Two at Toga (2023)

[theguarantee]

Wednesday, 8/9:

Best Bet: Race 8 #7 Coppa Girl 9/2 - Looking to try to take on Raging Sea today and I think Coppa Girl is the one with the upside to do so. She learned to break last time and ran a hole in the wind proving she can now break, rate kindly and finish up. I guess there has to be some concern she really liked the track and the Ellis results were a bit wonky but I think there is some real talent here and everything Brad Cox is sending to Saratoga seems ever more live than usual this year.

Best Value: Race 9 #3 Know It All Audrey 8/1 - She'll be overlooked in this now small field and perhaps it's with good reason against these but I've been waiting for her to run back off that 7/20 race. She was in tight looking loaded the whole way around until things really went poorly and she had to steady very aggressively and lost all chance. She was then forced to circle the field very wide and still came with a big run for third behind a very sharp Mosienko and another Linda Rice runner who was white hot at the time. She galloped out very strong. I don't know if she's good enough in here but I have to give her a shot today off that trip at a square price.

Good luck.

[jms62]

LOL Great... My Will pays in the DBL were 18.80 and 31.00 and I get a 3.35 ALL payout... Why cancel the 5th when bets already made? Oh let me guess... If you cancel from the end NYRA gets their P5 dough. Ok... I'll shutup and bet now.

[moses]

Originally Posted by moses

Honey Dijon scratched so let’s roll with #1 Lady Prospect in Race 5.

Race 5 canceled so gonna roll with the #1 Morethanafeeling in Race 10.

[moses]

JFC. My other horse scratched. Eff it. I’ll take a big swing.

#2 In My Opinion in race 8.

[moses]

Originally Posted by moses

All 3 picks won today. Today was a good day.

$152.00 wagered
$178.50 returned

Morethanafeeling tracked them down and paid $8.90 to WP. That puts me almost up $1.00 on the day. But I’ll take it as my top 3 choices got scratched out. I glanced at the thursday card and nothing jumped out. I’ll have to dig a bit deeper. And of course. Rain is possible.

$160.00 wagered
$187.40 returned

[moses]

Thursday picks. Both turf. If it comes off I’ll have to improvise.

First bet: Race 3 - #12 Our Country, 12/1.

Second bet: Race 7 - #5 My Lion, 8/1.

[Conrad]

Originally Posted by moses

Thursday picks. Both turf. If it comes off I’ll have to improvise.

First bet: Race 3 - #12 Our Country, 12/1.

Second bet: Race 7 - #5 My Lion, 8/1.

They are off turf today

[moses]

Originally Posted by Conrad

They are off turf today

Dammit.

First bet: Race 1 - #6 Honey Dijon 5/1
Second bet: Race 5 - #7 Pretty Up 10/1

[theguarantee]

Thursday, 8/10:

Best Bet: Race 6 #3 Le Dom Bro 5/2
Best Value: Race 10 #4 Dreamwithinadream 20/1

[moses]

Originally Posted by moses

Morethanafeeling tracked them down and paid $8.90 to WP. That puts me almost up $1.00 on the day. But I’ll take it as my top 3 choices got scratched out. I glanced at the thursday card and nothing jumped out. I’ll have to dig a bit deeper. And of course. Rain is possible.

$160.00 wagered
$187.40 returned

I finally got Honey Dijon to the winners circle. Rosario failed me on the other two year old.

$168.00 wagered
$195.80 returned

[moses]

Friday picks.

First bet: Race 6 - #3 Night Time, 15/1. I’m going to break one of my own rules here and take a stab at what I think is a fairly talented Dale Romans horse. Yes, he’s not good with shippers out of Kentucky but a few things about this horse — it’s generally run well at Saratoga, I think the pace is going to set up for him, Javy jumps aboard, the workout two back was lightning, and he’s going to be a HUGE price. My initial thought on this race was that I liked Today’s Flavor but I don’t like the pace scenario for him. So, let’s take a big shot here.

Second bet: Race 9 - #8 Whittington Park, 8/1. This is another play based on what I think will be a hot pace. Workouts look good for him too. Should be a good price. The expected favorite hasn’t won a race in roughly two years, does get class relief but I’m just not interested in betting him at what will be an extremely short price. I think you’ve got to look elsewhere in this one.

