2015: American Pharoah becomes 12th Triple Crown winner

[NavalOrange]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

By the way, I keep seeing excuses for the lack of performance of AP's competition.

Rain, breaks, etc.

Has it occurred to anyone else that an exceptionally fast pace by an exceptionally fast horse with staying power simply just ran his opponents off their feet??

He probably deserves a pretty fast figure, but I'm sure they'll come back with something around 101-103ish.

No need to defend or debate AP. He has been impressive. Let him put the nayyyyyyysayers to rest in three weeks.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by NavalOrange

No need to defend or debate AP. He has been impressive. Let him put the nayyyyyyysayers to rest in three weeks.

No, it won't. People will call this the worst crop ever and that, of course, the Belmont fit his style perfectly and he had the perfect setup and trip.

I guarantee that if he loses, i shall get a mountain of grief from a certain couple of people, who, ironically, accuse me of things like chest thumping.

[Kasept]

6/6/15 (BEL): Belmont Stakes

American Pharoah (Baffert/V. Espinoza)
Keen Ice (Romans)
Mubtaahij (de Kock)
Tale of Verve (Stewart)
Madefromlucky (Pletcher)
Carpe Diem (Pletcher)
Materiality (Pletcher)
Frosted (McLaughlin)
Frammento (Zito)

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

No, it won't. People will call this the worst crop ever and that, of course, the Belmont fit his style perfectly and he had the perfect setup and trip.

I guarantee that if he loses, i shall get a mountain of grief from a certain couple of people, who, ironically, accuse me of things like chest thumping.

Well, you're half right, at least as far as my post-Belmont response. I can't remember ever going back to dig up ridiculous posts and quoting them when they've been proven wrong (or at least highly dubious), but I may make an exception in this case. That's how over-the-top I think the accolades have been for a horse that to me has shown no more quality than Funny Cide, Smarty Jones, Big Brown and California Chrome had at the same stages of their careers. (I won't put Silver Charm in that list because SC won his KD and Preakness against 2-3 other horses with BSF's in the 115 range, and was more impressive, IMO.)

But if AP wins the Belmont, I can't think of a scenario that would keep me from joining the worshippers, short of some truly calamitous event that wipes out most of the competition. I won't care if AP has the most perfect of perfect trips/setups--if he can get 1.5 miles on top of everything else he's done and beat these more-rested horsess, then he's truly worthy in my book.

In fact, it seems to me that the ones making excuses in advance are the very people who think AP is so spectacular. I keep reading about all the things that can go wrong in the Belmont from the AP-Is-The-2nd-Coming camp. It's almost like they don't believe the hype themselves.

--Dunbar

[GenuineRisk]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

In fact, it seems to me that the ones making excuses in advance are the very people who think AP is so spectacular. I keep reading about all the things that can go wrong in the Belmont from the AP-Is-The-2nd-Coming camp. It's almost like they don't believe the hype themselves.

--Dunbar

I don't think they're making excuses; I think the TC is harder to win now because there are so many more horses in each of the races. I'm not saying Secretariat wasn't one of the greatest to look through a bridle (and certainly not comparing AP to him in any way), but he only had 3 challengers in the Belmont. It's much easier for a great horse to run a great race when there's only 3 you have to beat. If Smarty or Chrome had only faced 3 other horses, would they have won? If the KD was capped at 14, would Afleet Alex be a TC winner? Obviously no one can know, but certainly their chances would have been much higher. But, as has been pointed out, Smarty Jones defeated more horses in losing the TC than any actual TC winner ever did, and I think that can't be discounted as a factor in why it's been impossible to win the past few decades.

[Kasept]

Make it 10 foes..

Per Privman, Conquest Curlinate (Casse/Bridgmohan) to supplement the $75k to run in Belmont..

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Make it 10 foes..

Per Privman, Conquest Curlinate (Casse/Bridgmohan) to supplement the $75k to run in Belmont..

not surprised, saw that possibility mentioned in a bloodhorse article.

[SundayStar]

Originally Posted by GenuineRisk

I don't think they're making excuses; I think the TC is harder to win now because there are so many more horses in each of the races. I'm not saying Secretariat wasn't one of the greatest to look through a bridle (and certainly not comparing AP to him in any way), but he only had 3 challengers in the Belmont. It's much easier for a great horse to run a great race when there's only 3 you have to beat. If Smarty or Chrome had only faced 3 other horses, would they have won? If the KD was capped at 14, would Afleet Alex be a TC winner? Obviously no one can know, but certainly their chances would have been much higher. But, as has been pointed out, Smarty Jones defeated more horses in losing the TC than any actual TC winner ever did, and I think that can't be discounted as a factor in why it's been impossible to win the past few decades.

some good points. it's tough; after winning two very coveted races in a two week time span, you have to come back and win a race that's very difficult tactically...going longer than ever before. i thought American Pharaoh would win the derby and preakness and then lose the belmont. i really hope i'm wrong. i want to see him win it.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

Well, you're half right, at least as far as my post-Belmont response. I can't remember ever going back to dig up ridiculous posts and quoting them when they've been proven wrong (or at least highly dubious), but I may make an exception in this case. That's how over-the-top I think the accolades have been for a horse that to me has shown no more quality than Funny Cide, Smarty Jones, Big Brown and California Chrome had at the same stages of their careers. (I won't put Silver Charm in that list because SC won his KD and Preakness against 2-3 other horses with BSF's in the 115 range, and was more impressive, IMO.)

