August 8th Saratoga Points Picks go here

[JolyB]

Originally Posted by DonGuido

Since many here are tuned in to Saratoga races much better than me and most of the rest of us, first question (and this may but likely will not help us latter on in the meet) . . . share you secrets for:

1. Why pick the 7 horse to win in Race 1?

One possible explanation - if you watch Talking Horses on the NYRA website (shown between 11:45 and 12:15), you would have seen both host Andy Serling and guest Andy Beyer pick him on top - but they were looking for a price play based on his ML of 12-1. Please notice that I didn't edit that pick - wrong again for me.

Another possible explanation - David Jacobson, who makes his living in the claiming ranks by claiming high and entering low. In this case, Looking Cool had run in the Grade 2 CharlesTown Classic in April, ran for cl 50 in June and July, and was now entered in a cl 32. As Jacobson goes, this was a rather modest drop.

[DonGuido]

Originally Posted by JolyB

One possible explanation - if you watch Talking Horses on the NYRA website (shown between 11:45 and 12:15), you would have seen both host Andy Serling and guest Andy Beyer pick him on top - but they were looking for a price play based on his ML of 12-1. Please notice that I didn't edit that pick - wrong again for me.

Another possible explanation - David Jacobson, who makes his living in the claiming ranks by claiming high and entering low. In this case, Looking Cool had run in the Grade 2 CharlesTown Classic in April, ran for cl 50 in June and July, and was now entered in a cl 32. As Jacobson goes, this was a rather modest drop.

Still a stretch for me and you too I guess. I've listened to the "Experts" too many times in the past and it's messed me up. I've concluded in my own little handicapping brain that I'm as much of an expert as they are. Maybe Saratoga is the exception. Then again, my expertise is highly suspect when it comes to making money at the track but if I'm wrong because I picked the horses I'm just a little miffed. If my picks or wagers are wrong because I listened to anyone else I'm sincerely P-O'd.

But good logic for picking the 7 . . . but, but errr uhh "logic" in horse racing???

[JolyB]

Originally Posted by DonGuido

Still a stretch for me and you too I guess. I've listened to the "Experts" too many times in the past and it's messed me up. I've concluded in my own little handicapping brain that I'm as much of an expert as they are. Maybe Saratoga is the exception. Then again, my expertise is highly suspect when it comes to making money at the track but if I'm wrong because I picked the horses I'm just a little miffed. If my picks or wagers are wrong because I listened to anyone else I'm sincerely P-O'd.

But good logic for picking the 7 . . . but, but errr uhh "logic" in horse racing???

I know what you mean, Don G. Part of the enjoyment of handicapping for me is doing the analysis and trying to make my selections and wagers, then seeing if I passed the test or not. Simply taking an expert's opinion and making it mine just doesn't mean much. Then again, I do like to see how others who are closer to the industry size up a race - sometimes that will help me spot trends or make me go back to my marked up pages to see if I missed something important. It also sometimes helps explain to me why the tote action doesn't follow the ranges that I had expected - some of those talking heads can drive a price down, especially at a track like Saratoga, where there is a higher percentage of on track action than at many other tracks.

[DonGuido]

The Whitney:

So much for my V.E. Day, Moreno and Wicked Strong, horses for the course, idea . . . the old farts are like me . . . almost washed up. Put'em out to pasture and I'll join'em. The pace by Liam's Map was crazy and Honor Code catches him at the wire and pays 9.50. I love it.

[cruzan200246]

I have three good reasons and those reasons works for me 90% of the time if the horse leads in all three categories. I'll be giving away my secret. LOL. But I give you a good hint.

[cruzan200246]

There's no reason why Tonalist lost except that the jokey rallied him too freaking late. That goes to show that jockeys need to read the PP's too if they don't. LOL Tonalits had more power.