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#2
12-24-2014, 09:37 AM
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THORO-PATTERN Sts Top% Pr% Off% X%
Turf 5 up Oct-Feb: Prev Top 43 , Top-X-Off (32 , 133 , 72 ) 41 2 37 37 24 Trainer Profile - Motion, H. Graham RUNS-BASED TG FIGURE-BASED Starts Win% ITM% ROI Starts Top%Pair% Off% X% Category 6900 18 48 1.67 3762 20 Overall 33 27 20 3361 28 64 1.63 1953 19 36 28 17 Can you explain this part a bit - Top % Pair % Off % X% thanks for your help! 
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#3
12-24-2014, 09:40 AM
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#4
12-24-2014, 10:57 AM
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__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
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#5
12-24-2014, 12:38 PM
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THORO-PATTERN Sts Top% Pr% Off% X%
Turf 5 up Oct-Feb: Prev Top 51, Off-Pr-Off (72, 51, 7) 324 4 33 43 20 Trainer Profile - Clement, Christophe RUNS-BASED TG FIGURE-BASED StartsWin% ITM% ROI Category Starts Top%Pair% Off% X% 4815 20 53 1.60 Overall 2458 16 40 33 11 2854 28 66 1.58 4-1 or less 1574 15 42 33 10 1422 11 40 1.44 over 4-1 to 10-1 682 15 39 34 12 539 7 24 2.10 over 10-1 202 22 29 33 17 122 16 48 1.09 Last 90 days 79 23 49 20 8 14 29 57 1.57 Last race under 11 days 9 11 56 22 11 1137 23 59 1.67 Last race 11-29 days 788 16 42 32 10 2061 21 55 1.45 Last race 30-89 days 1276 15 41 33 11 883 20 50 1.61 Last race 90+ days 385 16 35 35 14 422 21 52 1.51 2nd race off lay-off 251 19 40 28 12 233 24 58 1.57 3rd race off lay-off 168 16 43 33 8 1194 20 53 1.60 STK 962 11 41 40 9 735 21 56 1.57 5-y-o and up 630 6 41 43 10 5-y-o and up Nov-Jan 89 4 43 42 11 3510 21 53 1.66 Turf 1955 15 42 35 8 267 21 55 1.49 Off tracks (Dirt) 107 21 33 26 20 3517 21 53 1.60 Routes 1891 15 43 34 9 31 19 55 1.55 Adding bandages 22 14 36 32 18 After race 1-4pts off top 107 21 33 26 20 784 19 51 1.68 At GP 319 17 37 36 9 518 24 59 1.73 With Bravo, Joe 268 20 40 32 9 the race I am looking at is R8 Sat gp 1 1/2 La Prevoyante H. Grade III. trf horse is clearbrook, so those #'s mean, clement is 20% with x % which isn't very good - correct?
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#6
12-24-2014, 01:46 PM
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Basically, Tabreed, based ONLY on the Thoro Pattern percentages, is 37% to run a 5 or better (his top) and 63% to run worse than the 5. Clearbrook is only 12% to run his top or better (which is a 4), and 88% to run worse than the 4. I think the Thoro Pattern stats are useful for those new to the product, but hold less value the more versed you are and used to reading the sheets, and seeing patterns for yourself. There are a whole host of variables as to why a horse will run a given number, some of which are foreseeable, and some not.
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#7
12-24-2014, 03:45 PM
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I'll be betting Clearbrook. Just like the way she runs.
 Doesn't seem like it is coming up too tough and the 4 and 12 will be over bet imo though the 12 will be one to beat. Looks like a who ever can run a "3" should get the job done. Am I right in reading Clement is only at 4% with 5 years old and up between nov and jan - that means running a new best
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#9
12-24-2014, 03:57 PM
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By the way, Clearbrook's top of 4.75 is basically the same. Even TG doesn't guarantee their figures to a .25 point accuracy. Which is not to say I don't think Clearbrook will win, I actually haven't handicapped the race yet. In fact, I'd love for Thorograph to do a study on how often the horse that gets the best fig in a race actually wins?
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#10
12-24-2014, 10:10 AM
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__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
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