BC NOTEBOOK: Distaff, Classic ~ Final Fields

[RHT2004]

Originally Posted by freddymo

You know this is as dumb a comment as Anthony Stabile saying she is the greatest filly of all time on Twitter. Is there a morsel of levity in you? She is clearly extraordinary and while I get you like others as do I, she clearly shouldn't be beyond 5/2 in anyone's way of thinking. We all from time to time loathe 2/1 shots and feel they are WAY over rated but in are brains we know they are not 100/1 shots without a reasonable chance. To just suggest so about a multiple grade 1 filly that has shipped throughout country, never been less the 3.5 lengths in front of her G1 competition at the best circuits in the states is 100/1 is just awful to post

Little bit of a hypocrite, no?? Your bashing her on twitter saying she is no better then 5th. Pretty much exactly what I said.....

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by RHT2004

Little bit of a hypocrite, no?? Your bashing her on twitter saying she is no better then 5th. Pretty much exactly what I said.....

Like I said I wouldn't bet her ever but if you think I don't KNOW that she is 11 for 11 and extraordinary you are mistaken. While Beyer, Serling , Davidowitz, Hogan and others want to look elsewhere they aren't calling her a rank outsider. Even Beyer(DRF Webcast) who thinks as I that she has a good chance to be off the board wouldn't suggest she is a hopeless 100/1 shot, he just knows that several in the field have run MUCH faster on multiple occasions, he doesn't think she is without merit.

[RHT2004]

Originally Posted by freddymo

Like I said I wouldn't bet her ever but if you think I don't KNOW that she is 11 for 11 and extraordinary you are mistaken. While Beyer, Serling , Davidowitz, Hogan and others want to look elsewhere they aren't calling her a rank outsider. Even Beyer(DRF Webcast) who thinks as I that she has a good chance to be off the board wouldn't suggest she is a hopeless 100/1 shot, he just knows that several in the field have run MUCH faster on multiple occasions, he doesn't think she is without merit.

Bro I think your a hypocrite and love the attention. She's 5th or 6th best. That sounds like a rank outsider to me.
You guys came at me pretty hard in this thread and I said nothing different then 5 or 6 well respected guys. Because its me you guys attack. Especially BT who as far as I'm concerned is a total coward. I'm talking races giving opinions. He attacks and disappears. He said I'm why he stays away, judging by his posts we are better without him.

[knickslions2]

Originally Posted by RHT2004

Bro I think your a hypocrite and love the attention. She's 5th or 6th best. That sounds like a rank outsider to me.
You guys came at me pretty hard in this thread and I said nothing different then 5 or 6 well respected guys. Because its me you guys attack. Especially BT who as far as I'm concerned is a total coward. I'm talking races giving opinions. He attacks and disappears. He said I'm why he stays away, judging by his posts we are better without him.

This is the kind of crap Joey we all talk about. You come in a ruin every thread. We don't need 20 posts stating you don't like songbird. We get it she's not a baffert horse so she sucks. Some of us are interested in hearing updates and real opinions. BT is one of the best posters in here and it's a shame he doesn't post on here more but who can blame him. Time to grow up.

[Hickory Hill Hoff]

Originally Posted by knickslions2

This is the kind of crap Joey we all talk about. You come in a ruin every thread. We don't need 20 posts stating you don't like songbird. We get it she's not a baffert horse so she sucks. Some of us are interested in hearing updates and real opinions. BT is one of the best posters in here and it's a shame he doesn't post on here more but who can blame him. Time to grow up.

[-BT-]

Originally Posted by RHT2004

Bro I think your a hypocrite and love the attention. She's 5th or 6th best. That sounds like a rank outsider to me.
You guys came at me pretty hard in this thread and I said nothing different then 5 or 6 well respected guys. Because its me you guys attack. Especially BT who as far as I'm concerned is a total coward. I'm talking races giving opinions. He attacks and disappears. He said I'm why he stays away, judging by his posts we are better without him.