But if AP wins the Belmont, I can't think of a scenario that would keep me from joining the worshippers, short of some truly calamitous event that wipes out most of the competition. I won't care if AP has the most perfect of perfect trips/setups--if he can get 1.5 miles on top of everything else he's done and beat these more-rested horsess, then he's truly worthy in my book.

In fact, it seems to me that the ones making excuses in advance are the very people who think AP is so spectacular. I keep reading about all the things that can go wrong in the Belmont from the AP-Is-The-2nd-Coming camp. It's almost like they don't believe the hype themselves.

--Dunbar

This is really good.

[Rudeboyelvis]

With the exception of Frosted, Everyone else in here thus far is a complete toss to beat AP. Who has Materiality beaten, exactly, to warrant such expectation?


He beat nothing in the Islamorada, and outlasted a horse that quit in the Derby.

Sign me up to take that at 7/2

Again, not a particular fan of the horse, but the irrational exuberance of his supposed and inevitable failure in 3 weeks because he has yet to meet some imagined criteria in getting here is funny.

[knickslions2]

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis

With the exception of Frosted, Everyone else in here thus far is a complete toss to beat AP. Who has Materiality beaten, exactly, to warrant such expectation?


He beat nothing in the Islamorada, and outlasted a horse that quit in the Derby.

Sign me up to take that at 7/2

Again, not a particular fan of the horse, but the irrational exuberance of his supposed and inevitable failure in 3 weeks because he has yet to meet some imagined criteria in getting here is funny.

Still nobody targeted for the Belmont fast enough to push or challenge AP for the lead. Maybe I'm missing something? Somebody will try but not sure how that will go. Lots can change in three weeks but can't wait to see Baffert hoist that trophy!!

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis

With the exception of Frosted, Everyone else in here thus far is a complete toss to beat AP. Who has Materiality beaten, exactly, to warrant such expectation?

Why is Frosted a contender in the Belmont, but not Materiality?

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

Why is Frosted a contender in the Belmont, but not Materiality?

Not sure why either are contenders? Frosted ran a better derby then Materialty IMO. I think both should be 15 to 20 to 1 to offer value and they will both be way under that price. Does Frosted have more then a 1 in 10 or 12 chance to beat AP? I dont see it

[Rudeboyelvis]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

Why is Frosted a contender in the Belmont, but not Materiality?

Because Frosted may have the slightest look as an outside longshot from a pace perspective, where Materiality will be the typical over-hyped, over-bet TAP entry that has already proven he's not capable of rating.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis

With the exception of Frosted, Everyone else in here thus far is a complete toss to beat AP. Who has Materiality beaten, exactly, to warrant such expectation?


He beat nothing in the Islamorada, and outlasted a horse that quit in the Derby.

Sign me up to take that at 7/2

Again, not a particular fan of the horse, but the irrational exuberance of his supposed and inevitable failure in 3 weeks because he has yet to meet some imagined criteria in getting here is funny.

People look for the most logical horse because its been an impossible task to conquer and so it makes sense to bet anyone but the favorite, which frankly has been a good strategy for 40 years. Just not this year.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by freddymo

People look for the most logical horse because its been an impossible task to conquer and so it makes sense to bet anyone but the favorite, which frankly has been a good strategy for 40 years. Just not this year.

Guess we will know in a few weeks...
I've gotten my hopes up a few times over the years since affirmed. Been wrong every time...and then there's the particular memory of a certain charcoal grey horse who was one hell of a horse...and failed.
I'll believe it when/if it happens, but not one moment before.
If that makes me a hater, than I question who is setting the bar...

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis

With the exception of Frosted, Everyone else in here thus far is a complete toss to beat AP. Who has Materiality beaten, exactly, to warrant such expectation?


He beat nothing in the Islamorada, and outlasted a horse that quit in the Derby.

Sign me up to take that at 7/2

Again, not a particular fan of the horse, but the irrational exuberance of his supposed and inevitable failure in 3 weeks because he has yet to meet some imagined criteria in getting here is funny.

Not nearly as funny as the feigned outrage directed at those who may have even the mildest of criticisms of the horse.

This was also an epic fail in the application of the "Who did he beat?" theory considering Materiality beat a horse who twice handled Frosted. Unless you hold Tencendur and El Kabeir in extremely high regard.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

This is really good.

No, it's really not.

It's completely backwards.

You should try your hand at stand up comedy.

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

No, it's really not.

It's completely backwards.

You should try your hand at stand up comedy.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

I'll explain.

The AP detractors are the ones throwing around excuses as to why AP keeps winning, often accusing his fans of doing just that as to why he might lose the Belmont.

The reality is that the detractors keep reaching for more and new absurdities, often contradicting their own earlier absurdities.

Heck, I've been accused of various things ranging from chest thumping, claiming credit for his success and even being somewhat the zealot.

The funny thing with that one is that, as we've discussed on Facebook, I'm not even convinced that AP is the best horse in this crop.