Change of Plans for Lava Man

[dalakhani]

Originally Posted by Danzig188

not all horses leave europe to find easier pickings, but to find firmer ground....or to get on the dirt, like mineshaft and cigar.

You left out one of the big reasons. Many leave because of the more lax medication rules over here.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by dalakhani

You left out one of the big reasons. Many leave because of the more lax medication rules over here.

that's true as well...

i find it a bit humorous, and very ironic, how the euros are always so 'holier than thou' about our 'lax' rules. and they love to brag about how their horses run with so little, or no meds...but as soon as they get here for races such as the bcc, and it's call the vet, get the lasix!

[Sightseek]

I think as long as English Channel gets a better break than the Million, he will be up on the lead with The Tin Man.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Cigar ran a Beyer fig around 95 in his second career start, at 6F on the dirt, after running poorly in his debut 2 1/2 months earlier ( his debut was at SA and maiden victory was at Hollywood ). He never raced again on the dirt until the allowance at Aqueduct that began the streak. He ran some OK California grass races, a bit better than his east coast efforts, but ultimately he was a dirt horse...that's all.

Not sure what you are suggesting with your post. His dirt win at Aqueduct was only three weeks after his final turf start. Are you suggesting they were cheating?

No, I wasn't suggesting they were cheating. I was being honest when I said I have no idea why he improved so much.

When he was in California, I thought he was in the top two or three best 3 year olds on the grass in California. I remember he ran great in an allowance race at Del Mar and I thought he was as impressive as any of the horses in the Del Mar Derby. I made a big bet on him in his next start in a stakes race on the grass up in Northern California but he didn't fire that day.

I actually made a really nice score on him in his second dirt race in New York. I saw that he had just won an allowance race by a big margin and he was stepping up into a stakes race. Since I was so high on him in California and he looked like he was back in form after that big win on the dirt, I made a big bet on him. He was a great price too. I think he was about 10-1 that day.

[blackthroatedwind]

He was 8-1 that day and I made my biggest bet of the year on him. It was the NYRA mile which was eventually renamed the Cigar Mile.

Looking at his pps it's hard to share your enthusiasm for his turf form. I was at SA when he finished second to Eastern Memories, who was OK but hardly a superstar ( I believe he was a Team Valor horse ), the day before the 1983 BC. He followed that by running 11th in the Hollywood Derby.

He was a dirt horse who for some odd reason was quickly removed from that surface after running a very good figure in breaking his maiden. Fortunately for his connections they eventually got around to running him on the right surface again.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

He was 8-1 that day and I made my biggest bet of the year on him. It was the NYRA mile which was eventually renamed the Cigar Mile.

Looking at his pps it's hard to share your enthusiasm for his turf form. I was at SA when he finished second to Eastern Memories, who was OK but hardly a superstar ( I believe he was a Team Valor horse ), the day before the 1983 BC. He followed that by running 11th in the Hollywood Derby.

He was a dirt horse who for some odd reason was quickly removed from that surface after running a very good figure in breaking his maiden. Fortunately for his connections they eventually got around to running him on the right surface again.

His race that I was so impressed with was the allowance race at Del Mar. It was so long ago that I don't remember what I liked about the race so much. I don't have his pps. Did he win that race? Who else was in there? Was it his first time going long?

[repent]

Originally Posted by Gander

Hey Repent. Your beloved English Channel had a very cozy trip behind Cacique in the Manhattan on Belmont Stakes Day but could do no better than a close 4th, getting passed by 2 horses in the stretch that came from a zip code away. Because English Channel didnt go by Cacique, he must suck right? He also could do no better than 4th in the Arl Million losing ground in the stretch. He must really suck. Please explain how you put this horse on such a higher ground than the Tin Man.

