Hence has 3rd highest BSF of Derby horses

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

Dunbar, Philski, and Cakes, I agree with you guys 100%.

I don't know how this really relates but I remember back in 2004 there were several 9f races run at Belmont Park over the course of several months. All finished in the same time and all got the same figure. Two of the horses were Ghostzapper and Oratory. I have been skeptical since.

KG, why would that would make you skeptical? Tracks play differently on different days, we all know that. On top of that, horses don't run the same every time.

My problem (and I think philski's and cakes's, too) with the new Hence fig is that I think a BSF should represent the best estimate of the horse's speed from info available at the time of that race. I can see where if the fig was extremely hard to make (e.g., fast changing weather conditions during the day, no other routes or no other sprints) you might want to revisit a number that seems out of whack. If there were issues like that with the Sunland Derby, I didn't see them mentioned. Revisiting the number primarily because 2 horses out of the race ran way bigger figs in subsequent races seems like blatant backfitting.

In general, I'm a big fan of the BSF's. I'm not a fan of adjusting previous figs based on subsequent performances.