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#1
12-19-2006, 11:03 AM
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Lemons needs things to break perfectly for her and there to be traffic trouble like there was in the Oaks. The race completely fell apart. How could it be one of the fastest Oaks in history when her beyer didnt exceed 100?
I had very little money invested in this as I liked Balance but didnt trust her all that much. Wait a While did run very well. 
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#2
12-19-2006, 11:22 AM
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Quote:
CD was not running that fast that day -- and check Lemons time historically. There are people on this board who are seriously duped by Beyer figures. Speed figures are a fallacy. Any time you have a dependent variable (speed figure) based on an iffy independent variable (track variant) you have a formula riddled with error.
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#3
12-19-2006, 11:24 AM
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Beyer figures are truly worthless
I dont totally disagree with this but at the same time, I find it odd that Ole Beyer wouldnt give Lemon a bigger beyer if the race was one of the fatsest runnings of all time. Hes often off the mark but this off?
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#4
12-19-2006, 11:37 AM
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Quote:
Split variants are a fraud. Churchill had rain leading into the BC. The track on BC day got faster as it dried. Yet Beyer said it got slower. Total fraud.
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#5
12-19-2006, 11:57 AM
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Quote:
" Split variants are a fraud ". Thus, you believe 100% that all racetracks maintain the same variant throughout every racing day. Good to know.
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#6
12-19-2006, 12:08 PM
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Quote:
Obviously the amount of water it takes, wind or sun drying out a track, the way its graded, etc etc all can make figure making and splitting variants just about the hardest thing for any figure maker to do. Doesn't matter whether its Beyer, Rag, or Brown this is VERY tricky. I just think that ever since the Valid Video/Shake YOU Down incident that people have really questioned variant splits, especially when they happen with two races run about an hour apart on the same track, with no weaher changes. That incident may have been the worst blown split variant I ever saw. Which of course is going to happen to anyone who makes figures long enough and often enough, but the high profile nature of those two horses and their subsequent starts really made that one ugly. Had it occurred with two allowance horses, noone would have really noticed much. Anyone who doesn't realize that we are talking about a very inexact science when we speak of speed figures really doesn't get how hard they are to accurately make, or how much time and effort goes into making them by any of the top guys.
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#7
12-19-2006, 12:34 PM
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I think it's nearly impossible to make or use speed figures from a Breeders Cup day.
There's absoulutely no inter-race commonality (age/sex/dist/surf/class) so how can anyone come up with a worthwhile number? For example, how many 10F Grade 1 races does Churchill run in a year much less in a day? I firmly believe the same logic holds for higher class races at all tracks. There are just not enough Graded Stakes races run to generate enough of a basis from which to develop meaningful final figures, much less pace figures. I think if you look at a single track, it's FAR more likely that anybody's figs for that track are much more accurate for a $25k claiming class where there may be dozens of races in a sample size than for any Graded Stake where the class/age/etc... components of a race are very rare. I believe in speed and pace figures. I do my own and it's a lot of work. But I play only one track so that helps. I have far greater faith in pace/final pars at the $16k N2L level than I do in those for the Graded or non-Graded stakes races at my track. Just one Stooge's thoughts.
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