Derby Trail Forums

Go Back   Derby Trail Forums > Triple Crown Topics/Archive..
Register FAQ Members List Calendar Today's Posts

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #1  
Old 04-15-2017, 09:02 PM
Kasept's Avatar
Kasept Kasept is offline
Steve Byk
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Greenwich, NY
Posts: 44,272
Default

Castellano commits to Gunnevara..
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad
A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine
Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
Reply With Quote
  #2  
Old 04-16-2017, 12:24 AM
richard burch's Avatar
richard burch richard burch is offline
Churchill Downs
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: new jersey
Posts: 1,752
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kasept View Post
Castellano commits to Gunnevara..
well then he is committed to losing the derby.
__________________
Support your local Re-run or horse rescue organization.
https://www.rerunottb.com/:)
Reply With Quote
  #3  
Old 04-16-2017, 06:42 AM
tywizard tywizard is offline
Lincoln Fields
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Kentucky
Posts: 438
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by richard burch View Post
well then he is committed to losing the derby.
Big Malagacy fan? He committed to the best option available.
Reply With Quote
  #4  
Old 04-16-2017, 09:24 AM
richard burch's Avatar
richard burch richard burch is offline
Churchill Downs
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: new jersey
Posts: 1,752
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by tywizard View Post
Big Malagacy fan? He committed to the best option available.
no, not that horse. true for the other one. if you get a mount in the derby you go.
__________________
Support your local Re-run or horse rescue organization.
https://www.rerunottb.com/:)
Reply With Quote
  #5  
Old 04-16-2017, 11:07 AM
cakes44's Avatar
cakes44 cakes44 is offline
The Curragh
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 2,747
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by richard burch View Post
well then he is committed to losing the derby.
Going out on quite the limb there saying the horse that's gonna be like the 5th choice won't win in a 20 horse field.
Reply With Quote
  #6  
Old 04-17-2017, 09:51 PM
richard burch's Avatar
richard burch richard burch is offline
Churchill Downs
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: new jersey
Posts: 1,752
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by cakes44 View Post
Going out on quite the limb there saying the horse that's gonna be like the 5th choice won't win in a 20 horse field.
"Going out on quite the limb" is my middle name!

Austin Going out on quite the limb Powers.
__________________
Support your local Re-run or horse rescue organization.
https://www.rerunottb.com/:)
Reply With Quote
  #7  
Old 04-17-2017, 09:54 PM
richard burch's Avatar
richard burch richard burch is offline
Churchill Downs
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: new jersey
Posts: 1,752
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by cakes44 View Post
Going out on quite the limb there saying the horse that's gonna be like the 5th choice won't win in a 20 horse field.
but really, I feel more confident in saying he will not win the derby than saying who the winner actually will be. Until the post draw the odds are slightly off now. You know who ever gets the 1,2 or 3 shoot is done.

Ferdinand was the last horse to win from the far inside post (in 1986), and you have to go back to Triple Crown winner Affirmed in 1978 to find a Derby winner that broke from gate No. 2.

- Overall, posts 1 through 4 have a 7.3 percent win rate but Super Saver (2010) is the only winner in the last 17 runnings.

The outside of the gate has had great success in recent years. The auxiliary gate (15-20) has had eight of the last 17 winners, including the aforementioned American Pharoah, I’ll Have Another (post 19, 2012), Animal Kingdom (post 16, 2011) and Big Brown (post 20, 2008).



https://www.americasbestracing.net/t...ns-the-numbers

but I have some thoughts on that.


and don't we get a Japan horse in the field every year?

Epicharis Earns Japan's Kentucky Derby Bid
http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-raci...ucky-derby-bid
__________________
Support your local Re-run or horse rescue organization.
https://www.rerunottb.com/:)

Last edited by richard burch : 04-17-2017 at 10:09 PM.
Reply With Quote
  #8  
Old 04-18-2017, 02:31 PM
Kasept's Avatar
Kasept Kasept is offline
Steve Byk
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Greenwich, NY
Posts: 44,272
Default

Conquest Mo Money will PASS on Derby.. Look at Preakness..
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad
A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine
Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
Reply With Quote
  #9  
Old 04-19-2017, 09:46 AM
LITF LITF is offline
Cahokia Downs
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Posts: 152
Default

Does anyone know what way the connections are leaning with Malagacy and Untrapped? Am finding myself more and more intrigued with Sonnetteer as maybe a long shot bomber to hit the board. And who knows, with the way this years Derby prep season has gone it would seem fitting for a maiden to win.
Reply With Quote
  #10  
Old 04-17-2017, 04:47 AM
tanner12oz tanner12oz is offline
Randwyck
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Pittsburgh
Posts: 1,412
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by richard burch View Post
well then he is committed to losing the derby.
but still hitting the board
Reply With Quote
  #11  
Old 04-17-2017, 12:14 PM
Conrad Conrad is offline
Randwyck
 
Join Date: Feb 2012
Posts: 1,289
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kasept View Post
Castellano commits to Gunnevara..
Hopefully he won't make the same mistake he did with Normandy Invasion and make his move WAY too soon. This colt has a shot with the right set up and ride.
Reply With Quote
  #12  
Old 04-17-2017, 03:33 PM
fantini33's Avatar
fantini33 fantini33 is offline
Churchill Downs
 
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: Boston
Posts: 1,861
Default

Am I the only one that thinks that Irap may be getting good right on cue, for connections that know how to do this, and will be able to make his own trip?

That, to me, is the one that if I don't play, and it pays $56, will be saying out loud that I should have had it.

Am I crazy?
__________________
Good Luck......and may a Derby Trailer lead the way to the window!

Ed
Reply With Quote
  #13  
Old 04-17-2017, 04:00 PM
casp0555's Avatar
casp0555 casp0555 is offline
Saratoga
 
Join Date: Feb 2012
Location: Humble,Texas
Posts: 19,154
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by fantini33 View Post
Am I the only one that thinks that Irap may be getting good right on cue, for connections that know how to do this, and will be able to make his own trip?

That, to me, is the one that if I don't play, and it pays $56, will be saying out loud that I should have had it.

Am I crazy?
Not at all...
__________________
"Wise men talk because they have something to say, fools talk because they have to say something" - Plato
Reply With Quote
Reply



Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

vB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Forum Jump


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 09:30 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.6.8
Copyright ©2000 - 2025, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.