American Pharoah... what's next for our new Champion? (The Haskell)

[DonGuido]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

There are incentives in place for zayat at to keep him winning. These will more than easily pay for the increased insurance premium, which is probably being paid for by Coolmore anyways.

They could make another 5 million in purses as well.

Of course, his speed figures are glacial like, so he'll probably never win again.

Huh???

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by DonGuido

Huh???

his speed figures, particularly beyers, have been comically and idiotically low.

I'm being facetious about him never winning again.

[pointman]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

his speed figures, particularly beyers, have been comically and idiotically low.

I'm being facetious about him never winning again.

I am one that does believe in speed figures, but I believe in a realistic manner. They are never the be all and end all on handicapping a horse. There are other factors to take into account, in particular whether a horse is likely to increase or decrease off a certain speed figure in a particular scenario and whether the figure is likely to be accurate under the particular circumstances, trip, dynamics, etc. I find it interesting that the 105 that Beyer has assigned and the 128 that Craig has is likely to be much more accurate due to a 1 1/2 mile race being run earlier in the card.

Having said that, I don't have handy the fractions of Smarty Jones' Belmont but I am pretty certain it went much faster than AP's did early on and taking into factors overall, particularly the dynamics that Smarty faced in the Belmont versus AP on Saturday, I believe that Smarty ran a better race. I also think that AP has a lot of room for improvement off what he has run thus far but only time will tell if the connections are true that he will continue racing.

But at the end of the day, I think if the Breeder's Cup were one month from today, Shared Belief would easily beat AP right now. A race or two down the line and improvement by AP by November might change my opinion, but I believe the evidence we have right now supports that conclusion.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by pointman

I am one that does believe in speed figures, but I believe in a realistic manner. They are never the be all and end all on handicapping a horse. There are other factors to take into account, in particular whether a horse is likely to increase or decrease off a certain speed figure in a particular scenario and whether the figure is likely to be accurate under the particular circumstances, trip, dynamics, etc. I find it interesting that the 105 that Beyer has assigned and the 128 that Craig has is likely to much more accurate due to a 1 1/2 mile race being run earlier in the card.

Having said that, I don't have handy the fractions of Smarty Jones' Belmont but I am pretty certain it went much faster than AP's did early on and taking factors overall, particularly the dynamics that Smarty faced in the Belmont versus AP on Saturday, I believe that Smarty ran a better race. I also think that AP has a lot of room for improvement off what he has run thus far but only time will tell if the connections are true that he will continue racing.

But at the end of the day, I think if the Breeder's Cup were one month from today, Shared Belief would easily beat AP right now. A race or two down the line and improvement by AP by November might change my opinion, but I believe the evidence we have right now supports that conclusion.

it's not like I have a low opinion on shared belief, but if the bc was in a month,sb would likely still be recuperating in Washington.

I still don't know how good AP is, as he is still improving, while winning easily, except for the derby, where I've felt all along he was either short or had an off day.

The odds of it happening are highly unlikely, but a bcc featuring sb, AP and possibly kentuckian would be freaking awesome. I'd be completely at a loss as to who would win. Throw honor code into the mix and that would be the most exciting race in ages.

As to the result of the Brooklyn, to quote my favorite star trek line, irrelevant, irrelevant, irrelevant!

I get what you are saying about that, but number zealots should learn to use and trust their senses, especially their vision.

Can't these people see that when he runs his normal race, other horses that try to run with or to him get run off their feet?

It's incomprehensible to me how anyone can't see the improvement from each leg of the triple crown to the next. His derby, on paper, was better than his Preakness? That is an absurdity of biblical proportions. His Belmont barely better than his Preakness? The Beyer clan needs to retire, that opinion being so so bad.

It's as if a lightly raced young horse racing himself into top shape cannot improve from one race to another? Is that the implication?

Smarty ran an awesome race indeed. It was Herculean in effort. The thing is though, was that he ran as good a race as was possible. Pharoah? He could have been asked even earlier and his win would have been even more dramatic. He toyed with his opponents in a manner similar to what fupeg did to the deputy at Santa Anita. They both schooled their foes and could have won more impressively.

Therefore, I'd say AP was more impressive of the two.

[Easy Goer Otis]

My hope is for another talented 3yo to emerge (or re-emerge) and start gaining momentum over the summer. I think AP has soundly proven that the 31 horses he has beaten in this TC series are no serious match for him at the Classic distances.

I don't know their injury status, but it would be cool if a Texas Red, One Lucky Dane, Calculator or a Khozan-type came back strong over the summer.