Cacique is a fast horse,
Enlglish Channel is a fast horse,
Grey Swalllow is a fast horse,
Relaxed Gesture is a fast horse.

the tin man is a slow horse.

see the difference?

you and richi can take turns whacking the tin man off all you want(hes a gelding so its not going to be all that productive),
but the bottom line is that he has NEVER shown he can beat top class competition unless he gets away with a ridiculously slow pace.

even when he did get away with a slow pace in the 2002 BCT, he still lost to a weak running of the race.

now please, unless you are somehow going to magicaly make the fractions in the ArlMillion faster, shut the hell up about the horse.
Or at the very least, stop trying to convice me that he is faster than form would indicate.
I dont give a sh*t how good you think he is.
hes not going to win the BCT.

but like I have always asked,
please bet your last dollar, your wife's last dollar, your parents' last dollar and everyone other dollar you can borrow on the tin man on Nov 4.
I want your freaking money.



Repent

[repent]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

Cacique only has one chance to beat TTM in the BC Turf. His only chance will be if Hurricane Run or one of the other great European horses blows by TTM and then TTM gives up. That does happen sometimes. Sometimes when a horse is running his hardest and he gets blown by, he can get discouraged and give up. That would be the only scenario that I could see that would allow Cacique to beat TTM. If Hurricane Run and/or Schirocco blow by TTM at the 1/4 pole or 1/8th pole, I could see Cacique making a late run and getting by TTM right at the end of the race. Other than that scenario, Cacique will not beat TTM.

LMAO

what planet do you guys live on?


Repent

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by repent

LMAO

what planet do you guys live on?


Repent

Why is it that guys who have the least success betting, have the most confidence in their opinions? Maybe you can answer that for me. Have you ever made a substantial amount of money betting on horses? Have you ever had a winning year betting on horses? Have you ever bet on horses five days a week and shown a profit at the end of the year. If not, then why are you so confident in your opinion?

If you are such an expert at analyzing horses' abilities, you can quit your job and make your living betting on horses/ and or as a bloodstock agent.

[repent]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

Why is it that guys who have the least success betting, have the most confidence in their opinions? Maybe you can answer that for me. Have you ever made a substantial amount of money betting on horses? Have you ever had a winning year betting on horses? Have you ever bet on horses five days a week and shown a profit at the end of the year. If not, then why are you so confident in your opinion?

If you are such an expert at analyzing horses' abilities, you can quit your job and make your living betting on horses/ and or as a bloodstock agent.

actually, lets take them one at a time.

yes
yes
yes
5 days a week and shown a profit at the end of year?
no,
but 7 days a week?
yes

and no,
im not going to quit my job b/c richi thinks I should.
I actually like my job and Im smart enough to know that
a) I dont know sh*t about horses or any other animal
b) Im not going to out myself in a situatuon where my economic worth is dependent soley on horses


Im simply not that great of a handicapper and I surely am not going to quit my f*cking job so I can bet on horses all day.
I spent too much time in school to do that.

that does not mean that I can not be profitable at the track.
I go cold at times like most ppl, but I know what I am good at and what Im not.

you dont know me richi.
you dont know what I know and what I do not.
dont pretend that you do.



Repent

[Gander]

Repent- I respect your your opiniion and have enjoyed numerous back and forths with you both in agreement and in disagreement.

1) Relaxed Gesture a fast horse? How do you define fast and maybe if you are willing to throw out his last 3 races which by the way sucked. When has he ever been able to beat top competition?

2) EC and Cacique are very good horses, albeit not so great that they too dont require a lot to go their way in a race to win, as evidenced by having perfect trips in all of their wins this year. So what exactly makes them any different than the Tin Man except they are not confirmed front runners?

3) Dont quit your job, I am with you on that. I imagine both of us work in professional enviroments and make pretty decent money. Why would we want to give that up to hang around OTBs with crispy critters all day to sweat out a living? Or sit home and make bets on a computer?

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Gander

3) Dont quit your job, I am with you on that. I imagine both of us work in professional enviroments and make pretty decent money. Why would we want to give that up to hang around OTBs with crispy critters all day to sweat out a living? Or sit home and make bets on a computer?

Maybe because

(1) making a living by finding good betting opportunities can be both challenging and a lot of fun.
(2) there is zero need to go to an OTB.
(3) it's nice to be able to take days off whenever you feel like it.

Your points are valid, too, Gander. There is a good chunk of stress that comes with the uncertain income. But if one is very disciplined and understands risk, the rewards are there.

