Liam's Map=Cross Traffic part 2?

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Uncle Daddy

Your assumption is original owners don't call the shots and because WPT took a stake they make the decisions? Not possible the original owners think he fits in a G1 mile for $600K and that he might not have the stuff to defeat the big 3 in the Classic?

Whoever is responsible for this decision made a bad one. Period. It really isn't even debatable.

The decisions cannot be result oriented in ANY way. From an expected value perspective his purse earning figure to be similar for both races ( 50% in a $1 million race giving him the benefit of the doubt that he will be even money equal $500K in expected earnings while roughly 10:1, maybe too high but close, in a $5 million race gives him the same $500K in expected earnings ). However, the potential intrinsic gains by running in the Classic FAR outweigh those of the Dirt Mile. In the Dirt Mile, he rates to gain NOTHING from a breeding perspective with a win, and could in fact hurt himself ( probably slightly ) with a loss. However, a win, or even a good second, has real intrinsic value for him as a stallion, and a loss would do next to nothing to tarnish his value.

This is what matters...not whether you or I, or anybody, think he can win either race, or where he has a better chance. That nonsense is irrelevant and, frankly, just gets in the way of making the clear correct decision. To me, it is inarguable.