11/8: NHCQUALIFY.COM ~ Play-a-long Contest

[HoosierInOhio]

Originally Posted by pweizer

20-1 shot wins the last race. The leader after the first 11 races falls to 45th place. Good thing those 44 players all loved the same long shot at the end and I am sure it was based on solid handicapping angles.

This is why live money rules.

Paul

I was in 5th, fell to 64th. In hindsight, I should have played that bomb too, cause the low priced horses couldn't hurt me really. At this point I need tour points to crack the top 150 (sitting at 147 as I type this) to qualify more than finishing the in the top 4. The horse had finished ITM 5/6 on Synthetic if I am not mistaken

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by HoosierInOhio

I was in 5th, fell to 64th. In hindsight, I should have played that bomb too, cause the low priced horses couldn't hurt me really. At this point I need tour points to crack the top 150 (sitting at 147 as I type this) to qualify more than finishing the in the top 4. The horse had finished ITM 5/6 on Synthetic if I am not mistaken

That's rough.. Discussed this with Fornatale yesterday on ATR (and Tuesday Night on the Night School Contest segment with him and Chamblin). The NHC recognizes the random aspect of the "walk off home run'' but maintains that the leap froggers still needed to be in striking distance to nab top finishes.

Is the lock down/pick and pray format the solution to alleviate the Hail Mary finishes? Or how about the first half of the slate a post time decision with a lock down for the second half?

[Benny]

Originally Posted by Kasept

That's rough.. Discussed this with Fornatale yesterday on ATR (and Tuesday Night on the Night School Contest segment with him and Chamblin). The NHC recognizes the random aspect of the "walk off home run'' but maintains that the leap froggers still needed to be in striking distance to nab top finishes.

Is the lock down/pick and pray format the solution to alleviate the Hail Mary finishes? Or how about the first half of the slate a post time decision with a lock down for the second half?

I believe one of the Vegas big $ tourneys had a side category for consistancy, where winners were rewarded for their consistant good handicappig throughout the tourney. I have both won a couple and lost a bunch with stabbers hitting . Maybe some sort off formula can be made in the contest to build in a reward for consistant play to overcome the problem. I dislike the Pick /Pray /lockdown contests as i think you are predicting instead of live valuation of races. only good for those at work who cannot play live.IMO.

[HoosierInOhio]

Originally Posted by Kasept

That's rough.. Discussed this with Fornatale yesterday on ATR (and Tuesday Night on the Night School Contest segment with him and Chamblin). The NHC recognizes the random aspect of the "walk off home run'' but maintains that the leap froggers still needed to be in striking distance to nab top finishes.

Is the lock down/pick and pray format the solution to alleviate the Hail Mary finishes? Or how about the first half of the slate a post time decision with a lock down for the second half?

I was extremely upset right after it happened, mostly because I thought I had a spot locked up based on points, and maybe had a chance to auto-qualify. The horse wasn't really too much of stab if you looked at his PP's. In reality, its more of a surprise that he was 22-1 and not 12-1. I actually would have been better off to be in 30th or so cause I would have played it too. At any rate, that was the first time I was in that situation so late in a live contest. What I should have done was calculated the minimum odds I needed in order to get points. So I was $20 ahead of the 25th place guy, so that means I should have started my search with horses 7-1 or greater. The race went off with 4 horses in that range. One was a total toss, but I would have narrowed my selection process down to 3 entries.

Anyway, lesson learned. Obviously in a situation where you are trying to win the contest, my strategy isn't the best, but it this point, I just need to finish in the top 10% one more time. I fell to 149 this week with the new standings, so I was jumped by 2 people.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by Kasept

That's rough.. Discussed this with Fornatale yesterday on ATR (and Tuesday Night on the Night School Contest segment with him and Chamblin). The NHC recognizes the random aspect of the "walk off home run'' but maintains that the leap froggers still needed to be in striking distance to nab top finishes.

Is the lock down/pick and pray format the solution to alleviate the Hail Mary finishes? Or how about the first half of the slate a post time decision with a lock down for the second half?

In my opinion, the lockdown format will go a long way towards solving the headaches. At least then people will have longshots they actually like.

[dpkovalesky]

As someone who has been on both sides of these big price in the last results there really is no way to avoid these kind of finishes. There really was not many big prices on this day and just because it happens at the end it shouldn't matter. There really isn't any difference between someone playing a goofy cap horse early in the tourney vs late, it's just a lot more noticeable at the end when it's all on the line. You still have to have a near perfect day on these tourneys when it's 1 seat for every 65 players.

[HoosierInOhio]

Originally Posted by dpkovalesky

As someone who has been on both sides of these big price in the last results there really is no way to avoid these kind of finishes. There really was not many big prices on this day and just because it happens at the end it shouldn't matter. There really isn't any difference between someone playing a goofy cap horse early in the tourney vs late, it's just a lot more noticeable at the end when it's all on the line. You still have to have a near perfect day on these tourneys when it's 1 seat for every 65 players.

The difference is most likely 100 people won't have it in race 3 like they do in race 12.

I do agree that it's part of the game, and you have to be aware of the possibility. I think that was the first contest I have played where a cap hit in the very last race.