Morning Line Question

[jnunan4759]

Agreed. You are handicapping the public, not the race. Plus you have to figure in takeout. Very tough undertaking, especially at SAR when aĺl kinds of buzz goes on. I thing SAR is the toughest morning line to make and Travis did good. It's an undertaking of contradictions. You see a Chad horse that should be bet to 3-1 and it will go 8-5, same with Todd. Then a MSW for somebody get's a buzz and a good workout report comes out 2 days after you made the morning line. A 20-1 shot gets bet to 5-2 and wins and makes you look dumb. Hard stuff.

I think more is made of it than should be. The live odds are the truth and the ML should be accepted as a guesstimate. That can show you interest or disinterest.

For years I've done my own morning lines, along the work of Steve Fiero. I determine my opinion of their chances of winning. From there I look for value.

Very different thing. Take a look at the Sat PA Derby. I think this ML might end up all cockeyed. Most of Parx races are all cut and dry. However, this is like 5 or 6 races on any SAR card. No fault of the ML maker. Not sure if Iggy still does it, but it seems reasonable. However, on Sat it could go all sideways.

You generally can't win from very far behind at Parx. I'm not sure this is the place to change a horse's running style. We got some rain Tuesday, which wiĺl help the track. Forecasts are for dry through weekend.

[declansharbor]

Originally Posted by jnunan4759

Agreed. You are handicapping the public, not the race. Plus you have to figure in takeout. Very tough undertaking, especially at SAR when aĺl kinds of buzz goes on. I thing SAR is the toughest morning line to make and Travis did good. It's an undertaking of contradictions. You see a Chad horse that should be bet to 3-1 and it will go 8-5, same with Todd. Then a MSW for somebody get's a buzz and a good workout report comes out 2 days after you made the morning line. A 20-1 shot gets bet to 5-2 and wins and makes you look dumb. Hard stuff.

I think more is made of it than should be. The live odds are the truth and the ML should be accepted as a guesstimate. That can show you interest or disinterest.

For years I've done my own morning lines, along the work of Steve Fiero. I determine my opinion of their chances of winning. From there I look for value.

Very different thing. Take a look at the Sat PA Derby. I think this ML might end up all cockeyed. Most of Parx races are all cut and dry. However, this is like 5 or 6 races on any SAR card. No fault of the ML maker. Not sure if Iggy still does it, but it seems reasonable. However, on Sat it could go all sideways.

You generally can't win from very far behind at Parx. I'm not sure this is the place to change a horse's running style. We got some rain Tuesday, which wiĺl help the track. Forecasts are for dry through weekend.

Will you be rubbing elbows with the crowd on Saturday or will you be in one of Parx's awesome VIP suites?

[jnunan4759]

Unfortunately, I wiĺl not be there.I want to be but have to work. I have to bring home the bacon. I do get done by the BC, so that is ok. I was talking to a friend tonight and we might throw a bit in on Gun Runner. He really doesn't run any bad races. I'd love him in the tri, but I'm not going to give any money into a 30% takeout bet.

[jnunan4759]

Surprised we got a HD video feed through nyra.com of the PARX races. Maybe one of the last tracks to do any HD. However, the caller, Keith Jones is apparently still using a tin can and string. Either that or he is calling the races from a stall in the men's room. Yikes. HD video was nice, audio quality is still worse than a cell phone. Time to get rid of the Radio Shack audio equipment.

Here's another problem at Parx. There were several bombs on the card today. Since the PA Commission has a spotty history, I'm sure many thought this was "fishy". It's a natural reaction when you have a lack of trust. It's easy to lose and hard to gain back. NYRA has worked hard to do that and has done very well and those horses would be considered differently there. They'd be "bombs", but at Parx they are more likely "fishy". Perception is everything.

Still should be a Gr 1 next year.