Good Lord another pletcher freak

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by boldruler

Dream all you want but these 2yr olds that start this early never win the derby. Young horses are pressed way too early not to mention these are 5.5F races. Horses that win these races usually have excellent speed but that doesn't necessarily win at the 10F distance.

I'm not sure if it is true that no horse has won the derby with such an early start. I'd like to see the data on that. I'll grant you this, many of the horses that win often and early at two are speedy precocious types that end up with distance limitations. But that doesn't mean that it's impossible to start in June and win in May.

There was a good thread on ESPN a few months back where people offered what appeared to be credible data that suggested that lots of gallops were not the answer and that actual racing early in the 2YO season was more beneficial for bone and structure development and would reduce the likehood of injury. Of course over-racing would be problematic.

Keep this in perspective also, not many horses win the derby period, so it's easy to come up with statistics that are not significant.

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

I'm not sure if it is true that no horse has won the derby with such an early start. I'd like to see the data on that. I'll grant you this, many of the horses that win often and early at two are speedy precocious types that end up with distance limitations. But that doesn't mean that it's impossible to start in June and win in May.

There was a good thread on ESPN a few months back where people offered what appeared to be credible data that suggested that lots of gallops were not the answer and that actual racing early in the 2YO season was more beneficial for bone and structure development and would reduce the likehood of injury. Of course over-racing would be problematic.

Keep this in perspective also, not many horses win the derby period, so it's easy to come up with statistics that are not significant.

Horse that win in June are winning at 5F races. It is completely useless for a horse that needs to stretch out to 10F. All you get now are speed freaks that everyone goes crazy over but that have zero chance of winning the derby.

[SentToStud]

Originally Posted by boldruler

Horse that win in June are winning at 5F races. It is completely useless for a horse that needs to stretch out to 10F. All you get now are speed freaks that everyone goes crazy over but that have zero chance of winning the derby.

I don't follow your point here. Circular Quay was obviously ready to run to have performed as he did off just two very modest 1/2 mile works. There will be 20-30 2yo MSW sprints run at major tracks this week and it will be hard to find another colt or filly that ran or will run as well as this one did. To me that's the story. Not whether he's going to win a race that is 11 months away. I also disagree that a nice sprint win is a useless gauge for eventually running longer distances. After all, you have to start somewhere. I think he's a very nice colt who ran a super debut off modest works. I'm just glad I saw the race.

Originally Posted by SentToStud

I don't follow your point here. Circular Quay was obviously ready to run to have performed as he did off just two very modest 1/2 mile works. There will be 20-30 2yo MSW sprints run at major tracks this week and it will be hard to find another colt or filly that ran or will run as well as this one did. To me that's the story. Not whether he's going to win a race that is 11 months away. I also disagree that a nice sprint win is a useless gauge for eventually running longer distances. After all, you have to start somewhere. I think he's a very nice colt who ran a super debut off modest works. I'm just glad I saw the race.

Stud i was gonna post something to that effect but your post covered everything I was going to say. I love the sport, and I really appreciate talent and exciting debuts like these even when i don't have a quarter on the race. Isn't that why we love this game? I guess I don't understand the people who love to knock everything. I mean Ruler you can have any opinion you want, but you are bashing us for liking the way this horse ran and talking about things far off when you are the guy telling us about Showing Up in the Travers?

[disappearingdan_akaplaya]

cobalt recently@hollywood still stands out as the most impressive debut to me so far this year, mike any1 else have any idea what his number and beyer were? really difficult for me to get full blown excited about a 3yo season and derby run for a current 2yo, in this day and age unfortunately alotta the babies cant maintain the soundness from now through the 3yo TC campaign

Originally Posted by disappearingdan_akaplaya

cobalt recently@hollywood still stands out as the most impressive debut to me so far this year, mike any1 else have any idea what his number and beyer were? really difficult for me to get full blown excited about a 3yo season and derby run for a current 2yo, in this day and age unfortunately alotta the babies cant maintain the soundness from now through the 3yo TC campaign

Playa Cobalt was very good, but you have to watch the CD 2nd on replay. I didn't bet the race and was just watching it but it shocked me. Horse was in back of the pack and made a move with no urging, didn't switch leads until late and when he did it was breathtaking. Last 3/16ths he got in 17 or a shade under which is just crazy. He went 5 1/2 in 1:03:3 and whats exciting about him is that he doesnt look like one of those speed bred and speed crazy horses who dont ever go on to do anything later in the year. Thunder Gulchs arent usually that fast in their 2yo races and his mom Circle Of Life was 3rd in the Ashland going two turns so he should only get better.
I don't EVER get excited about two year olds in June or July but this one's race had to be seen to be believed.

[disappearingdan_akaplaya]

just watched it on race replays and youre absolutely right mike very impressive, started to pick up steam right about where the track kitchen is there on the CD backside(cool view to watch the races from and see em comin head on at ya down the backstretch) and just kept rollin

Originally Posted by oracle80

Stud i was gonna post something to that effect but your post covered everything I was going to say. I love the sport, and I really appreciate talent and exciting debuts like these even when i don't have a quarter on the race. Isn't that why we love this game? I guess I don't understand the people who love to knock everything. I mean Ruler you can have any opinion you want, but you are bashing us for liking the way this horse ran and talking about things far off when you are the guy telling us about Showing Up in the Travers?

Big difference between a proven race horse and a maiden winner. I don't think Showing Up can beat Bernardini but I just hope he does because I get to see him at Belmont. I just watched the replay and the horse was very impressive and is a Thunder Gulch, but Tabor has these great 2yr ollds all the time. I usually wait until the Hopeful before I go declaring any 2yr old a potential derby horse.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by boldruler

Horse that win in June are winning at 5F races. It is completely useless for a horse that needs to stretch out to 10F. All you get now are speed freaks that everyone goes crazy over but that have zero chance of winning the derby.