Probably just more fresh meat for AP, but a fresh shooter rival would add even more drama to the story. However, I suspect it might need to come from the older division.

Cheers,

Otis

[joeydb]

I hope he goes for the Travers, and takes a shot at Whirlaway's record of being the only horse so far to sweep the Triple Crown and win the Travers.

American Pharoah is that good, and I would love to see him match another long standing record of distinction.

The Breeders' Cup Classic is the logical choice for his last race.

I am very glad Zayat is continuing to race him for the rest of the year. The guy really seems to love our sport and he can have a positive impact. His remarks post-Belmont were great.

[SundayStar]

you know these tacky endorsement deals just might be the thing that keeps the Pharaoh racing the rest of this year. upon winning the triple crown, he instantly became the most famous racehorse in a long time. very marketable.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

I still don't know how good AP is, as he is still improving, while winning easily, except for the derby, where I've felt all along he was either short or had an off day.

Coincidentally, it's the only race where a strong pace rival (or two) was in front him early and did not fold like a cheap suit, forcing him to dig into his "reserves" if you like.

That is besides when Om outran him in his debut.

The odds of it happening are highly unlikely, but a bcc featuring sb, AP and possibly kentuckian would be freaking awesome. I'd be completely at a loss as to who would win. Throw honor code into the mix and that would be the most exciting race in ages.

You should at least know that Kentuckian would run dead last. Or are we assuming that he'll have won the Los Alamitos Derby, Travers, and Pennsylvania Derby by widening lengths with no sign of weakening or vulnerability that would make one think that he couldn't just simply keep going on and on no matter the pace scenario, distance, surface, or planet for that matter?

As to the result of the Brooklyn, to quote my favorite star trek line, irrelevant, irrelevant, irrelevant!

Why? Because Coach Inge was making his graded stakes debut from a conditioned allowance race, yet ran nearly as fast as the subsequent Triple Crown winner? In fact, running a faster final quarter mile than AP, ironically the lynchpin amongst a cascade of commentators as to why American Pharoah's Belmont was such a megaperformance.

I get what you are saying about that, but number zealots should learn to use and trust their senses, especially their vision.

But that's why numbers came to prominence, because people's biases come into play and they tend to see what they want...especially when it comes to their favorite horses.

Can't these people see that when he runs his normal race, other horses that try to run with or to him get run off their feet?

Certainly, amongst a narrow group of 3yos, this has been the case...when he's had the run of the race. Again, when he didn't have the run of the race (i.e., a perfect trip) he was nowhere near invincible or dominating.

It's incomprehensible to me how anyone can't see the improvement from each leg of the triple crown to the next. His derby, on paper, was better than his Preakness? That is an absurdity of biblical proportions. His Belmont barely better than his Preakness? The Beyer clan needs to retire, that opinion being so so bad.

The Derby was much better than the Preakness. At least in Kentucky, despite coming back down to earth, he showed some mettle when neither Firing Line nor Dortmund packed it in when he came to them. At Pimlico, he did exactly what you purport, that he simply runs horses off their feet...only he went so fast for the first 3/4s that he exhausted himself, as plain as day if you simply look at his come-home time in that race. Perhaps if a strong finisher was in there, you know, besides Tale of Verve, there might have been a different outcome. Too bad today's horsemen don't remember the plethora of Derby also-rans in the '80s and '90s that came back and reversed form at Pimlico.

It's as if a lightly raced young horse racing himself into top shape cannot improve from one race to another? Is that the implication?

Is your implication that American Pharoah was merely "prepping" for the Belmont in the Derby and Preakness?

Ridiculous.

Smarty ran an awesome race indeed. It was Herculean in effort. The thing is though, was that he ran as good a race as was possible. Pharoah? He could have been asked even earlier and his win would have been even more dramatic. He toyed with his opponents in a manner similar to what fupeg did to the deputy at Santa Anita. They both schooled their foes and could have won more impressively.

This logic is silly that somehow American Pharoah can simply go fast early, keep going fast, go faster if challenged, and faster still for an indefinite distance. He proved in the Preakness that going fast early blunts his finishing power. He proved in the Derby that if hooked by a quality rival he is unable to simply "run away" from them. Certainly, if there was something else in the Belmont of the quality of a Rock Hard Ten or an Eddington that could have put pressure on American Pharoah in the middle of the race, we might have seen Frosted emulate Birdstone.

I like the allusion to Fusaichi Pegasus. If ever there was a horse that looked like he could simply do anything and "toy with rivals" and keep going indefinitely, getting stronger with each furlong, it was that horse.

