Cozmic One

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

His debut was at Gulfstream ( I think Warrior's Reward won it at a HUGE price ). I feel like he opened at 1:5. I was at Horsemens Park in Omaha.

He didn't debut at Parx.

When a horse scratches, racereplays will have the race listed but the finish position is left blank. They show his finish position as blank in that race on Jan. 31, 2009. So I assumed he scratched that day and that his debut was the next listed race where it shows he finished 2nd on March 7. But as you said, I now see that he did in fact run in that race on Jan. 31 that Warrior's Reward won at 30-1. I have no idea why racereplays showed Nicanor's finish position as blank when he did in fact run in that race.
Anyway, I guess he was 4-1 on the morning line and got hammered early but ended up going off at 5-2.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

When a horse scratches, racereplays will have the race listed but the finish position is left blank. They show his finish position as blank in that race on Jan. 31, 2009. So I assumed he scratched that day and that his debut was the next listed race where it shows he finished 2nd on March 7. But as you said, I now see that he did in fact run in that race on Jan. 31 that Warrior's Reward won at 30-1. I have no idea why racereplays showed Nicanor's finish position as blank when he did in fact run in that race.
Anyway, I guess he was 4-1 on the morning line and got hammered early but ended up going off at 5-2.

It's OK that you were wrong. Most of us, probably even you ( and definitely me ), are wrong ALL the time.

[declansharbor]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

It's OK that you were wrong. Most of us, probably even you ( and definitely me ), are wrong ALL the time.

I got the sense that his main objective was to discredit my "bet-against" assertion.

Pup's been having a rough go on this board lately lol

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by declansharbor

I got the sense that his main objective was to discredit my "bet-against" assertion.

Pup's been having a rough go on this board lately lol

I wasn't trying to discredit your bet against assertion. I was just curious to see what the horse went off at that day. Then when I looked at racereplays and thought he was only 5-1 and ran 2nd, I couldn't figure out how that was a great bet against. But you were right, he was a relatively low price (5-2).

Do I think it is a good angle to bet against half or full brothers to great horses? Do I think it's a good angle to bet against horses out of great mares? It just depends. If I have info that the horse is no good and the horse is getting bet heavily, then the answer is yes. But if I have no info, then I don't think it's a great angle. If a horse is slightly overbet, that's not going to be enough to give you an edge that will overcome the 16% vig. If a horse that should be 3-1 is 2-1, I'm not going to unload on the rest of the field. When Zenyatta's sister (Eblouissnate) made her debut, was she a great bet against? I don't know. I would say probably not. She ended up going off at 7-5 and she won. Was she overbet? She was probably slightly overbet but she was working well and she had more than one sibling that was a grade I winner. In addition, I know Zenyatta won first time out. I can't remember whether Balance (her other sister) won first time out.

FTS at SA race 5 Rutile with a dozen works wins from off the pace and closed fast to win at 21-1. The man knows what he is doing by being patient.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by helicopter11

FTS at SA race 5 Rutile with a dozen works wins from off the pace and closed fast to win at 21-1. The man knows what he is doing by being patient.

Wow, that was a case where the bettors did not give the pedigree enough credit. Rutile is a half-sister to both Giacomo and Tiago. Based on that alone you would have thought she would have gotten a little more play. Being a half to two grade I winners including a Kentucky Derby winner should at least garner a little bit of consideration.

[blackthroatedwind]

The only thing better than a redboard is two redboards.

[Alabama Stakes]

Chad Ocho-cinco comes to mind. what's he up to ?

[Arletta]

Starts his career Friday at Santa Anita.