Robot Spot Plays 11/24

[Easy Goer Otis]

I went to Vegas in July to learn how to utilize some software and have since loaded it daily with every thoroughbred race result from North America. From there, I have fiddled around with various handicapping theories or angles until I find spot plays that have either a very high win % or ROI of at least $1.15 per $1.00 wagered.

Here are today's spot plays, with WPS% and ROI (since July).


PRX1: #7 Tiny Predicament 9/2
Spot#72: Michael Pino in CL and MCL races with closers.
WIN: 39% $1.27
PLA: 61% $1.27
SHO: 61% $0.93
5th - forwardly placed to the far turn and then flattened out

PRX3: #2 Discreet Duke 5/2
Spot#68: M. Serey in CL and MCL races with a top 2 MLO horse
WIN: 43% $2.80
PLA: 50% $1.13
SHO: 68% $0.89
3rd: $2.10 showed the way for 6f and faded in the drive


MVR3: #8 Lily's Jackies Boy 7/2
Spot #26: Top two sustained pace, form cycle rating, class, and trainer in routes. Field size >6
WIN: 59% $1.14
PLA: 78% $1.07
SHO: 89% $1.03
4th - inside run to the quarter pole and then leveled off in the stretch with no late gain.

FL7: #3 Storm On The Mesa 2/1
Spot #62: Sky Mesa progeny with top early pace velocity and a top 2 jockey.
WIN: 40% $1.01
PLA: 67% $1.39
SHO: 67% $0.95
SCRATCHED

TUP2: #1 Gunfire 5/2
Spot #81: 2TS sired by Tapit, with top 2 jockey and no weak final fraction.
WIN: 73% $2.30
PLA: 91% $1.56
SHO: 100% $1.31
2nd $2.60 $2.20 - stalked the pace while racing inside, angled out on the turn, swungwide, bid
willingly and was no match for the winner

PRX9: #6 La Colonial 5/2
Spot #69: Keith Nations-trained horses in CL and MCL races with highly rated pedigree.
WIN: 55% $1.53
PLA: 64% $1.03
SHO: 73% $0.93
WIN $3.20 $2.80 $2.20 - won by open lengths

TUP6: #2 Sheza Lucky Strike 6/1
Spot #41: Sired by Looking at Lucky, with top 2 jockey and no weak final fraction.
WIN: 40% $1.31
PLA: 64% $1.31
SHO: 68% $1.01
4th - Wound up on the bottom end of a three way photo for 2nd and was gaining late.

TUP8: #3 Blue Ratio 3/1
Spot #36: Top early velocity, top EPS last 365 days, and razor sharp workout for dirt sprints up to 6.5f.
WIN: 56% $2.15
PLA: 61% $1.20
SHO: 61% $0.88
SCRATCHED

TUP8: #8 Celestial Image 6/1
Spot #58: Outposted horses in 5.5-6f races with top 2 velocity rating and top 2 turn time ranking.
WIN: 29% $1.14
PLA: 51% $1.01
SHO: 65% $0.93
2nd: by a 1/4 length to the 1-9 favorite. Sent off at 14-1, but only paid $4.40 $2.40 to place and show. The wire came too soon. She was flying at the end.

DED8: #5 Oh Baby 3/2
Spot #76: S. Breaux with a horse at the top of its form cycle.
WIN: 50% $1.58
PLA: 58% $1.08
SHO: 58% $0.85
WIN: $2.20 $2.10 $2.10 - Tons the best. Free space in the P4

Recap:
8 spots after scratches. 25% win, 50%WP, 68% ITM.
8 win bets = ($10.60 loss)
8 pla bets = ($6.20 loss)
8 sho bets = ($7.40 loss)


Recommended use:

Win % >35%: use as an "A" in horizontals or as a conservative pick in contest play (usually head-to-head games)

ROI > $1.25: Exotics and contest play

Caveat: while many of these spots have multidimensional filters that would be difficult to synthesize by eyeballing a PP form, it does not take into account the most important factor - how a horse is feeling that day.

For that, I strongly advise watching the post parade before making any wagers. If the horse looks interested in competing and you can find some comments in the past few races that indicate it will expend max effort until the end of the race, then it's a play.

Good luck today!

Cheers,

Otis

[casp0555]

MVR 9

$6 ex box 9,11

[casp0555]

Originally Posted by casp0555

MVR 9

$6 ex box 9,11

11-9 paid 38.60 x 3 = 115.80