And yet, as it turned out, as his race record suggests, he was nothing of the sort.

Therefore, I'd say AP was more impressive of the two.

But not as impressive as Kentuckian if you extrapolate another 3 furlongs to that one's 7f performances.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

Coincidentally, it's the only race where a strong pace rival (or two) was in front him early and did not fold like a cheap suit, forcing him to dig into his "reserves" if you like.

That is besides when Om outran him in his debut.








The Derby was much better than the Preakness. At least in Kentucky, despite coming back down to earth, he showed some mettle when neither Firing Line nor Dortmund packed it in when he came to them. At Pimlico, he did exactly what you purport, that he simply runs horses off their feet...only he went so fast for the first 3/4s that he exhausted himself, as plain as day if you simply look at his come-home time in that race. Perhaps if a strong finisher was in there, you know, besides Tale of Verve, there might have been a different outcome. Too bad today's horsemen don't remember the plethora of Derby also-rans in the '80s and '90s that came back and reversed form at Pimlico.


.

Baffert suggests AP needed the Derby and was not fit enough going into the race and that it helped get him more fit. I don't know if its true but he certainly suggested as much. The point is even the incredibly fast G1 winning 110+ wonderfully talented well bred for distance Materialty got gutted by the AP even with AP's inferior damside distance pedigree. I dont recall the BSF's Rock Hard Ten got in the Malibu or SA Derby but I dont think its was as high as the wonderfully bred gifted talented Materialty. I havent seen Firing Line or dortmund in a while I hope they come back in Travers.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by freddymo

Baffert suggests AP needed the Derby and was not fit enough going into the race and that it helped get him more fit. I don't know if its true but he certainly suggested as much. The point is even the incredibly fast G1 winning 110+ wonderfully talented well bred for distance Materialty got gutted by the AP even with AP's inferior damside distance pedigree. I dont recall the BSF's Rock Hard Ten got in the Malibu or SA Derby but I dont think its was as high as the wonderfully bred gifted talented Materialty. I havent seen Firing Line or dortmund in a while I hope they come back in Travers.

Freddy, any cursory glance at Todd Pletcher horses that had belated starts to their careers yet ran in the Triple Crown would suggest that Materiality won't be seen for a while, and certainly, just as in the case of Upstart in the Kentucky Derby, one should not take the performance at face value.

Of course, if neither ever appears again we might never know how accurate the Florida Derby figure is, but at least recall that Frosted was running down in Florida this winter, too.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

Coincidentally, it's the only race where a strong pace rival (or two) was in front him early and did not fold like a cheap suit, forcing him to dig into his "reserves" if you like.

That is besides when Om outran him in his debut.


You should at least know that Kentuckian would run dead last. Or are we assuming that he'll have won the Los Alamitos Derby, Travers, and Pennsylvania Derby by widening lengths with no sign of weakening or vulnerability that would make one think that he couldn't just simply keep going on and on no matter the pace scenario, distance, surface, or planet for that matter?


Why? Because Coach Inge was making his graded stakes debut from a conditioned allowance race, yet ran nearly as fast as the subsequent Triple Crown winner? In fact, running a faster final quarter mile than AP, ironically the lynchpin amongst a cascade of commentators as to why American Pharoah's Belmont was such a megaperformance.


But that's why numbers came to prominence, because people's biases come into play and they tend to see what they want...especially when it comes to their favorite horses.


Certainly, amongst a narrow group of 3yos, this has been the case...when he's had the run of the race. Again, when he didn't have the run of the race (i.e., a perfect trip) he was nowhere near invincible or dominating.


The Derby was much better than the Preakness. At least in Kentucky, despite coming back down to earth, he showed some mettle when neither Firing Line nor Dortmund packed it in when he came to them. At Pimlico, he did exactly what you purport, that he simply runs horses off their feet...only he went so fast for the first 3/4s that he exhausted himself, as plain as day if you simply look at his come-home time in that race. Perhaps if a strong finisher was in there, you know, besides Tale of Verve, there might have been a different outcome. Too bad today's horsemen don't remember the plethora of Derby also-rans in the '80s and '90s that came back and reversed form at Pimlico.


Is your implication that American Pharoah was merely "prepping" for the Belmont in the Derby and Preakness?

Ridiculous.


This logic is silly that somehow American Pharoah can simply go fast early, keep going fast, go faster if challenged, and faster still for an indefinite distance. He proved in the Preakness that going fast early blunts his finishing power. He proved in the Derby that if hooked by a quality rival he is unable to simply "run away" from them. Certainly, if there was something else in the Belmont of the quality of a Rock Hard Ten or an Eddington that could have put pressure on American Pharoah in the middle of the race, we might have seen Frosted emulate Birdstone.

