BC NOTEBOOK: Distaff, Classic ~ Final Fields

[tanner12oz]

Great I love the multiday exotics

[Dunbar]

Here are fixed odds currently being offered by one sportsbook. (Bookmaker.eu)

TO WIN LONGINES BREEDERS' CUP DISTAFF - RACE 9
Songbird
-105
Land Over Sea
+8050
Curalina
+1615
Corona Del Inca (ARG)
+8050
Stellar Wind
+385
Forever Unbrindled
+2050
I'm a Chatterbox
+2050
Beholder
+385

I hope we see those 3.85-1 odds in the parimutuals.

Here are their fixed odds for the Classic

ODDS TO WIN BREEDERS' CUP CLASSIC - RACE 12
Effinex
+2123
Frosted
+750
Keen Ice
+2337
California Chrome
+110
Win the Space
+3764
Melatonin
+1242
War Story
+2661
Shaman Ghost
+2337
Hoppertunity
+1661
Arrogate
+285

[taxicab]

I've been reading a lot lately about Songbird running slower than what she'll be facing Friday.
So I figured I would look up the 2015 BC @ Keenland and see how slow she was back then by comparison.
As a 2yo Filly this is how she shook out.......slower...huh ?

BC Juvy Filly:[Songbird] 23.60/47.15(23.55)/111.42(24.27)/1:36.33(24.91)/1:42.73(6.40).

BC Distaff:[Stellar Wind 2nd/Curalina 3rd/ I'm A Chatterbox 8th]
23.57/47.28(23.71)/111.49(24.21)/1:36.36(24.89)1:48.98(12.62).

BC Juvy:[Nyquist winner] 23.49/47.62(24.13)/112.14(24.52)/137.26(25.12)/1:43.79(6.53).

BC Classic:{AP}23.99/47.50(23.51)/111.21(24.26)/1:35.47(24.60)/2:00.07.

So time wise Songbird pretty much ran equal to SW/CUR/IAC did in the Distaff......while setting quicker fractions for the half/3/4's.
In the Distaff the 3 pacemakers all finished up the track.....SW/CUR benefitted from speed duel fractions that were slower then what Songbird set and drew out with.........all things considered,Songbird's Juvy was better than the Distaff.

Nyquist,the 2016 Kentucky Derby winner ran a much slower race up/down than Songbird......a full second+ slower than Songbird.

Now factor in a bigger,stronger....... undefeated in 7 Graded Stakes this year Songbird and I strongly suggest the word slower should never be used in the same sentence as Songbird.
Can Songbird get beat Friday?...........of course she can.
But it won't have a thing to do with her "numbers" or her "slower" way of going.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by taxicab

I've been reading a lot lately about Songbird running slower than what she'll be facing Friday.
So I figured I would look up the 2015 BC @ Keenland and see how slow she was back then by comparison.
As a 2yo Filly this is how she shook out.......slower...huh ?

BC Juvy Filly:[Songbird] 23.60/47.15(23.55)/111.42(24.27)/1:36.33(24.91)/1:42.73(6.40).

BC Distaff:[Stellar Wind 2nd/Curalina 3rd/ I'm A Chatterbox 8th]
23.57/47.28(23.71)/111.49(24.21)/1:36.36(24.89)1:48.98(12.62).

BC Juvy:[Nyquist winner] 23.49/47.62(24.13)/112.14(24.52)/137.26(25.12)/1:43.79(6.53).

BC Classic:{AP}23.99/47.50(23.51)/111.21(24.26)/1:35.47(24.60)/2:00.07.

So time wise Songbird pretty much ran equal to SW/CUR/IAC did in the Distaff......while setting quicker fractions for the half/3/4's.
In the Distaff the 3 pacemakers all finished up the track.....SW/CUR benefitted from speed duel fractions that were slower then what Songbird set and drew out with.........all things considered,Songbird's Juvy was better than the Distaff.

Nyquist,the 2016 Kentucky Derby winner ran a much slower race up/down than Songbird......a full second+ slower than Songbird.

