'17 CROWN TRAIL THREAD: Always Dreaming; Cloud Computing; Tapwrit

[Kasept]

5/20: Preakness Possibles/Probables

Always Dreaming (Pletcher)
Classic Empire (Casse)*
Lookin At Lee (Asmussen)*
Gunnevara (Sano)*
Royal Mo (Shirreffs)
Three Rules (Pinchin)
Senior Investment (McPeek)
Cloud Computing (Brown)
Conquest Mo Money (Hernandez)
Malagacy (Pletcher)

[RHT2004]

Originally Posted by Kasept

5/20: Preakness Possibles/Probables

Always Dreaming (Pletcher)
Classic Empire (Casse)*
Lookin At Lee (Asmussen)*
Gunnevara (Sano)*
Royal Mo (Shirreffs)
Three Rules (Pinchin)
Senior Investment (McPeek)
Cloud Computing (Brown)
Conquest Mo Money (Hernandez)
Malagacy (Pletcher)

Strong pace

[10 pnt move up]

Just feels like a couple years ago, you have a pretty nice horse in the Derby winner and not much else, in fact the crop seems even weaker than AP triple crown year. Its hard to find much to nag about with the Derby winner and he just doesnt have to beat much the next two races.

Quick turnaround is the issue given the barn never does that much.

[richard burch]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

Just feels like a couple years ago, you have a pretty nice horse in the Derby winner and not much else, in fact the crop seems even weaker than AP triple crown year. Its hard to find much to nag about with the Derby winner and he just doesnt have to beat much the next two races.

Quick turnaround is the issue given the barn never does that much.

Already we are dismissing the horses? I think these are better than what AP faced.

Malagacy?Gunnevara? Classic Empire? Are those are weak horses? No way.

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by richard burch

Already we are dismissing the horses? I think these are better than what AP faced.

Malagacy?Gunnevara? Classic Empire? Are those are weak horses? No way.

I think those horses suck in context, really, I do. Classic Empire is the only one with talent but obviously cant put it all together.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

I think those horses suck in context, really, I do. Classic Empire is the only one with talent but obviously cant put it all together.

I tend to agree. There was so much inconsistency in the preps. That said, the combination of the major trouble that many horses encountered in the race and the difficulty of running with mud spraying toward your eyes leaves room for some of this group to come back and look much better in subsequent tries.

[pweizer]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

I tend to agree. There was so much inconsistency in the preps. That said, the combination of the major trouble that many horses encountered in the race and the difficulty of running with mud spraying toward your eyes leaves room for some of this group to come back and look much better in subsequent tries.

Other than Classic Empire at the start, what major trouble did horses have in this race? I really didn't see too many bad trips and would love some insight on things I may have missed.

Paul

[richard burch]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

I think those horses suck in context, really, I do. Classic Empire is the only one with talent but obviously cant put it all together.

Well at the end of the year lets look at the top 5 finishers from the derby, preakness and belmont from this year and 2015 and see who did better.

so far we have in 2016:

always dreaming
looking at lee
battle of midway
classic empire
Practical Joke



vs.

A.P.
Firing Line
Dortmund
Frosted
Danzig Moon
Materiality

[pmayjr]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

Just feels like a couple years ago, you have a pretty nice horse in the Derby winner and not much else, in fact the crop seems even weaker than AP triple crown year. Its hard to find much to nag about with the Derby winner and he just doesnt have to beat much the next two races.

Quick turnaround is the issue given the barn never does that much.

I think it's too early to tell for 1 reason- the mud.

Probably 3/4 of the trainers will say "my horse hated the mud" and will try again in the Belmont. I think a lot legitimately believe that.

If/when Always Dreaming smokes them on a dry track, then I'll agree

[RHT2004]

Cloud Computing feels like a very likely winner of the Preakness.

[knickslions2]

Originally Posted by RHT2004

Cloud Computing feels like a very likely winner of the Preakness.

Besides that Andy likes him why? There are others that look better.

