The Rail at Aqueduct

[blackthroatedwind]

First of all, I don't think you or anyone is crazy to play other tracks, and I am probably lazy and foolish not to simply move my play to another curcuit. I do not know the reasons, though obviously I have suspicions, but I have been struggling to win in NY for quite a while. I am becoming resigned to the idea that it has to be easier somewhere else.

I think you are right, that save Saratoga, where the competition and attention is fierce, the races in NY often lack the competitiveness they often have on paper. Whatever the reasons it makes things difficult. And now it's wintertime, and CC Lopez is unfortunately back, so I basically have stopped playing. I bet a few dollars in the 6th today ( won pennies ) and lost most of that on Tasteyville in the 8th. I have neither the inclination to do the work nor the interest in betting my money.

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

First of all, I don't think you or anyone is crazy to play other tracks, and I am probably lazy and foolish not to simply move my play to another curcuit. I do not know the reasons, though obviously I have suspicions, but I have been struggling to win in NY for quite a while. I am becoming resigned to the idea that it has to be easier somewhere else.

I think you are right, that save Saratoga, where the competition and attention is fierce, the races in NY often lack the competitiveness they often have on paper. Whatever the reasons it makes things difficult. And now it's wintertime, and CC Lopez is unfortunately back, so I basically have stopped playing. I bet a few dollars in the 6th today ( won pennies ) and lost most of that on Tasteyville in the 8th. I have neither the inclination to do the work nor the interest in betting my money.

I've been saying the same thing for quite some time. And I agree that other than Saratoga or big days at Bel and Aqu, Ny has become so very hard to win at.
Everyone blames juicing but thats not what i am seeing. I am seeing exotic payout after exotic payout that makes absolutely no sense.
I do understand why that race with the firsters paid so little, Jerkens horse was buried in gimmicks, and it was a tough race and some folks went all all underneath.
But day after day its underlaid payouts that make no sense. The icing on the cake this weekend was Italian Saint actually going off as the FAVORITE !!! and winning for fun. I laughed out loud at that one.
Value is hard to find, and I like to play races at a track where they "flow" the way they used to everyplace.
I cant take the non-contested pace races and whats worse, they never seem to miss in NY with these ****ing overbet favorites that drive players here up the wall. I mean, so many times you see horses bet WAY down below where they should be, so you play against them as a good player is supposed to do, and they just waltz home. Its supposed to even out but it seemingly never does.

[blackthroatedwind]

I'm not getting into the " juice " discussion...because I can't.

I found the feature race on Saturday to be highly questionable. There was a Barclay Tagg horse, Stormy Kiss maybe, who on paper was clear speed and pretty much a cinch. The second choice was trained by Gary Contessa, Magnolia Jackson, a horse of minor ability who while she could win, and deserved to be second choice, was no major threat to the favorite on paper. Now the betting opens, and Magnolia Jackson opens 1/9, and the obvious favorite is somewhere around 2:1. While Magnolia drifts to 2:5 a few minutes before post she still remarkably is ultimately favored while both horses are even money. The race didn't even need to be run.

Tagg's horse got the lead, but it was apparent to anyone watching that Magnolia Jackson, who was stalking, was going to eat her up at will. And she did, with the longest shot on the board sucking up for second. Now, I don't think anything went on with Magnolia Jackson, and her abhorant 75 Beyer fig backs that up, but how the hell did EVERYONE know that the Tagg horse was finished?

I cannot make my decisions based on the board but if I am finding situations like the one described above I simply cannot bet.

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I'm not getting into the " juice " discussion...because I can't.

I found the feature race on Saturday to be highly questionable. There was a Barclay Tagg horse, Stormy Kiss maybe, who on paper was clear speed and pretty much a cinch. The second choice was trained by Gary Contessa, Magnolia Jackson, a horse of minor ability who while she could win, and deserved to be second choice, was no major threat to the favorite on paper. Now the betting opens, and Magnolia Jackson opens 1/9, and the obvious favorite is somewhere around 2:1. While Magnolia drifts to 2:5 a few minutes before post she still remarkably is ultimately favored while both horses are even money. The race didn't even need to be run.

Tagg's horse got the lead, but it was apparent to anyone watching that Magnolia Jackson, who was stalking, was going to eat her up at will. And she did, with the longest shot on the board sucking up for second. Now, I don't think anything went on with Magnolia Jackson, and her abhorant 75 Beyer fig backs that up, but how the hell did EVERYONE know that the Tagg horse was finished?


I cannot make my decisions based on the board but if I am finding situations like the one described above I simply cannot bet.