Sidenote: I’m extremely interested in #13 Dororthys Happiness (A.Ferraro/Perez) at 20/1 in race 7 if he draws in. A prior pick of mine from the same trainer is also on the AE list there — #14 Love That Bird (adds blinkers and gets K. Coa aboard). Mild interest in that one if he were to draw in as he didn’t run much in his debut but perhaps the blinkers do the trick.

[moses]

Originally Posted by moses

Friday picks.

First bet: Race 6 - #3 Night Time, 15/1. I’m going to break one of my own rules here and take a stab at what I think is a fairly talented Dale Romans horse. Yes, he’s not good with shippers out of Kentucky but a few things about this horse — it’s generally run well at Saratoga, I think the pace is going to set up for him, Javy jumps aboard, the workout two back was lightning, and he’s going to be a HUGE price. My initial thought on this race was that I liked Today’s Flavor but I don’t like the pace scenario for him. So, let’s take a big shot here.

Second bet: Race 9 - #8 Whittington Park, 8/1. This is another play based on what I think will be a hot pace. Workouts look good for him too. Should be a good price. The expected favorite hasn’t won a race in roughly two years, does get class relief but I’m just not interested in betting him at what will be an extremely short price. I think you’ve got to look elsewhere in this one.

Sidenote: I’m extremely interested in #13 Dororthys Happiness (A.Ferraro/Perez) at 20/1 in race 7 if he draws in. A prior pick of mine from the same trainer is also on the AE list there — #14 Love That Bird (adds blinkers and gets K. Coa aboard). Mild interest in that one if he were to draw in as he didn’t run much in his debut but perhaps the blinkers do the trick.

Whittington Park is scratched.

Swap in #6 Mysterious Night (10/1) in Race 8.

[jms62]

The 3rd race was a farce... Prat stopped asking and the longer Chad horse rolls right on by.

[theguarantee]

Nothing clever after all the scratches and pressed for time today:

Best Bet: Race 11 - #8 Sweetest Princess 7/2 - Seems like a match race and hoping the public gravitates to the obvious dirt form of Ghostly Girl. Just think Sweetest is a better/improving horse who can handle dirt well enough to beat these.
Best Value: Race 8 - #2 Carl Spackler 3/1 - Hated the last trip, love the draw today, think he rolls.

[moses]

Why was Night Time 5 wide around the turn? Don’t think it mattered but had no shot going that wide.

[moses]

In this maiden race, the 8 physically looks very good but seems a bit worked up. I also liked the 3 but not loving how that horse is warming up.

Those were my top options to beat the 10 but not sure now. I may take a swing on Katie Davis’s 9 horse and box her in some exactas and trifectas.

[moses]

Well I was way off.

[jms62]

Originally Posted by moses

In this maiden race, the 8 physically looks very good but seems a bit worked up. I also liked the 3 but not loving how that horse is warming up.

Those were my top options to beat the 10 but not sure now. I may take a swing on Katie Davis’s 9 horse and box her in some exactas and trifectas.

Think we keep an eye on the 8 next out. Wasn't asked to do much at the end when it was clear that Trust Fund was the one to beat.

[moses]

Originally Posted by jms62

Think we keep an eye on the 8 next out. Wasn't asked to do much at the end when it was clear that Trust Fund was the one to beat.

Agreed.

Posting my picks for tomorrow. Not sure how much I’ll be around.

First bet: Race 5 - #2 Chaperone 8/1.
Second bet: Race 6 - #11 Richie’s Princess 7/2.

[theguarantee]

Best Bet: Race 11: #2 Waterville 7/2 - tried this one earlier in the meet expecting improvement and got it but just had too much work to do in the stretch. Likes the inner, is getting better and Rosario gets an extra 1/16th to hopefully get the job done today.

Best Value: Race 7 - #4 Love Appeals 6/1 - I was between Redefined and Love Appeals in here and think either or if not both will offer value. It’s possible that Love Reigns will just prove too good and I’ve been a big fan of hers but surely this couldn’t have been the plan. Redefines has some nice races to get back to and isn’t fair off her if improved and ready to go today. I ultimately decided I wanted to go with Love Appeals however. I thought her debut was excellent and portended big things to come. The second race things didn’t go right and she really excelled when cutting back to what I think she really wants to do - sprint. I thought she was tons the best down at Monmouth in a race I’m not sure they really wanted to run in but Flo took her a bit further back than needed in my opinion. Like the switch back to Manny today. Draws nice and he should be able to get her into a nice spot and she possesses some real kick in the lane when getting her trip.

Good luck.