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  #1  
Old 04-29-2016, 05:58 PM
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Kasept Kasept is offline
Steve Byk
 
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Originally Posted by RHT2004 View Post
Great minds like you and I don't always think alike. We have 8 different horses between our top 8. Love the read though.
Joe.

There's going to be a lot of that in this Derby on exactly the scenario I suggest: picking a pace and choosing horses under its' guidelines. If you take 2 late runners, it could be Mo Tom and Brody's Cause as easily as Creator and Suddenbreakingnews. If you want near lead and mid-pack types it can be Nyquist and Mor Spirit or Outwork and Exaggerator or Gun Runner and Destin. That's what makes this such an interesting wagering opportunity.

What I wanted to do with the analysis was give readers an approach. The horses are really secondary. I'd be as comfortable with Outwork, Mor Spirit, Shagaf, Trojan Nation as the 4 price players. Plug in your own.. Everyone knows who the major players are. Take 4-6 of the offbeat players, play them in an attempt at a huge score (EX & TRI boxes or keys if you feel strongly about a particular price) as well as hooking them up with the obvious (backwheeled under the faves).

I think you play this particular Derby for a chaotic result. Going to be a fun week! G/L..
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  #2  
Old 04-30-2016, 12:19 AM
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philcski philcski is offline
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Originally Posted by Kasept View Post
Joe.

There's going to be a lot of that in this Derby on exactly the scenario I suggest: picking a pace and choosing horses under its' guidelines. If you take 2 late runners, it could be Mo Tom and Brody's Cause as easily as Creator and Suddenbreakingnews. If you want near lead and mid-pack types it can be Nyquist and Mor Spirit or Outwork and Exaggerator or Gun Runner and Destin. That's what makes this such an interesting wagering opportunity.

What I wanted to do with the analysis was give readers an approach. The horses are really secondary. I'd be as comfortable with Outwork, Mor Spirit, Shagaf, Trojan Nation as the 4 price players. Plug in your own.. Everyone knows who the major players are. Take 4-6 of the offbeat players, play them in an attempt at a huge score (EX & TRI boxes or keys if you feel strongly about a particular price) as well as hooking them up with the obvious (backwheeled under the faves).

I think you play this particular Derby for a chaotic result. Going to be a fun week! G/L..
I agree with your chaotic result thought. I see it one of two ways: (1) Nyquist wins easily, because he's simply better than these, or (2) he doesn't want to 10F or doesn't run his race and there's mass chaos. I'm playing for #2.
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  #3  
Old 04-30-2016, 05:22 AM
RHT2004 RHT2004 is offline
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I agree with your chaotic result thought. I see it one of two ways: (1) Nyquist wins easily, because he's simply better than these, or (2) he doesn't want to 10F or doesn't run his race and there's mass chaos. I'm playing for #2.
His mid 90 beyer while drifting out makes him better? He is slow.
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  #4  
Old 04-30-2016, 05:33 AM
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Kasept Kasept is offline
Steve Byk
 
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His mid 90 beyer while drifting out makes him better? He is slow.
I too am against him at the favorite's price, but be careful with that line of thinking and don't be too dismissive of Nyquist when structuring all your plays.

As Gary Young said yesterday, 'He's been fast enough to beat every horse that's been lined up against him'.

An exacta or tri saver with your tabs and Nyquist (or Exaggerator) is a modest insurance policy.
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All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad
A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine
Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
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  #5  
Old 04-30-2016, 05:57 AM
57rick 57rick is offline
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Churchill is not listed on XB. Com. I called and they said it would be available on Derby Day only. Anyone know if this is correct? Thanks in advance.
Rick
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  #6  
Old 04-30-2016, 08:05 AM
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Churchill is not listed on XB. Com. I called and they said it would be available on Derby Day only. Anyone know if this is correct? Thanks in advance. Rick
Johnny D says as of this week, he is unaware of any issue between normal CD racing and Xpressbet.

Possible that DRF Bets customers may have an issue which stems from a dispute last Derby.
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All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad
A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine
Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
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  #7  
Old 04-30-2016, 08:18 AM
57rick 57rick is offline
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Thank you Steve!
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  #8  
Old 05-02-2016, 12:32 PM
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philcski philcski is offline
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Originally Posted by RHT2004 View Post
His mid 90 beyer while drifting out makes him better? He is slow.
Well they're all slow. And Beyer figures are useless these days. I'll put 20% of my money through him as insurance but I'm against for the most part.
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