I like the allusion to Fusaichi Pegasus. If ever there was a horse that looked like he could simply do anything and "toy with rivals" and keep going indefinitely, getting stronger with each furlong, it was that horse.

And yet, as it turned out, as his race record suggests, he was nothing of the sort.


But not as impressive as Kentuckian if you extrapolate another 3 furlongs to that one's 7f performances.

Are you a lawyer, or a politician?

You seem like one.

And I mean that with the utmost sincerity and lack of complimentary meaning.

Talk about ridiculous.

I guess everything I say is always wrong if you want to spin things into your universe of absurdities.

By the way, did American Pharoah win the Triple Crown? I'm pretty sure if I make a case that he did, you'd find a way to twist my words and prove that he didn't.

What happened to you?

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

Are you a lawyer, or a politician?

You seem like one.

No. Why? You don't like being challenged on the things you post on here?

And I mean that with the utmost sincerity and lack of complimentary meaning.

On the contrary, I took it that you mean that with all uncomplimentary meaning.

Talk about ridiculous.

That's what we've been doing for the past 5 weeks.

I guess everything I say is always wrong if you want to spin things into your universe of absurdities.

My universe of absurdities is known as reality.

By the way, did American Pharoah win the Triple Crown? I'm pretty sure if I make a case that he did, you'd find a way to twist my words and prove that he didn't.

He did win the Triple Crown. That does not mean that your analysis of his performances in those races was ever correct or substantiated by concrete evidence or reasoning.

What happened to you?

I didn't drink the Monster-spiked Kool Aid.

[my miss storm cat]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

I'm pretty sure if I make a case that he did, you'd find a way to twist my words and prove that he didn't.

I've been meaning to ask you if there was some kind of announcement a while back - something about a game whereby the objective was to take YOUR words, twist them up and spin them around, spit them out again - only I missed the invite cause there has been quite a bit of this lately but really only with you.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

his speed figures, particularly beyers, have been comically and idiotically low.

I'm being facetious about him never winning again.

His BSF's are a function of math and science not creative license or subjective opinion. I agree as do some other prominent fig makers that the Beyer's methodology in routes seems to be declining in routes, I dont begin to understand why he is of opinion horses around the country save GP are getting slower. I dont know. I do know Andy Beyer knows WAY more about horses and racing then I do in fact probably more then everyone but a select few. He like all of us gets it wrong in a sport that is incredibly humbling, that hardily mitigates his brilliance as a capper and historian of the sport.

Do I think Coach Inge would have been competitive in the Belmont saturday? Not a chance but what do I know

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by freddymo

His BSF's are a function of math and science not creative license or subjective opinion. I agree as do some other prominent fig makers that the Beyer's methodology in routes seems to be declining in routes, I dont begin to understand why he is of opinion horses around the country save GP are getting slower. I dont know. I do know Andy Beyer knows WAY more about horses and racing then I do in fact probably more then everyone but a select few. He like all of us gets it wrong in a sport that is incredibly humbling, that hardily mitigates his brilliance as a capper and historian of the sport.

Do I think Coach Inge would have been competitive in the Belmont saturday? Not a chance but what do I know

I should clarify that from my perspective, his numbers seem a lot less tinkered with and/or biased with mid to low level racing. They are frequently fishy with the highest levels of racing.

I think they adjust these figures if they don't like what the numbers say.

You may be right about him knowing more than you, but keep in mind, he didn't really even invent the speed figures that are named for him. Also, it's often useful to question those that allegedly know more than you.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

I should clarify that from my perspective, his numbers seem a lot less tinkered with and/or biased with mid to low level racing. They are frequently fishy with the highest levels of racing.

I think they adjust these figures if they don't like what the numbers say.

You may be right about him knowing more than you, but keep in mind, he didn't really even invent the speed figures that are named for him. Also, it's often useful to question those that allegedly know more than you.

Look I was right about the horse and Doug And Beyer were dead wrong so what they both have a light years better opinion then all but a few. I have followed the sport religiously for 3.5 decades, he is a once in a generation type. I suspected it in the Rebel, others viewed the race as just a public workout. Not sure it means a darn bit what Andy Beyers speed fig was and I imagine Beyer knows that full well. Make no mistake his opinion and perspective is world class. The speed figure is completely irrelevant, save folks using it to measure the horses last race time wise vs. Coach Inge.

[freddymo]

Next race Haskell per Zayat this morning. That will be a blast