Top 25 Most Overrated Performances of '06

Danzig · #1 12-17-2006, 06:54 PM

and poor anew...bad enough he has to lose his junk, and now he's on that list.

saucon17 · #2 12-17-2006, 07:03 PM

Any NJ Bred allowance races at Meadowlands and Monmouth,
They are just way over inflated 5k to 10k claiming races.

philcski · #3 12-17-2006, 07:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by saucon17

Any NJ Bred allowance races at Meadowlands and Monmouth,
They are just way over inflated 5k to 10k claiming races.

J-breds have the best deal in racing.

Sightseek · #4 12-19-2006, 08:28 AM

Tops on my list would also have Circular Quay's Hopeful & Scat Daddy's Champagne.

Gander · #5 12-19-2006, 08:55 AM

1) Wonder Lady Anne- Coaching Club (JJ Castellano with an absolute moronic ride on the late great Pine Island)

2) Brother Derek- San Rafael (Speed bias, 4 hamsters)

3) Lemons Forever- Oaks (Race fell apart and was filled with mediocrity to begin with)

4) Jazil- Belmont (Although not his fault he beat a bunch of gerbils)

5) Scat Daddy- Champagne (Rat Daddy is a better name)

6) Bernardini- Jim Dandy (Most overrated race call by Tom Durkin. It wasnt really as hot as he made it out to be, way exaggerated)

7) Seek Gold- Foster (Perfect Drift is a high priced hanger, I could have gotten by him with a broken leg)

todko · #6 12-19-2006, 09:49 AM

Hey, don't be picking on my girl Lemons -- she's a good horse. And that field was damn good. Wait a While. Bushfire. One of the fastest Oaks in history. Lemons ran a monster race that day and she'll do it again. Circled the field from last to get that final time.

Lemons needs a new jockey with better timing. She also needs to go turf. She would be a monster on the turf with that pedigree. Dallas Stewart was bent to hell trying to win a race in New York when she obviously wasn't even training well. And Guidry kept messing with her running style. Tracking closer to the pace in some races and then going back to a closing kick in other races but missing the timing.

Gander · #7 12-19-2006, 10:03 AM

Lemons needs things to break perfectly for her and there to be traffic trouble like there was in the Oaks. The race completely fell apart. How could it be one of the fastest Oaks in history when her beyer didnt exceed 100?

I had very little money invested in this as I liked Balance but didnt trust her all that much. Wait a While did run very well.

todko · #8 12-19-2006, 10:22 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gander

Lemons needs things to break perfectly for her and there to be traffic trouble like there was in the Oaks. The race completely fell apart. How could it be one of the fastest Oaks in history when her beyer didnt exceed 100?

I had very little money invested in this as I liked Balance but didnt trust her all that much. Wait a While did run very well.

Beyer figures are truly worthless. If you bet the Beyer figures you will lose money. Beyer figures are only slightly better than selecting at random.

CD was not running that fast that day -- and check Lemons time historically.

There are people on this board who are seriously duped by Beyer figures.

Speed figures are a fallacy. Any time you have a dependent variable (speed figure) based on an iffy independent variable (track variant) you have a formula riddled with error.

Gander · #9 12-19-2006, 10:24 AM

Beyer figures are truly worthless

I dont totally disagree with this but at the same time, I find it odd that Ole Beyer wouldnt give Lemon a bigger beyer if the race was one of the fatsest runnings of all time. Hes often off the mark but this off?

JJP · #10 12-19-2006, 10:03 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by todko

Hey, don't be picking on my girl Lemons -- she's a good horse. And that field was damn good. Wait a While. Bushfire. One of the fastest Oaks in history. Lemons ran a monster race that day and she'll do it again. Circled the field from last to get that final time.

Lemons needs a new jockey with better timing. She also needs to go turf. She would be a monster on the turf with that pedigree. Dallas Stewart was bent to hell trying to win a race in New York when she obviously wasn't even training well. And Guidry kept messing with her running style. Tracking closer to the pace in some races and then going back to a closing kick in other races but missing the timing.

First off, the unadjusted time for the Oaks means nothing. The figure came back weak. As for the rider, Guidry is one of the best finishers in the country. A different rider up and LF maybe moves too soon in the Oaks. Unlike the 3YO colts who were very strong this year, the filly group was very subpar.

Gander · #11 12-19-2006, 10:04 AM

Guidry was seen lighting up a cigarette before he even got back to the midget room. LOL!

todko · #12 12-19-2006, 10:13 AM

All of the Bernardini races were grossly overrated. And even Beyer is somewhat apologetic about Bernardini when he recently stated that, "Bernardini is no super horse". Somebody should ask Beyer how he popped those excessive speed figures for a horse that never broke 1:35 in a mile race or 1:50 in a 9 furlong race. Suddenly the horse is cranking 116s and such? And then Beyer comes up with the split variant on Breeders Cup day -- just some "cover your ass" to justify the earlier bloated hype figures for Bernardini. The track suddenly slowed on BC day? No -- the later races were just won by slow horses.

If Beyer and the other press that touted Bernardini worked in the financial services industry they would be on trial or perhaps be in jail for fraud.

Some other hyped performances this year were definitely Lava Man's races out west. Whether it was the proverbial "juice" in CA or beating up on weak fields in CA Lava Man didn't run on BC Classic Day. His connections shipped early, prepped at KEE, and the horse didn't offer much on the big day.

Another dog was Bob and John. How anybody -- be it Hank Goldberg -- or whoever could pick this dog to win the Derby or the Belmont is beyond me.

Some of the underrated performances of the year:

Jazil. This is a race horse. Solid fractions in the Belmont and solid final time. Would have beaten all of the previous Belmont winners in this decade including Afleet Alex. Look at the charts if you don't believe me. Would have beaten any other class of '06 3 year old at 12f with the exception of Barbaro. This horse can be 30 lengths back and charges unfazed through traffic. Dirt in his face, traffic, slop, you name it -- this horse is a charger. You might have missed the call in the Belmont. That's no reason to deny this horse the the accolades that are due. He's a credit to the class of '06 and a credit to horse racing. The only horse that hung with Barbaro's final fractions in the Derby was Jazil (2nd fastest final fractions -- only Secretariat closed better in Derby history).

Lost in the Fog. Foggy -- cancered up -- blistered Churchill Downs. A Soldier for sure.

From a kid who watched Secretariat to an adult who had a great time this year. 2006 -- despite the difficult times -- was definitely one of the greatest years I've ever seen in horse racing. This year was stunning.