You're not talking races and giving opinions, you're spouting off ignorant comments like songbird should be 100-1 or suggesting someone is voting for Hillary in a .50 pk3 breeders cup thread. I'm not a coward because I replied, that's what you wanted, It's a waste of time to even indulge you with responses, yet here i am trying to explain to you why nobody here likes you, from your mythical wagers, to your "past posting", deleting losing wagers posted, mistyped numbers, endless excuses for your losses, "that cost me 5 figures" losers, that horse was much the best, im the unluckiest person, etc. etc. etc., you make it incredibly hard to root for you with your wagers and in life.
So in short, I'm not a coward I'm just holding you accountable for the comments you make.

And if you can find me 3 analyst who suggest songbird should be 100-1, you will never hear another thing from me again....but if you can't, then you're going to continue to get response like this, from me.


-bt-

[mclem0822]

Originally Posted by -BT-

You're not talking races and giving opinions, you're spouting off ignorant comments like songbird should be 100-1 or suggesting someone is voting for Hillary in a .50 pk3 breeders cup thread. I'm not a coward because I replied, that's what you wanted, It's a waste of time to even indulge you with responses, yet here i am trying to explain to you why nobody here likes you, from your mythical wagers, to your "past posting", deleting losing wagers posted, mistyped numbers, endless excuses for your losses, "that cost me 5 figures" losers, that horse was much the best, im the unluckiest person, etc. etc. etc., you make it incredibly hard to root for you with your wagers and in life.
So in short, I'm not a coward I'm just holding you accountable for the comments you make.

And if you can find me 3 analyst who suggest songbird should be 100-1, you will never hear another thing from me again....but if you can't, then you're going to continue to get response like this, from me.


-bt-

That's going to b like pushing an elephant up a hill!

[Alabama Stakes]

Wow what great a wonderful field of fillies and mares. Should be a really exciting race. One thing for sure, if Songbird wins, she'll have proved her greatness vs the best. There are 6 hosses in the race who should be favorite every time they run. If stellar wind runs at Songbird early and really hard, curalina gonna be difficult to handle at some point. I just think this filly looks so perfect she must be that special one like Go For Wand was.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by Alabama Stakes

Wow what great a wonderful field of fillies and mares. Should be a really exciting race. One thing for sure, if Songbird wins, she'll have proved her greatness vs the best. There are 6 hosses in the race who should be favorite every time they run. If stellar wind runs at Songbird early and really hard, curalina gonna be difficult to handle at some point. I just think this filly looks so perfect she must be that special one like Go For Wand was.

I like songbird, despite thinking she's somewhat over hyped, but to compare her to go for wand is nutty.

[Dunbar]

It's the 100-1 comment that drew so much ire. Even the most skeptical of serious cappers would be hard pressed to put Songbird at worse than 10-1.

Here's my, admittedly crude, line for the Distaff:

PP# Horse.......... FairOdds (to 1)
1 Songbird......... 6
2 LandOverSea... 400
3 Curalina.......... 10
4 CoronaDelInca. 400
5 StellarWind...... 2
6 ForeverUnbr'ld. 18
7 I'mAChat'box... 12
8 Beholder.......... 2

[-BT-]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

It's the 100-1 comment that drew so much ire. Even the most skeptical of serious cappers would be hard pressed to put Songbird at worse than 10-1.

Here's my, admittedly crude, line for the Distaff:

PP# Horse.......... FairOdds (to 1)
1 Songbird......... 6
2 LandOverSea... 400
3 Curalina.......... 10
4 CoronaDelInca. 400
5 StellarWind...... 2
6 ForeverUnbr'ld. 18
7 I'mAChat'box... 12
8 Beholder.......... 2

as a value bettor, give me some landoversea , ha.

Chatter over Curalina?

some people see this as a 2 maybe 3 horse race, yet i'm over here trying to get off the 5 DEEP i want to go (songbird / StellarWind / Beholder / Chatter / Forever Unbridled)

-bt-

[knickslions2]

Originally Posted by -BT-

as a value bettor, give me some landoversea , ha.

