Hence has 3rd highest BSF of Derby horses

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

I understand, but it should actually make you more confident in the figure. This was a clear case where the initial number was too low with Irap and Conquest Mo Money running the way they did.

I'm not sure it makes me more confident, but it does make me give a little more chance to those 3 horses, especially Hence. But what happens if Hence has a training blip and skips the Derby to run in the Preakness, while Irap and CMM finish 20 lengths behind the leaders in the Derby? Will the Sunland Derby BSF's get lowered back down 4 points? It's a potential can or worms.

I get that the motivation is to provide the best estimate of the Sunland performance, and I'll use the new figs, but back-fitting data always sets off alarms with me.