by jms62

I said that because of all the Graded Stakes races and arguably today is the#2 or at least #3 best day all year on NY circut. I am willing to bet $500 that this bet doesn't exist Jan 1 2018 with the current limitation of NY Bets customers only with no guaranteed minimums. How many horse players that you can recruit are looking at the reduced potential handle vs the difficulty of hitting this and not bothering? Speaking for myself if I had the opportunity I would not play it as it exists. I know I hit this bet about 5% of the time the way I play it and dont partcipate in pools less than 200K nor short fields which has kept me out of Santa Anita this year. But this is my thought process and it is not like I haven't been wrong in the past and certainly will be wrong in the future.

The bet is actually available anywhere in NY State, and not only to NYRA Bets customers, for what it's worth. If you want to play it out of NY State, you need to bet through NYRA Bets.

Most Saturday's at Saratoga, maybe every one when it doesn't rain, has handled better than Stars&Stripes Day in the past, in case you're interested. Regardless, it's a big discussion, and surely there are pluses and minuses on both sides.

[herkhorse]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

The bet is actually available anywhere in NY State, and not only to NYRA Bets customers, for what it's worth. If you want to play it out of NY State, you need to bet through NYRA Bets.

Thanks for posting this.

[ScottJ]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Do you think the people behind this decision didn't understand that the bet would handle a fraction of what it could handle? Have you considered all the reasons this might be being done?

It's a complex discussion. Most are. Simply whittling it down to "it would be handling much more the other way" can't be the best way to look at it.

Did not realize that Andy had already offered the same analysis on the previous page - apologies for the replay.

[3kings]

Originally Posted by freddymo

Don't you have to give them a chance to promote the exclusivity of the wager? Can't most people sign up for NYRA Bets? The issue is California and NJ cant those are big markets

PA a few months ago couldn't. I haven't looked recently.