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Old 12-21-2006, 07:38 AM
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Dunbar Dunbar is offline
The Curragh
 
Join Date: May 2006
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hockey2315
1. Horses
2. Football
3. Jai Alai
4. Poker
5. Blackjack
There is a good Jai Alai book that I wish I'd written. It contains an idea I had but sat on for too long, and this author did a good job of working out the odds.

The idea is to figure out exactly how much bias there is in certain quinella and perfecta combos coming up, simply as a result of the game structure. That is, you assume initially that each player (or team) has an equal chance to win a point, and then you see how often 1,2 wins compared to 1,8 or 4,5, etc. The structure creates big differences. (for those who've never seen Jai Alai, 8 players compete. First #1 plays #2; the winner stays on and plays #3, and so on. There's more to it than that, though.)

I think many jai alai bettors understand this intuitively, but I doubt more than a handful have good info on how to apply it. Most bettors I knew growing up in Florida just played their "favorite" numbers. I didn't get too excited about the concept myself because of how small the pools are and worries about cheating. But I did think it would make a good article or book.

--Dunbar
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Curlin and Hard Spun finish 1,2 in the 2007 BC Classic, demonstrating how competing in all three Triple Crown races ruins a horse for the rest of the year...see avatar
photo from REUTERS/Lucas Jackson
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