Top 25 Most Overrated Performances of '06

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

All races involving Discreet Cat.

You brought it on yourself CJ......

More rehasing of old DrugS posts from elsewhere.....the 2nd "copy-paste" special of mine in this thread...

Discreet Cat VS Ghostzapper through their 3-year-old seasons

Career debut:

Discreet Cat: 1st by 3.5 lengths, 106 Beyer, 0 on Thoro-Graph
Ghostzapper: 1st by 9 lengths, 99 Beyer, 2 on Thoro-Graph


Record through 3yo season:

Discreet Cat: 6-6-0-0
Ghostzapper: 6-4-0-1


Top Career Beyer Through 3yo season:

Discreet Cat: 116
Ghostzapper 116

Worst Beyer of career:

Discreet Cat: 106
Ghostzapper: (3 times under 100)

Top Career Thoro-Graph figure through 3yo season:

Discreet Cat: -4.5 in Spa ALW, -4.75 in Jerome, ? for Cigar Mile
Ghostzapper: -4.5 in Vosburgh. By far his top

Grade 1 wins:

Discreet Cat: 1
Ghostzapper: 1

Number of starts around two-turns:

Discreet Cat: 0
Ghostzapper: 0

Why have the connections been shy to route these horses at a Classic distance:

Discreet Cat: Sire throws milers, dam was a speed mudder
Ghostzapper: Dam dropped confirmed sprinter City Zip

Both have falsly diagnosed pedigrees, and are absolutely bred to be speed routers.

The big difference: Connections:

Discreet Cat: Fools who think it's best to keep a horse in Dubai all winter
Ghostzapper: The magical Bobby Frankel

Conclusion: These horses are VERY similar through there 3-year-old season. Discreet Cat obviously holds the edge to this point----however, even being lightly raced, it's VERY unlikely he will make a big jump in form during his 4yo season like GZ did.

Discreet Cat is about to spend his 2ND entire winter in Dubai.

[cmorioles]

...and again, Ghostzapper is considered great for what he did at 4, not 3. You say yourself it is very unlikely he will make the big jump, so what is the point of the comparison?

This is like comparing Christian Laettner's Duke career to that of Michael Jordan at North Carolina. While both were outstanding at that reduced level, one was clearly overrated when the competition was stepped up. (Hint: It was the white guy)

I have some doubts that DC will be the great horse some make him out to be. I would not be shocked if he is though. But as a bettor, though I'll probably never get the chance, I'll take my shot against him at a ridiculously low price if he ever faces top class horses in the U.S. My main point is that due to the pathetic fields he lined up against, including the Cigar Mile, he performances almost have to be overrated.

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

...and again, Ghostzapper is considered great for what he did at 4, not 3. You say yourself it is very unlikely he will make the big jump, so what is the point of the comparison?

This is like comparing Christian Laettner's Duke career to that of Michael Jordan at North Carolina. While both were outstanding at that reduced level, one was clearly overrated when the competition was stepped up. (Hint: It was the white guy)

I have some doubts that DC will be the great horse some make him out to be. I would not be shocked if he is though. But as a bettor, though I'll probably never get the chance, I'll take my shot against him at a ridiculously low price if he ever faces top class horses in the U.S. My main point is that due to the pathetic fields he lined up against, including the Cigar Mile, he performances almost have to be overrated.

Pre-NBA Laettner *sigh*

Any of the G1's won by Hollywood Story, Star Parade or Healthy Addiction.

What was the grade of the Oaklawn race Buzzard's Bay won?

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

Pre-NBA Laettner *sigh*

Any of the G1's won by Hollywood Story, Star Parade or Healthy Addiction.

What was the grade of the Oaklawn race Buzzard's Bay won?

if it's the oaklawn cap, it's a grade 2.

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by Danzig188

if it's the oaklawn cap, it's a grade 2.

Well in the G2 & G3 category, my nominees are:

Bandini
Buzzard's Bay

[Pointg5]

Bernardini:
1. Jim Dandy
2. Travers
3. Jockey Club Gold Cup
4. Preakness


All 3 are races that were overrated by the Bernmafia, in reality they were nice races, but nowhere near the Crowning Achievements that some made them to be...

[SniperSB23]

I'm now moving Strong Pretender's Dwyer up to #1 on my list and his Super Derby up to #2. I'd probably move the Peter Pan into my top ten as well. At least no one takes Sinister Minister seriously. People honestly believe that Strong Pretender is a very good horse though on the basis of beating Doc Cheney and a hammerlocked Lawyer Ron and ignore the fact that he lost to Praying for Cash in the Haskell and Sunriver and Lewis Michael in the Peter Pan. If I was to rank the top 3yo's on dirt I would place him right around High Cotton, Lewis Michael, and Deputy Glitters. Yet from the sounds of things people actually think this horse would have a shot in the Sunshine Millions. The most overrated horse of 2006 is Strong Contender.

[avance2000]

Originally Posted by Pointg5

Bernardini:
1. Jim Dandy
2. Travers
3. Jockey Club Gold Cup
4. Preakness


All 3 are races that were overrated by the Bernmafia, in reality they were nice races, but nowhere near the Crowning Achievements that some made them to be...

exactly! i couldn't believe i read through 3 full pages of posts before somebody made this point. the words "overrated" and "bernardini" are basically synonymous!
however, even a confirmed bernardini-hater like me would probably rank lava man's dirt wins this year as just as overrated as bern's based on LM's post time odds in the bcc. everybody that knows anything about horse racing knew that horse should have been around 25/1 based on his lifetime of performances outside of California. based on the fact that he was most certainly NOT 25/1....i'd say his performances were severely overrated by the betting public.