What would you recommend? Gallops until may then debut at 10F?
You have to get the horses up to racing speed in order to have something to build on. And you can't just start them out racing at a mile or more, you have to build up to it.

Also, every horse isn't cut out for the derby but that doesn't mean they can't make a nice run at the 2yo races in the summer and fall.

[sumitas]

You don't see derby contenders until later in their 2 yr old season.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by sumitas

You don't see derby contenders until later in their 2 yr old season.

Usually not. I just don't think it is a given that if a horse starts in June he cannot win the derby.

[luvthesales]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

Usually not. I just don't think it is a given that if a horse starts in June he cannot win the derby.

Not only that, they used to start in March. Or even earlier, in some cases. They don't train them like they used to, which I think is unfortunate.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by boldruler

Horse that win in June are winning at 5F races. It is completely useless for a horse that needs to stretch out to 10F. All you get now are speed freaks that everyone goes crazy over but that have zero chance of winning the derby.

Are you sure about that? I have listed below the number of derby winners that debuted in each month for the past fourteen years.

June 3
July 2
August 1
Sept 3
Oct 3
Nov 1
Dec 1

As it turns out June is a pretty popular month to debut a future derby winner.
Also all of the June starts were at 5 furlongs so that distance would appear to be quite useful in getting a horse to 10F. This is not a huge amount of data but it is enough to show how far off base your comment was.

[kentuckyrosesinmay]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

Are you sure about that? I have listed below the number of derby winners that debuted in each month for the past fourteen years.

June 3
July 2
August 1
Sept 3
Oct 3
Nov 1
Dec 1

As it turns out June is a pretty popular month to debut a future derby winner.
Also all of the June starts were at 5 furlongs so that distance would appear to be quite useful in getting a horse to 10F. This is not a huge amount of data but it is enough to show how far off base your comment was.

Thanks for the stats. I didn't know that. Very interesting...

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

Are you sure about that? I have listed below the number of derby winners that debuted in each month for the past fourteen years.

June 3
July 2
August 1
Sept 3
Oct 3
Nov 1
Dec 1

As it turns out June is a pretty popular month to debut a future derby winner.
Also all of the June starts were at 5 furlongs so that distance would appear to be quite useful in getting a horse to 10F. This is not a huge amount of data but it is enough to show how far off base your comment was.

Have to read the entire thread but have to agree that horses winning now mean nothing. They are just too fragile now and the odds are clearly in favor of horses that debut in the late summer/fall.

[kentuckyrosesinmay]

Originally Posted by Hoisttheflag

Have to read the entire thread but have to agree that horses winning now mean nothing. They are just too fragile now and the odds are clearly in favor of horses that debut in the late summer/fall.

A whole lot of very good three year olds have come out of the Sanford...

Originally Posted by kentuckyrosesinmay

A whole lot of very good three year olds have come out of the Sanford...

It sounds like they are talking about this horse that won today and the odds are against him even making the derby. Some really nice horses to come out of those 2yr old stake races at Saratoga but can't recall any ever winning the derby. Afleet Alex did win the Hopeful, but not the derby.

I think these two year olds should just race when they are ready, but should have some time between races. You have to remember though that the key is to just give them foundation and they need races to get it. I have always thought 3 races as a 2yr old and 3 races as a 3yr old prior to the derby are what they need.

[kentuckyrosesinmay]

Originally Posted by Hoisttheflag

It sounds like they are talking about this horse that won today and the odds are against him even making the derby. Some really nice horses to come out of those 2yr old stake races at Saratoga but can't recall any ever winning the derby. Afleet Alex did win the Hopeful, but not the derby.

I think these two year olds should just race when they are ready, but should have some time between races. You have to remember though that the key is to just give them foundation and they need races to get it. I have always thought 3 races as a 2yr old and 3 races as a 3yr old prior to the derby are what they need.

The odds are against every two year old making it to the Derby. So is the nature of the game.

I don't really care that Afleet Alex didn't win the Derby. He won two of the three legs, and was only a length short in the Derby. I was more so making a point to earlier threads than to yours anyway. Someone said that horses that started early couldn't go 10 furlongs, and Afleet Alex definitely proved that wrong. He was the first horse I thought of off the top of my head.

You do make some really good points in your posts.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by Hoisttheflag

Have to read the entire thread but have to agree that horses winning now mean nothing. They are just too fragile now and the odds are clearly in favor of horses that debut in the late summer/fall.

I was just pointing out that debuting in June at five furlongs has led to a derby winner in 3 of the last 14 years. So it would appear that sometimes races in June do have Derby implications and these horses are not too fragile.

Earlier in the thread people implied that it was ridiculous to think about the derby in June because Derby winners never debut so early. It does happen.

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

I was just pointing out that debuting in June at five furlongs has led to a derby winner in 3 of the last 14 years. So it would appear that sometimes races in June do have Derby implications and these horses are not too fragile.

Earlier in the thread people implied that it was ridiculous to think about the derby in June because Derby winners never debut so early. It does happen.

I read that and disagree too, but I think these 2yr old races in June often mean nothing because speed is just so important in them. The other problem with them in there is no way of really determining what they are beating. I don't think you can tell anything from a 2yr old other than they may be good horses. These horses grow so much over the winter and some even in the 6-8 weeks before the derby that they are often completely different animals. The sport is so odd now with people paying 16 million for Forestry colts that they are making the breed into a bunch of animals that are designed to run real quick early and break down. These horses that start this soon seem to have really short 3yr old careers.