Boring Derby??

[3kings]

Originally Posted by jms62

How can you say that. Stanford doesn't scratch and we are looking at a different pace scenario not just which Baffert would engage Firing Line.

The fractions last year were moderate and they were again this year. It's a small sample size but I think it will be more the norm than in the past. It is not a sure thing than horses like Stanford will break well and frankly be good enough to influence the race like pure speed horses of the past. The days off accomplished pure sprinters like Trinniberg making it to the Derby are gone and so is the guarantee of a pace melt down.

[MaTH716]

Originally Posted by 3kings

The fractions last year were moderate and they were again this year. It's a small sample size but I think it will be more the norm than in the past. It is not a sure thing than horses like Stanford will break well and frankly be good enough to influence the race like pure speed horses of the past. The days off accomplished pure sprinters like Trinniberg making it to the Derby are gone and so is the guarantee of a pace melt down.

I think you're always going to get one of those rabbits that freak and get into the race, the question is whether they go or even break well enough to go. Even with the Stanford scratch, I figured on a couple of other horses going.
I thought Ocho was going to have to go from the rail, Materiality broke poorly and I'm guessing it was a good time to experiment and try to rate with Mr. Z .

It's still its gonna be a crapshoot. There is so much racing luck needed in a 20 horse field. I just think in this years case, the 3 best horses had clean trips.

[jms62]

Originally Posted by 3kings

The fractions last year were moderate and they were again this year. It's a small sample size but I think it will be more the norm than in the past. It is not a sure thing than horses like Stanford will break well and frankly be good enough to influence the race like pure speed horses of the past. The days off accomplished pure sprinters like Trinniberg making it to the Derby are gone and so is the guarantee of a pace melt down.

Not sure I agree about never seeing a pace meltdown but your point is certainly valid. We won't see any horses in the Derby off of 7 Furlong Prep wins.

[ElPrado]

We are going to see a bunch of runners with 8 and 9 furlong prep wins, though. All the trainers will do now is look around for the race with the fewest quality horses left without a top colt. 8 and 9 furlong preps everywhere from New York to Idaho, throwing money at all the semi good colts they can find.
Cherry Pick City.
It will be just like this year. 3 decent colts and 17 that finish starting about 5 lengths back.
Pletcher invented the game. You buy half the decent colts in a 2 year old sale. Place them with 20 owners with money coming out of their ears. Win them all kinds of money with horses bred to win at 2. Run them into the ground placing them at Gulfstream, Keeneland, Fair Grounds, somewhere in Texas, Tampa, outer Arkansas, wherever else he can put them where he doesn't run them against each other. Eventually you have winnowed the list to 2 or 3 maybe's. Enter everything still standing in the Derby. Tell the owners they have to go, they have points! Fill the whole card up with the herd that hasn't made the grade.
Oh boy! Carpe Diem!
Oh boy! Materiality!
He won't get many Derby winners, but he sure will rake in the money in the preps. I've been watching him for years.
Ever talk to him at the track? I have.
The first time he is fawning all over you. By the end of the race where he met you, he's checked on line. If you have less than a few million he makes sure he stays as far away as he can get. And it's experience talking.

[Port Conway Lane]

The pacesetters in most of the derbys I recall never were horses exiting a sprint. They were horses who earned their way in through 1 1/8 mile major preps.One could look back and point out the pacesetter was ultimately a better sprinter during his career.
The current point system favors good recent form in major preps and is not favorable to 2YO's hanging on to inflated purses in sprints or one turn miles. Historically very few of these even enter the gate unless they prove themselves as a 3YO in a major prep. Inevitably there will be plenty of pace meltdown scenario's in the future, it just hasn't happened the last two. Anyway Trinniberg may have pressed the pace but there was no melt down.