How do you think Lans felt? Cozykaylee had lost to Magnolia last out at the Meadowlands only because she got completely left at the gate. Must have kicked something walking over and was off and had to be scratched.
I truly feel she could have won that race very easily. At least Johnny would have tried.
Then of course there was Flying with Ryan last week who went off at only 5-1 who I would have made 25-1 at least in my own mind. Never showed speed in his life, or any dirt ability. raffie could beat him to the 1/4 running backwards and hes drawn inside. gets grabbed back to 4th and Ryan cruises.
Sorry, but thats not a game I wanna play.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I'm not getting into the " juice " discussion...because I can't.

I found the feature race on Saturday to be highly questionable. There was a Barclay Tagg horse, Stormy Kiss maybe, who on paper was clear speed and pretty much a cinch. The second choice was trained by Gary Contessa, Magnolia Jackson, a horse of minor ability who while she could win, and deserved to be second choice, was no major threat to the favorite on paper. Now the betting opens, and Magnolia Jackson opens 1/9, and the obvious favorite is somewhere around 2:1. While Magnolia drifts to 2:5 a few minutes before post she still remarkably is ultimately favored while both horses are even money. The race didn't even need to be run.

The early action might have alot to do with MJ's inner track record, it was really good......

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Scav

The early action might have alot to do with MJ's inner track record, it was really good......

I understand what you're saying but those inner track races were no better than a number of main track races and she simply could not beat Tagg on paper. There was no way she should have been favored over Tagg and I have discussed this with a number of sane people I know and every one of them had similar feelings.

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I understand what you're saying but those inner track races were no better than a number of main track races and she simply could not beat Tagg on paper. There was no way she should have been favored over Tagg and I have discussed this with a number of sane people I know and every one of them had similar feelings.

I posted the same thing on the selections thread before the race. I said there was no way she could outsprint Stormy Kiss and win the race. In her prior effort at the meadowlands on a highly speed favoring track, she borke sharp while her only rival was acting up in the gate and got left.
I saw her as no shot horse who would get bet.
1-9? I didn't get it at the time and I still don't get it now.
Anyone wanna explain how Italian Saint could go off the chalk on Sunday?
I didn't play the race and didn't watch the tote board either, but when I looked at the chart my first reaction was shock that she had won by 5 lengths. My next reaction when I saw that she was favored was laughter.
Too many of these races lately, way too many.
Its like someone knows whats gonna happen before it does, and they never guess wrong.
I've really noticed it the last 3 weeks or so. Anyone wanna explain the payout in the 6th race exacta today by the way? You have an entry at 8-5, and the expensive firster at 2-1. Then you have a clear 3rd choice in Marquet
Desire at 7-1, and Sensational Humor at 9-1. The Truehreat at 10-1.
Now these horses were bet identically in pik-3's at the payout leg(except the first two choices were flip flopped by 12 bucks with the expensive horse being favored). A friend of mine was live in the race and asked me to get down the payouts to see if anyone had taken sneaky money so he could save on his bet by starting a pik-4 with his two horses and anyone he thought was taking live money.
So basically you get two 11-1 shots, who are 6th and 7th choices in a 9 betting interest field. They run 1-2, and the exacta is only 198 bucks? Excuse me? The house parlay was 307.44. Since it was the 6th and 7th choices, you are supposed to get a little above that.
I'm sorry but this is just not right. Then the trifecta pays 1387, same amount as the one on Sunday with the 10-1, 60-1, and 5-1. LOL!!! 11-1, 11-1, 7-1 pays the same as that?
Sorry but when things stop making sense, its a good idea to lay off a circuit and watch until you feel like a sense of order has returned.

[blackthroatedwind]

I had the exacta in the 6th and didn't find it particularly low. If you think the $5.2 million firster was 2-1 in exotics, where smart people are betting, you're kidding yourself. Make him closer to the price he should have been and the $198 is generous.

[NoCarolinaTony]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I'm not getting into the " juice " discussion...because I can't.

I found the feature race on Saturday to be highly questionable. There was a Barclay Tagg horse, Stormy Kiss maybe, who on paper was clear speed and pretty much a cinch. The second choice was trained by Gary Contessa, Magnolia Jackson, a horse of minor ability who while she could win, and deserved to be second choice, was no major threat to the favorite on paper. Now the betting opens, and Magnolia Jackson opens 1/9, and the obvious favorite is somewhere around 2:1. While Magnolia drifts to 2:5 a few minutes before post she still remarkably is ultimately favored while both horses are even money. The race didn't even need to be run.