[RHT2004]

Originally Posted by knickslions2

Besides that Andy likes him why? There are others that look better.

He's been high on the horse, but who knows who he likes in this race. Why does it matter?
I want a new face, who else is there unless you want to take 4-5 on the Derby winner? I dont and I've never been a Classic Empire fan and he's obviously not a new shooter.
Who are the others that look better? I see no one. Its Always Dreaming or Cloud Computing. No one else wins this race

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by knickslions2

Besides that Andy likes him why? There are others that look better.

Even I wouldn't make a stupid comment calling Cloud Computing a "likely" Preakness winner but I'm not sure he isn't the third likeliest winner behind Always Dreaming and Classic Empire.

His Gotham was very strong and he has legit excuses in the Wood. I think he will run very well in Baltimore, and probably outrun his odds, which hopefully can get him there.

[cakes44]

Originally Posted by RHT2004

Cloud Computing feels like a very likely winner of the Preakness.

Maybe watch his last two races? He isn't much horse...at least yet.

[raininthrees]

Originally Posted by pmayjr

I think it's too early to tell for 1 reason- the mud.

Probably 3/4 of the trainers will say "my horse hated the mud" and will try again in the Belmont. I think a lot legitimately believe that.

If/when Always Dreaming smokes them on a dry track, then I'll agree

What a difference a year makes and here we are again.
Justify obviously is the goods, but that was a grueling grueling race, the toughest
event of his young career, can he step up again and be competitive
we shall see.

Not since, I believe smarty jones has a horse won the Preakness
after a Muddy Derby Win.

past casualties mine that bird, super saver, orb, always dreaming

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by raininthrees

What a difference a year makes and here we are again. Justify obviously is the goods, but that was a grueling grueling race, the toughest event of his young career, can he step up again and be competitive we shall see.

Not since, I believe smarty jones has a horse won the Preakness
after a Muddy Derby Win.

past casualties mine that bird, super saver, orb, always dreaming

Isn't the wet track follow up circumstantial? First, you have Pletcher's 2 Derby winners that only ran in Baltimore because they were Derby winners. Orb was a beneficiary of a meltdown Derby pace. And Mine That Bird WINS Preakness if Rachel Alexandra doesn't jump into the fray after the Jackson acquisition.

[raininthrees]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Isn't the wet track follow up circumstantial? First, you have Pletcher's 2 Derby winners that only ran in Baltimore because they were Derby winners. Orb was a beneficiary of a meltdown Derby pace. And Mine That Bird WINS Preakness if Rachel Alexandra doesn't jump into the fray after the Jackson acquisition.

you know guys like me, bred for all angles outside
the box and especially when concerning historical
numbers are involved in the fray.

good retort about Rachel, you have me there.
we both know muddy tracks change results
and the others mentioned were not even competitive
in their Baltimore pilgrimage. And fittingly for this
occasion, as EA Poe said it best

“Believe only half of what you see and nothing that you hear”

Justify exudes being the goods, but with track
condition, youth(as bubble will burst sometime in next 90 days)
and the sheer fact of, which has not been talked about enough
on how grueling a race that colt ran to win derby, has me in the
diversify with an insurance policy investment. As going into this
race I trust Good Magic to show up and produce quality effort the most.

3 ways to make money in this Preakness race with
the 3 options requiring a tiered, big to small investment

1)
Justify wins and PRESS Good Magic back with pieces and
peeps can flip the two, rinse/repeat

2)
One of the big 2 wins and the other runs off

3)
someone else wins,Yahtzee

[richard burch]

Originally Posted by Kasept

5/20: Preakness Possibles/Probables

Always Dreaming (Pletcher)
Classic Empire (Casse)*
Lookin At Lee (Asmussen)*
Gunnevara (Sano)*
Royal Mo (Shirreffs)
Three Rules (Pinchin)
Senior Investment (McPeek)
Cloud Computing (Brown)
Conquest Mo Money (Hernandez)
Malagacy (Pletcher)

Pletcher running Malagacy against the derby winner is dangerous. Todd has a big pair of...