Chatter over Curalina?

some people see this as a 2 maybe 3 horse race, yet i'm over here trying to get off the 5 DEEP i want to go (songbird / StellarWind / Beholder / Chatter / Forever Unbridled)

-bt-

I bet that land over sea in oaks

[casp0555]

Originally Posted by -BT-

as a value bettor, give me some landoversea , ha.

Chatter over Curalina?

some people see this as a 2 maybe 3 horse race, yet i'm over here trying to get off the 5 DEEP i want to go (songbird / StellarWind / Beholder / Chatter / Forever Unbridled)

-bt-

I'm cursed with Forever Unbridled...somewhere in my tickets this girl will be

[tanner12oz]

Is a distaff classic double being offered? $1 minimum?

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by tanner12oz

Is a distaff classic double being offered? $1 minimum?

Yes..

[tanner12oz]

Great I love the multiday exotics

[Dunbar]

Here are fixed odds currently being offered by one sportsbook. (Bookmaker.eu)

TO WIN LONGINES BREEDERS' CUP DISTAFF - RACE 9
Songbird
-105
Land Over Sea
+8050
Curalina
+1615
Corona Del Inca (ARG)
+8050
Stellar Wind
+385
Forever Unbrindled
+2050
I'm a Chatterbox
+2050
Beholder
+385

I hope we see those 3.85-1 odds in the parimutuals.

Here are their fixed odds for the Classic

ODDS TO WIN BREEDERS' CUP CLASSIC - RACE 12
Effinex
+2123
Frosted
+750
Keen Ice
+2337
California Chrome
+110
Win the Space
+3764
Melatonin
+1242
War Story
+2661
Shaman Ghost
+2337
Hoppertunity
+1661
Arrogate
+285

[taxicab]

I've been reading a lot lately about Songbird running slower than what she'll be facing Friday.
So I figured I would look up the 2015 BC @ Keenland and see how slow she was back then by comparison.
As a 2yo Filly this is how she shook out.......slower...huh ?

BC Juvy Filly:[Songbird] 23.60/47.15(23.55)/111.42(24.27)/1:36.33(24.91)/1:42.73(6.40).

BC Distaff:[Stellar Wind 2nd/Curalina 3rd/ I'm A Chatterbox 8th]
23.57/47.28(23.71)/111.49(24.21)/1:36.36(24.89)1:48.98(12.62).

BC Juvy:[Nyquist winner] 23.49/47.62(24.13)/112.14(24.52)/137.26(25.12)/1:43.79(6.53).

BC Classic:{AP}23.99/47.50(23.51)/111.21(24.26)/1:35.47(24.60)/2:00.07.

So time wise Songbird pretty much ran equal to SW/CUR/IAC did in the Distaff......while setting quicker fractions for the half/3/4's.
In the Distaff the 3 pacemakers all finished up the track.....SW/CUR benefitted from speed duel fractions that were slower then what Songbird set and drew out with.........all things considered,Songbird's Juvy was better than the Distaff.

Nyquist,the 2016 Kentucky Derby winner ran a much slower race up/down than Songbird......a full second+ slower than Songbird.

Now factor in a bigger,stronger....... undefeated in 7 Graded Stakes this year Songbird and I strongly suggest the word slower should never be used in the same sentence as Songbird.
Can Songbird get beat Friday?...........of course she can.
But it won't have a thing to do with her "numbers" or her "slower" way of going.

[Dunbar]

Here are the best current odds on the Distaff from 2 offshore books, 5Dimes and Bookmaker: (as of 9:45amEST)

Songbird 1.05 to 1, 5D
Lando'Sea 100-1, 5D
Curalina 20-1, 5D
CoronaD'Inca 80.5-1, Bookmaker
StellarWind 3.2-1, Bookmaker
ForeverUnb'd 21-1, Bookmaker
I'mChatterbox 21-1, Bookmaker
Beholder 3.85-1, 5D