Tagg's horse got the lead, but it was apparent to anyone watching that Magnolia Jackson, who was stalking, was going to eat her up at will. And she did, with the longest shot on the board sucking up for second. Now, I don't think anything went on with Magnolia Jackson, and her abhorant 75 Beyer fig backs that up, but how the hell did EVERYONE know that the Tagg horse was finished?

I cannot make my decisions based on the board but if I am finding situations like the one described above I simply cannot bet.

Not trying to disparage anything you have said but wouldn't you consider Magnolia Jackson (like 4 of 6 on the inner) an Inner Track Specialist like Stellianos? Wasn't it a 4 or 5 horse field with really only 2 possible winners unless they raced themselves into oblivion I thought the odds kind of made sense. How many times have you seen it where the fav and longest shot on the board hook up in the very short fields? somehow the pace of the race isn't very honest in those situations, either too fast or too slow.

I am hear at 1:30 am preparing for the Beulah Contest and watching AQU replays and of the first 6 races only 1 race was wire to wire with the inside runner winning.

Ok Now I see Remorse going w2w with CC Lopez up, what else does that guy do anyway? Barcola wins by 18 with Contesa. Eric Donavan on the replay show said " Baracola was a tremendous overlay, he didn't know how she wasn't 6/5 ot lower"? Last race of professional maidens was won by the 5 3 wide on the turn clearing in upper stretch in a stagger fest of low level Mdn Claimers. The type you never used to see in NYRA. ( Philly Park or Laurel)

Not sure I would claim yesterday as an inside BIAS day at AQU. Just a bad card, with bad horses.

NC Tony

[philcski]

Originally Posted by oracle80

I've been saying the same thing for quite some time. And I agree that other than Saratoga or big days at Bel and Aqu, Ny has become so very hard to win at.
Everyone blames juicing but thats not what i am seeing. I am seeing exotic payout after exotic payout that makes absolutely no sense.
I do understand why that race with the firsters paid so little, Jerkens horse was buried in gimmicks, and it was a tough race and some folks went all all underneath.
But day after day its underlaid payouts that make no sense. The icing on the cake this weekend was Italian Saint actually going off as the FAVORITE !!! and winning for fun. I laughed out loud at that one.
Value is hard to find, and I like to play races at a track where they "flow" the way they used to everyplace.
I cant take the non-contested pace races and whats worse, they never seem to miss in NY with these ****ing overbet favorites that drive players here up the wall. I mean, so many times you see horses bet WAY down below where they should be, so you play against them as a good player is supposed to do, and they just waltz home. Its supposed to even out but it seemingly never does.

Me too, and while I don't necessarily suspect foul play in the races themselves (although your ryan is flying example was certainly odd, and i thought the same thing after reviewing the card) it's either (a) the players are too sharp relative to other jurisdictions or ( b ) there's past posting going on (which would be a huge huge huge disaster.)

[philcski]

By the way, before anyone thinks im crazy that past posting could make a serious impact on a payoff, take the debated example from this weekend. the exacta paid $393.50. There was $294,685 in the pool, minus a 25% takeout, so $221,013 to be paid out. This means $1123 in winning $1 wagers were paid out; so a $100 "extra" wager would make a significant difference.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

First of all, I don't think you or anyone is crazy to play other tracks, and I am probably lazy and foolish not to simply move my play to another curcuit. I do not know the reasons, though obviously I have suspicions, but I have been struggling to win in NY for quite a while. I am becoming resigned to the idea that it has to be easier somewhere else.

I think you are right, that save Saratoga, where the competition and attention is fierce, the races in NY often lack the competitiveness they often have on paper. Whatever the reasons it makes things difficult. And now it's wintertime, and CC Lopez is unfortunately back, so I basically have stopped playing. I bet a few dollars in the 6th today ( won pennies ) and lost most of that on Tasteyville in the 8th. I have neither the inclination to do the work nor the interest in betting my money.

I have switched my play to Kentucky recently, for the reasons you state. The amount of NYB races lately, while I applaud the program and plead for its success, is frustrating due to the unhandicappable nature of them; it seems there's either a layup favorite which would have to fall down to lose or an absolutely inscrutable race in which you feel lucky getting the winner going 5 deep. The only thing I've had success on this fall is the pick 4, in which you can express your "race" opinions, i.e., singling an obvious horse and going deep in the others, and still getting a reasonable (and logical) payoff.

I NEVER want to abandon NY racing in general, and the lower takeout is always a plus relative to other jurisdictions, but i have no "juice" to play Aqu lately (no pun intended.)