Good Lord another pletcher freak

Originally Posted by boldruler

Let's see how Asmussens turn out. You also have east coast tunnel vision.

Lemme tell you what, I'll put my vision up gansit anyone's. You call ragozin and ask him what the top 4 figs are for 2Yo's this year, and i gurantee its these 4 horses. They are all incredible. The one today was frightening. Thats the kind of debut that gets people plotting a derby course in June of his 2yo year. Thast how good he was. WHy don't you watch teh replay and crunch the numbers and get back to me on that one with a mea culpa.

Originally Posted by oracle80

Lemme tell you what, I'll put my vision up gansit anyone's. You call ragozin and ask him what the top 4 figs are for 2Yo's this year, and i gurantee its these 4 horses. They are all incredible. The one today was frightening. Thats the kind of debut that gets people plotting a derby course in June of his 2yo year. Thast how good he was. WHy don't you watch teh replay and crunch the numbers and get back to me on that one with a mea culpa.

It is June. How many times did Bernardini race before last June? Who cares what happens until October at the earliest. If you are talking KY Derby in June of the 2yr old year, you have zero credibility.

[Pointg5]

Originally Posted by boldruler

It is June. How many times did Bernardini race before last June? Who cares what happens until October at the earliest. If you are talking KY Derby in June of the 2yr old year, you have zero credibility.

One thing I'll say about Pletcher, he can keep them going and winning stakes into their 3yo or 4yo years. More Than Ready won very early at 2 and won stakes at 3, Limehouse won at 2 and was winning stakes at 4. If anyone keeps them going, it's Pletcher.

Originally Posted by Pointg5

One thing I'll say about Pletcher, he can keep them going and winning stakes into their 3yo or 4yo years. More Than Ready won very early at 2 and won stakes at 3, Limehouse won at 2 and was winning stakes at 4. If anyone keeps them going, it's Pletcher.

Well he usually has a few 2yr olds, doesn't he.

[Pointg5]

Originally Posted by boldruler

Well he usually has a few 2yr olds, doesn't he.

I believe those two won the 2yo Stakes race on the KY Derby Undercard. You are right he does have a ton, but those were 2 examples of horses that he kept in training at a high level.

Originally Posted by Pointg5

I believe those two won the 2yo Stakes race on the KY Derby Undercard. You are right he does have a ton, but those were 2 examples of horses that he kept in training at a high level.

The guy has 1 horse that costs more than most trainers top 2yr olds combined. The problem with racing horses this soon is that they are running distances that are completely useless in putting any foundation in a horse. What good does a 5F race do a horse. You might as well just breeze them 5F and let them come around for the fall.

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by boldruler

The guy has 1 horse that costs more than most trainers top 2yr olds combined. The problem with racing horses this soon is that they are running distances that are completely useless in putting any foundation in a horse. What good does a 5F race do a horse. You might as well just breeze them 5F and let them come around for the fall.

I would guess that they put em in a race to see how they well they run with other horses. You can't always judge a horse by how they breeze. I would personally wait until later before debuting them, but I'm not the trainer.

[sumitas]

I don't think it's wise to race 2 year olds early and often.

[Pedigree Ann]

Originally Posted by boldruler

The problem with racing horses this soon is that they are running distances that are completely useless in putting any foundation in a horse. What good does a 5F race do a horse. You might as well just breeze them 5F and let them come around for the fall.

Didn't seem to hurt Secretariat, Affirmed and Alydar, et. al. The odd thing is that in the last 20 years trainers have cut back on running 2yos earlier in the year in hopes they will last longer at 3, yet it seems to be having the opposite effect. Round Table won the Keeneland SPRING meet 2yo stakes and lasted forever.

[LARHAGE]

Originally Posted by Pointg5

One thing I'll say about Pletcher, he can keep them going and winning stakes into their 3yo or 4yo years. More Than Ready won very early at 2 and won stakes at 3, Limehouse won at 2 and was winning stakes at 4. If anyone keeps them going, it's Pletcher.

Yeah, I was especially impressed with Half-ours.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by boldruler

It is June. How many times did Bernardini race before last June? Who cares what happens until October at the earliest. If you are talking KY Derby in June of the 2yr old year, you have zero credibility.

Are you going to tell me that if you're the owner or trainer of a horse that debuts in June in such convincing fashion as this one, that you will not even let the idea of the KD enter your mind until October? Believe me they're dreaming about it so there's no harm in speculating.

[Scav]

I dream about it now and I don't even own a horse

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

Are you going to tell me that if you're the owner or trainer of a horse that debuts in June in such convincing fashion as this one, that you will not even let the idea of the KD enter your mind until October? Believe me they're dreaming about it so there's no harm in speculating.

Dream all you want but these 2yr olds that start this early never win the derby. Young horses are pressed way too early not to mention these are 5.5F races. Horses that win these races usually have excellent speed but that doesn't necessarily win at the 10F distance.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by boldruler

Dream all you want but these 2yr olds that start this early never win the derby. Young horses are pressed way too early not to mention these are 5.5F races. Horses that win these races usually have excellent speed but that doesn't necessarily win at the 10F distance.

I'm not sure if it is true that no horse has won the derby with such an early start. I'd like to see the data on that. I'll grant you this, many of the horses that win often and early at two are speedy precocious types that end up with distance limitations. But that doesn't mean that it's impossible to start in June and win in May.

