3/27-29 (CD): Kentucky Derby Future Wager -- Pool 4

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by cakes44

Well, obviously. But what I'm saying is that just about any of the horses that might be under the radar or whatever are running this weekend, so you're not likely to make any money.

What I took issue with was this blanket statement:

Originally Posted by cakes44

There is zero value anywhere.

The Future Wager is parimutual, so there's every chance that there will be overbet and underbet horses. Saying now that there "is zero value anywhere" in the Future Wager is like saying today that there will be no value in the 8th races at Santa Anita or Gulfstream on Sunday.

--Dunbar

[cakes44]

Yes I was overstating a bit. However, your analogy is somewhat off. At least all of the horses in the races at GP and SA are actually running in the races you mentioned.

[saratogadew]

Mr. Z for a hundred please.

[robfla]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

What I took issue with was this blanket statement:


The Future Wager is parimutual, so there's every chance that there will be overbet and underbet horses. Saying now that there "is zero value anywhere" in the Future Wager is like saying today that there will be no value in the 8th races at Santa Anita or Gulfstream on Sunday.

--Dunbar

this would be true, IF every listed horse were to make the gate. If you factor that in to the equation, there really are no good bets in this pool. The odds difference makes it worth waiting for Derby day in case your horse does not run.

[Kasept]

Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool 4 FINAL ODDS

(No. Horse Trainer P1 P2 P3 P4)

1. American Pharoah (B.Baffert) 12-1/10-1/8-1 5-1
2. Ami’s Flatter (J.Carroll) 3-5(f)/5-2(f)/4-1(f) 91-1
3. Bold Conquest (S.Asmussen) 3-5(f)/5-2(f)/4-1(f) 91-1
4. Bolo (C.Gaines) 3-5(f)/5-2(f)/34-1 28-1
5. Carpe Diem (T.Pletcher) 15-1/12-1/10-1 10-1
6. Daredevil (T.Pletcher) 48-1/40-1/43-1 39-1

7. Dortmund (B.Baffert) 9-1/10-1/9-1 6-1
8. Dubai Sky (W.Mott) 3-5(f)/5-2(f)/4-1(f) 23-1
9. El Kabeir (J.Terranova) 74-1/39-1/47-1 28-1
10. Far From Over (T.Pletcher) 3-5(f)/5-2(f)/13-1 14-1
11. Far Right (R.Moquett) 3-5(f)/48-1/30-1 39-1
12. Firing Line (S.Callaghan) 3-5(f)/35-1/29-1 13-1

13. Frosted (K.McLaughlin) 38-1/31-1/4-1(f) 40-1
14. International Star (M.Maker) 3-5(f)/44-1/22-1 17-1
15. Itsaknockout (T.Pletcher) 3-5(f)/30-1/30-1 53-1
16. Keen Ice (D.Romans) 3-5(f)/5-2(f)/27-1 69-1
17. Madefromlucky (T.Pletcher) 3-5(f)/5-2(f)/4-1(f) 92-1
18. Materiality (T.Pletcher) 3-5(f)/5-2(f)/4-1(f) 12-1

19. Mr. Z (W.Lukas) 47-1/ 44-1/44-1 70-1
20. Mubtaahij (M.deKock) 3-5(f)/5-2(f)/4-1(f) 8-1
21. Prospect Park (C.Sise) 3/5(f)/35-1/26-1 18-1
22. Upstart (R.Violette) 53-1/12-1/15-1 18-1
23. War Story (T.Amoss) 3-5(f)/5-2(f)/30-1 41-1
24. Field (all others) (n/a) 3-5/5-2/4-1 11-1

(f) – denotes field entry.

Win pool: $273,017
Exacta pool: $144,456
Total: $417,673
Four-pool aggregate: $1,523,175

[Fulla Sheets]

Originally Posted by Kasept

1. American Pharoah (B.Baffert) 12-1/10-1/8-1 5-1

5. Carpe Diem (T.Pletcher) 15-1/12-1/10-1 10-1

7. Dortmund (B.Baffert) 9-1/10-1/9-1 6-1

10. Far From Over (T.Pletcher) 3-5(f)/5-2(f)/13-1 14-1

12. Firing Line (S.Callaghan) 3-5(f)/35-1/29-1 13-1

18. Materiality (T.Pletcher) 3-5(f)/5-2(f)/4-1(f) 12-1

Top 6 American horses for the derby: 3 trained by Pletcher, 2 trained by Baffert, and 1 owned by a former Baffert owner.

No problem here

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by Fulla Sheets

Top 6 American horses for the derby: 3 trained by Pletcher, 2 trained by Baffert, and 1 owned by a former Baffert owner.

No problem here

Arnold Zetcher (Firing Line) isn't a former Baffert owner, he's a current Baffert owner. He's had horses with Callaghan for a long time.

Those other 5 horses do represent 5 different owners that are well established with their respective trainers in Zayat, Shah, WinStar, Let's Go and Steve Marshall (Black Rock). And to be fair, you're conveniently leaving out the next 3 choices in Upstart (18-1), Int'l Star (18-1) and Prospect Park (17-1), trained/owned by veteran horseman connections in Violette/Evans, Maker/Ramsey and Sise/Wygod.

No one is a bigger critic of the concentration of talent in too few hands, but bigger outfits are going to put potential Classic horses (read stallion prospects) in the hands of Pletcher and Baffert the same way they were being put in the hands of Zito and Lukas.

[Fulla Sheets]

The industry is just top heavy. The best horses are going to go to the owners with the deepest pockets, who will give those horses to the trainers with the highest win percentages. Its just the way it is, but it cant be good.

Zetcher choosing to give Firing Line to Callaghan rather than Baffert should be talked about. Good for him.

[Benny]

http://www.forbes.com/sites/teresage...-the-favorite/

[parsixfarms]

Originally Posted by Kasept

No one is a bigger critic of the concentration of talent in too few hands, but bigger outfits are going to put potential Classic horses (read stallion prospects) in the hands of Pletcher and Baffert the same way they were being put in the hands of Zito and Lukas.

Why? In the past 15 years, Pletcher and Baffert have each won one Derby, despite being annually stocked with the priciest, best-bred talent on their respective coasts. The run of recent Derby winners belies the "need" to put potential Classic horses solely in their hands and has proven that a good horse can thrive when put in the hands of other capable trainers. (The Breeders' Cup annually reinforces the notion as well.)

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by parsixfarms

Why? In the past 15 years, Pletcher and Baffert have each won one Derby, despite being annually stocked with the priciest, best-bred talent on their respective coasts. The run of recent Derby winners belies the "need" to put potential Classic horses solely in their hands and has proven that a good horse can thrive when put in the hands of other capable trainers. (The Breeders' Cup annually reinforces the notion as well.)

No argument from me. I'd like to see a wider spread of talent as much as you do. The 'why' part of the concentration gets back to the 'stallion prospect' aspect. And we have to acknowledge in this discussion that the top barns in question do 'make' stallions in the TC exercise process.