8/29 (SAR): 146th Travers Day; 6 Graded Stake Undercard

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

Sure would like to have seen Mr. Z in the Travers and not the King's Bishop. There is no pace rival whatsoever to accompany American Pharoah in his next cakewalk. I presume either Joel Rosario or Kent Desormeaux (likely the latter) will send half-heartedly not wanting to make it easy for the Triple Crown winner while also knowing that their mount's best chance will be compromised. Frosted is starting to have the look of a dedicated bridesmaid, so I would prefer if he was sent up on the engine early. Desormeaux, however, has a penchant for taking early runs at odds-on favorites regardless of his own mount's chances, and given Texas Red's early presence in a slow-paced Jim Dandy, I foresee either a hustle from the gate or some ridiculous mid-race move that will lead to a hanging stretch run.

Meanwhile, as they round the far turn, if either gets close enough to AP to actually put some real pressure, expect Keen Ice to look like Concern circa '94 for about a 1/16th of a mile. Once they straighten up, he'll look like Hold Me Back circa '09.

The silver lining in all this is that AP will be the first horse to win the top 5 races in NA for 3yos (at least since the creation of the Haskell). I think the only Triple Crown winner to also take down the Travers was Whirlaway in 1941 (Affirmed won but was DQ'd for sawing off Alydar).

If you subscribe to CJ's pace figs, the pace in the Haskell was extremely fast probably meaning the end to the career of Competitive Edge circa TAP 2000-2015. If you subscribe to CJ's pace figs the brilliant Beholder wouldnt/couldn't get a sniff of AP's butt crack without succumbing to the same fate as others.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by freddymo

If you subscribe to CJ's pace figs, the pace in the Haskell was extremely fast probably meaning the end to the career of Competitive Edge circa TAP 2000-2015. If you subscribe to CJ's pace figs the brilliant Beholder wouldnt/couldn't get a sniff of AP's butt crack without succumbing to the same fate as others.

Not sure what the Haskell or Beholder has to do with the Travers. With no rival with even a hint of front-running speed, it is unlikely American Pharoah will have to go as fast early in the Travers as he did in the Haskell (hence the "cakewalk").

At the very least, presuming he gets to run a steady race (as opposed to the "run them off their feet" manner used at middle distances), we will see if AP can match or better Beholder's figure at the classic distance of 10f. I'm not convinced Beholder can uncork a race like the Pacific Classic every time out, but aren't AP's Derby and Belmont figures just a tick behind that race?

[Left Bank]

What I find disturbing is the entries by 3 very reputable trainers. Maybe this would explain their low win percentages at Saratoga.

Upstart hasnt surpassed his figure (Funny Cide Stakes) as a two year old yet. He is sitting on a big performance. I can see him as the upset and his recent works look wickedly good. Tall task to beat AP but I say he can get it done.

[10 pnt move up]

Triple Crown winner, biggest race of the summer, and no way to watch it? Really.

[cakes44]

Originally Posted by helicopter11

Upstart hasnt surpassed his figure (Funny Cide Stakes) as a two year old yet. He is sitting on a big performance. I can see him as the upset and his recent works look wickedly good. Tall task to beat AP but I say he can get it done.

Tip of the hat if you hit. I think Upstart is the most overrated 3-year-old in the crop. The New York people tend to hold onto their horses like Grimm death.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by Left Bank

What I find disturbing is the entries by 4 very reputable trainers. Maybe this would explain their low win percentages at Saratoga.

Makes perfect sense. Great purse...and you never know.
ap looks great.

[Danzig]

See. Too bad

[Left Bank]

Well, it's called the graveyard of favorites for a reason.

[Kitan]

And that's how you run a horse race. Think you have the "better" horse then ride him as such and don't let the "champ" get it easy as per usual.