There was a good thread on ESPN a few months back where people offered what appeared to be credible data that suggested that lots of gallops were not the answer and that actual racing early in the 2YO season was more beneficial for bone and structure development and would reduce the likehood of injury. Of course over-racing would be problematic.

Keep this in perspective also, not many horses win the derby period, so it's easy to come up with statistics that are not significant.

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

I'm not sure if it is true that no horse has won the derby with such an early start. I'd like to see the data on that. I'll grant you this, many of the horses that win often and early at two are speedy precocious types that end up with distance limitations. But that doesn't mean that it's impossible to start in June and win in May.

There was a good thread on ESPN a few months back where people offered what appeared to be credible data that suggested that lots of gallops were not the answer and that actual racing early in the 2YO season was more beneficial for bone and structure development and would reduce the likehood of injury. Of course over-racing would be problematic.

Keep this in perspective also, not many horses win the derby period, so it's easy to come up with statistics that are not significant.

Horse that win in June are winning at 5F races. It is completely useless for a horse that needs to stretch out to 10F. All you get now are speed freaks that everyone goes crazy over but that have zero chance of winning the derby.

[SentToStud]

Originally Posted by boldruler

Horse that win in June are winning at 5F races. It is completely useless for a horse that needs to stretch out to 10F. All you get now are speed freaks that everyone goes crazy over but that have zero chance of winning the derby.

I don't follow your point here. Circular Quay was obviously ready to run to have performed as he did off just two very modest 1/2 mile works. There will be 20-30 2yo MSW sprints run at major tracks this week and it will be hard to find another colt or filly that ran or will run as well as this one did. To me that's the story. Not whether he's going to win a race that is 11 months away. I also disagree that a nice sprint win is a useless gauge for eventually running longer distances. After all, you have to start somewhere. I think he's a very nice colt who ran a super debut off modest works. I'm just glad I saw the race.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by boldruler

Horse that win in June are winning at 5F races. It is completely useless for a horse that needs to stretch out to 10F. All you get now are speed freaks that everyone goes crazy over but that have zero chance of winning the derby.

What would you recommend? Gallops until may then debut at 10F?
You have to get the horses up to racing speed in order to have something to build on. And you can't just start them out racing at a mile or more, you have to build up to it.

Also, every horse isn't cut out for the derby but that doesn't mean they can't make a nice run at the 2yo races in the summer and fall.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by boldruler

Horse that win in June are winning at 5F races. It is completely useless for a horse that needs to stretch out to 10F. All you get now are speed freaks that everyone goes crazy over but that have zero chance of winning the derby.

Are you sure about that? I have listed below the number of derby winners that debuted in each month for the past fourteen years.

June 3
July 2
August 1
Sept 3
Oct 3
Nov 1
Dec 1

As it turns out June is a pretty popular month to debut a future derby winner.
Also all of the June starts were at 5 furlongs so that distance would appear to be quite useful in getting a horse to 10F. This is not a huge amount of data but it is enough to show how far off base your comment was.

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

I'm not sure if it is true that no horse has won the derby with such an early start. I'd like to see the data on that.

In the 1940's, 1950's and 1960's ... there were 26 champions ... of all ages and sex ... who made their 2YO debuts in February, March, or April.

25 of them had full, injury-free careers ... of the 26 ... only Hail To Reason had his career compromised by injury.

The best strategy was ... is ... and always will be ... to run them early and often. Young horses must learn what it means to be professional athletes ... and must be raced into proper condition to accomplish that.

"Spacing" races and running horses "fresh" ... only produces the type of china dolls ... like Barbaro ... who can't physically or mentally handle the pressure of G1 racing.

As to Mr. Pletcher ... what else is new? He always has stables full of the best-bred horses ... and has rightfully become known as the "King Of The MSW Sprints." But when the 2YO colts have to go two turns in G1 races ... or the older colts have to go 10f ... it's bye-bye Toddie.

Every year he sets a new record for Triple Crown nominess ... and every year he comes up empty. He's a very accomplished trainer ... and a real nice guy ... but he's never developed a colt into a champion at classic distances ... though he's had several hundred opportunites to do so. Maybe some day he will ... so please wake me from my nap when he does.

Originally Posted by Bold Brooklynite

In the 1940's, 1950's and 1960's ... there were 26 champions ... of all ages and sex ... who made their 2YO debuts in February, March, or April.

25 of them had full, injury-free careers ... of the 26 ... only Hail To Reason had his career compromised by injury.

The best strategy was ... is ... and always will be ... to run them early and often. Young horses must learn what it means to be professional athletes ... and must be raced into proper condition to accomplish that.

"Spacing" races and running horses "fresh" ... only produces the type of china dolls ... like Barbaro ... who can't physically or mentally handle the pressure of G1 racing.

As to Mr. Pletcher ... what else is new? He always has stables full of the best-bred horses ... and has rightfully become known as the "King Of The MSW Sprints." But when the 2YO colts have to go two turns in G1 races ... or the older colts have to go 10f ... it's bye-bye Toddie.

Every year he sets a new record for Triple Crown nominess ... and every year he comes up empty. He's a very accomplished trainer ... and a real nice guy ... but he's never developed a colt into a champion at classic distances ... though he's had several hundred opportunites to do so. Maybe some day he will ... so please wake me from my nap when he does.

Horses today are much more fragile than they were back then. Drugs and breeding have left us with 2yr olds that need time to develop.

Your Barbaro "China doll" comment is perhaps the dumbest thing I have ever read. Get a life.