Quote:
Originally Posted by richard burch
Correct! The derby seems to be run differently than most races. But with Dortmund and Pharaoh liking the front you know all it takes is one other cheap speed horse to ruin the fav's day. There are several in here capable of doing that. The last 1/8 is the determining factor.
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The manner in which Baffert set up Dortmund's final work is very important to consider. I don't know how he normally works, but if this is unique then to me he gave Dortmund a refresher on how to run down a horse because he already knows he's sending AP hard and early, trying to bottom them out a la Bodemeister. I don't think this is great for Dortmund because he generally pulls himself up towards the lead after "rating" for a bit. Trying to do this in traffic with his frame just won't result in a positive outcome. I don't believe that AP can blaze away up front and hold on for the final eighth either.
04-29-2015, 01:16 AM
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