2.24-26 (CD): Derby Future (Pool 3); Oaks Future (Lone Pool)

ateamstupid · #1 02-27-2017, 02:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

First of all, he likely be higher than 6:1, but even if he is, if he's 1:2 in the Gotham and even money in the Wood ( unlikely but I'll give it to you ), he's less than 5% to win the Derby.....or 20:1. An awful lot of "ifs" to get there.

I get it, they're all bad value, but his is not special. My guess is he's about 25% at best to win both the Gotham and Wood, and then about 12:1 in the Derby...which makes him about 50:1 to win the Derby....and that's in a best case scenario.

I completely disagree with your assessment.

blackthroatedwind · #2 02-28-2017, 07:46 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

I completely disagree with your assessment.

OK, can you do the math for me to defend your side?

ateamstupid · #3 02-28-2017, 03:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

OK, can you do the math for me to defend your side?

You know this, but there's no empirical formula here on either side, it's just rough forecasting based on circumstances and opinion. The point of the future wager is to get significantly better odds than you think are likely on Derby day. I think El Areeb has a reasonable chance to win his next two preps convincingly, in which case he'll likely be a third of his future odds or less in the Derby. If you think he has a 2% chance to win the Derby, I just disagree.

I agree with you that future wagers in general are a bad bet, but this stuck out to me as one that may not be, considering my positive opinion of the horse and the favorable circumstances surrounding his path to the Derby.

blackthroatedwind · #4 02-28-2017, 03:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

You know this, but there's no empirical formula here on either side, it's just rough forecasting based on circumstances and opinion. The point of the future wager is to get significantly better odds than you think are likely on Derby day. I think El Areeb has a reasonable chance to win his next two preps convincingly, in which case he'll likely be a third of his future odds or less in the Derby. If you think he has a 2% chance to win the Derby, I just disagree.

I agree with you that future wagers in general are a bad bet, but this stuck out to me as one that may not be, considering my positive opinion of the horse and the favorable circumstances surrounding his path to the Derby.

Without actually doing the math, this "opinion" can't really be defended. It's really a math equation...and nothing else.

The odds of him winning both the remaining NY preps "easily" enough for him to be 6:1, or 14%, in the Derby are VERY high. High enough, in fact, that 50:1 is likely an underlay. Even an optimistic 50% in the Gotham and 30% in the Wood, and those are very optimistic, make him 50:1 in the Derby. Those are not the chances of him winning the preps, they are the chances of him winning them impressively enough for him to be a so far decidedly unrealistic 6:1 in the Derby.

ateamstupid · #5 02-28-2017, 03:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Even an optimistic 50% in the Gotham and 30% in the Wood, and those are very optimistic, make him 50:1 in the Derby. Those are not the chances of him winning the preps, they are the chances of him winning them impressively enough for him to be a so far decidedly unrealistic 6:1 in the Derby.

Stop it. This is all speculation and estimation on your part, just like it is for me. Your 50-1 number for the Derby is totally arbitrary and I reject it. I think he has a good chance to be 6-1 in the Derby and I don't see a reasonable scenario where he's more than 20-1. I could obviously be wrong, but that's the downside of having an opinion. But I look forward to you scribbling math equations on a chalkboard on Talking Horses going forward instead of the current method of roughly discussing and entertaining competing opinions.

blackthroatedwind · #6 02-28-2017, 03:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Stop it. This is all speculation and estimation on your part, just like it is for me. Your 50-1 number for the Derby is totally arbitrary and I reject it. I think he has a good chance to be 6-1 in the Derby and I don't see a reasonable scenario where he's more than 20-1. I could obviously be wrong, but that's the downside of having an opinion. But I look forward to you scribbling math equations on a chalkboard on Talking Horses going forward instead of the current method of roughly discussing and entertaining competing opinions.

I am giving you numbers, while you are saying there is a "good chance," yet you are saying my thoughts are arbitrary.

This is actually a good discussion. You can't say you think some odds, any odds, are reasonable, without at least thinking it through mathematically.

Stop it? Seriously? That's a response to a contrary side to an argument? Then you make the Talking Horses comment? You're much better than this.

blackthroatedwind · #7 02-28-2017, 03:56 PM

By the way.....there is a flaw in my argument that gives you a little more leeway.

ateamstupid · #8 02-28-2017, 04:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I am giving you numbers, while you are saying there is a "good chance," yet you are saying my thoughts are arbitrary.

This is actually a good discussion. You can't say you think some odds, any odds, are reasonable, without at least thinking it through mathematically.

Stop it? Seriously? That's a response to a contrary side to an argument?

Handicapping horses is not empirical math. You know this. You're being purposefully pedantic. It's about finding your estimation of relative value in a certain pool. If there were a parlay Gotham/Wood/Derby bet, you may be right that that would be better value than the future bet. But relative to the other future propositions, I think El Areeb is good value.