Now factor in a bigger,stronger....... undefeated in 7 Graded Stakes this year Songbird and I strongly suggest the word slower should never be used in the same sentence as Songbird.
Can Songbird get beat Friday?...........of course she can.
But it won't have a thing to do with her "numbers" or her "slower" way of going.

I am confident in saying this is among the worst posts in the history of this message board.

[Alabama Stakes]

Elaborate.... you opened the clam

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

I am confident in saying this is among the worst posts in the history of this message board.

Apparently you forgot smooth operator and that insane vet from ky. You also forgot about pg1985.

[Conrad]

Never seen an undefeated multiple Gr1 winner so summarily dismissed by many big names in this game....okay, I remember Zenyatta

Pundits are quick to point out that she doesn't match up on speed figures.
But how does she match up on pace figures? According to BRISnet figures, she has a huge advantage over everyone at the first call.
Yes I know - the latest race between Beholder and Stellar Wind has nice pace numbers, but that E1 split (which is a 1/2m into the race) is more of an outlier than the norm.
It's entirely plausible that Songbird gets clear after a 1/2m and the other two big players wind up racing one another for the better part of this race. The challenge will come at some point from one or both (and ain't this why we love the sport?) and we may have a war for the ages.
Can't say who wins it, and I won't be betting it (unless Forever Unbridled goes off at a silly price) but I don't think Songbird will just wilt and close up shop when the big girls come calling.

[Rudeboyelvis]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

Apparently you forgot smooth operator and that insane vet from ky. You also forgot about pg1985.

And cannot leave out KentuckyRosesInMay, Sumitas, and Pedigree Ann.

It's going to take quite a bit more work to get into that hall of fame.

[Pants II]

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis

And cannot leave out KentuckyRosesInMay, Sumitas, and Pedigree Ann.

It's going to take quite a bit more work to get into that hall of fame.

KentuckyRosesInMay was a pioneer of the "this horse looks pretty" post-parade analysis. Except she never was paid for her work like the fine ladies who've carried her torch.

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis

And cannot leave out KentuckyRosesInMay, Sumitas, and Pedigree Ann.

It's going to take quite a bit more work to get into that hall of fame.

I literally LOL'ed thinking about THE SUMITAS POST.

[taxicab]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

I am confident in saying this is among the worst posts in the history of this message board.

I didn't realize you were so sensitive.
I apologize for making you cry.

[Dunbar]

Here are the best current odds on the Distaff from 2 offshore books, 5Dimes and Bookmaker: (as of 9:45amEST)

Songbird 1.05 to 1, 5D
Lando'Sea 100-1, 5D
Curalina 20-1, 5D
CoronaD'Inca 80.5-1, Bookmaker
StellarWind 3.2-1, Bookmaker
ForeverUnb'd 21-1, Bookmaker
I'mChatterbox 21-1, Bookmaker
Beholder 3.85-1, 5D

[jms62]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

Here are the best current odds on the Distaff from 2 offshore books, 5Dimes and Bookmaker: (as of 9:45amEST)

Songbird 1.05 to 1, 5D
Lando'Sea 100-1, 5D
Curalina 20-1, 5D
CoronaD'Inca 80.5-1, Bookmaker
StellarWind 3.2-1, Bookmaker
ForeverUnb'd 21-1, Bookmaker
I'mChatterbox 21-1, Bookmaker
Beholder 3.85-1, 5D

Those are US Odds right if not is it a typo on Songbird?

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by jms62

Those are US Odds right if not is it a typo on Songbird?

Yes, US odds. It was actually +105. 5Dimes has taken down its line for today's BC races (still has matchups, though)

Here are Bookmaker's current odds:

TO WIN LONGINES BREEDERS' CUP DISTAFF - RACE 9
Songbird ODDS
+105
Land Over Sea
+8050
Curalina
+1699
Corona Del Inca (ARG)
+8050
Stellar Wind
+287
Forever Unbrindled
+2185
I'm a Chatterbox
+2185
Beholder
+369

[King Glorious]

My selection is Songbird to win.

[Sightseek]

After Beholder, I don't care what happens tomorrow!