Am I reading this right?

[blackthroatedwind]

There's a lot of " completely false " stuff, with more than a sprinkling of paranoia, running rampant in this thread.

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

There's a lot of " completely false " stuff, with more than a sprinkling of paranoia, running rampant in this thread.

you mean theres no" black box tote"..in the caverns of the big a printing out winning combos after the race...its cant be true.....i smell a story..lol

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by hoovesupsideyourhead

you mean theres no" black box tote"..in the caverns of the big a printing out winning combos after the race...its cant be true.....i smell a story..lol

Well, of course that's true, but everything else is on the up and up.

[Fanofthejuiceguys]

The stable where the three came from sends out live 2yo's, the public ignored this one with reasonable works (as good as the 1 and 2) for whatever reason. Perhaps One Suit Oracle told everyone she has a lung infection and not to bet her.

[Dunbar]

It would actually be wonderful if we knew that the 1-2-3 tri's and exactas were overbet routinely to this degree. It would be an extremely powerful angle.

I'm sure someone must have looked at this in the past. It's so easy to do. You just look at the ROI for all exacta combos. If 1-2-3 is overbet enough by numbers players, it would stick out like a sore thumb (or, even more painfully, like a post that capitalizes the first letter of every word.)

--Dunbar

[philcski]

This payoff is appalling. If you had wheeled 2 with ALL it would have been an $18 bet, you would have gotten 21/1 on your money versus 11/1 in the win pool, or about a 2:1 multiplier, even with the extra takeout. Typically with the 3rd or 4th choice in a 10 horse field you'd get a 2:1 multiplier (versus with the 5/2 favorite you'd probably end up with a half to a third payoff, $80 ish). Ordinal rank means almost as much as the odds in this case; you have the 7th choice and and the 10th and longest choice. There are 90 possible exacta combinations and this would be about the 75th likeliest.

The trifecta payoff, even though it's tougher to determine "willpays", is ridiculously low as well.

[blackthroatedwind]

But, Phil, the trifecta is NOT low relative to the exacta price.

I will get more information but it does not appear that anything sinister was going on.....believe it or not.

Did CC Lopez ride the favorite by any chance?

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

..and the absolute worst betting scheme..telling old people at the otbs they should box 123 for a combined 60 perc of the pools....the scandal was traced back to a geritol box...the label subliminaly said box 123..under the' revive 's tired blood part"