--Dunbar

[Gander]

Dunbar, its safe to say my wife wouldnt want to be married to a guy who gambles for a living. Not to mention I would last about 1 week as a professional gambler, I'd have a better chance quitting my job and trying to become a professional runner. I (nor does my wife) have nothing against what people need to do to make a living but its just not the life I would like to lead.

Originally Posted by Gander

Repent- I respect your your opiniion and have enjoyed numerous back and forths with you both in agreement and in disagreement.

1) Relaxed Gesture a fast horse? How do you define fast and maybe if you are willing to throw out his last 3 races which by the way sucked. When has he ever been able to beat top competition?

2) EC and Cacique are very good horses, albeit not so great that they too dont require a lot to go their way in a race to win, as evidenced by having perfect trips in all of their wins this year. So what exactly makes them any different than the Tin Man except they are not confirmed front runners?

3) Dont quit your job, I am with you on that. I imagine both of us work in professional enviroments and make pretty decent money. Why would we want to give that up to hang around OTBs with crispy critters all day to sweat out a living? Or sit home and make bets on a computer?

Tim you have been knocking Cacique all year long and saying he needs a perfect trip is insane. hes most definitely not a frontrunner yet he wired a grade one field in the Manhattan. And before you point to the slow pace being a factor in that win, you might wanna look at the other grass races that day where the other winners came from dead last on the soggy turf course, running down pace setters who set equally slow fractions.
In his Man O War win, Cacique was trapped behind a slow pace and exploded the last 1/8th, running it in 10:4 on a turf course that was also soggy. That was the most impressive grass win by anyone in the US this year.
His losses were also stellar. In he Woodford he was boxed and trapped for most of the race. Out in Cali, he was spun 11 wide at the top of the lane on a tight turned SA turf course and got beat a neck while flying home.
No excuses in the UN yet he ran a dead game race to be an easy 2nd. And out at Arlington he conceded the slowest pace I've seen THIS YEAR and maybe EVER when the speed and firmness of the turf course are factored in.
Hes definitely been versatile, and run well at every course hes been on.
Grass racing is usally like this. Very few older grass horses rip off win after win due to the nature of grass racing being so heavily influenced by pace and trips.
The Tin Man is a great horse, an even better story, and a wonderful horse to root for. But hes only had to ship one time and in that race he caught that unbelieveable pace.
Trust me Tim, had the Tin Man had the campaign that EC and Cacvique have had, having to run at different courses and turf conditions in differently paced race in exclusively grade one races, his record would also show blemishes.
EC and cacique have competed in NOTHING but grade one races all year long, and if you don't think that makes the road to victories much harder, then I don't know what the point of the argument is.

[Gander]

I think they are all turn takers. Very good horses, each of who will win when they get there preferred set up. No I dont think Cacique necessarily needs a perfect trip to win, but show me a race EC has won without a perfect stalking trip? And the Tin Man has won coming from just off the lead as well, much like EC has done in all 3 of his wins this year.

Hopefully we'll get all 3 to have good preps and we'll see them all at Churchill in the BC.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

His race that I was so impressed with was the allowance race at Del Mar. It was so long ago that I don't remember what I liked about the race so much. I don't have his pps. Did he win that race? Who else was in there? Was it his first time going long?

I am not sure that he ever won on the turf, though he might have won his first condition, but he never ran on the dirt after his maiden win until the allowance before the NYRA Mile.

I have the pps at home and will take another look later.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Gander

Dunbar, its safe to say my wife wouldnt want to be married to a guy who gambles for a living. Not to mention I would last about 1 week as a professional gambler, I'd have a better chance quitting my job and trying to become a professional runner. I (nor does my wife) have nothing against what people need to do to make a living but its just not the life I would like to lead.

Gander, when I met my wife, she found it pretty interesting. I even hired her one summer before we were married to do some blackjack stuff in Reno. When my son was born, I was able to cut way back for a few years and be the main stay-at-home parent. That was a huge reward for the chosen job path. It's worked well for me, but I recognize that it's not a realistic (or even appealing) option for most.

--Dunbar

[Gander]

I reckon there would be a lot of people who would bet horses for a living if they could. Your right, its not very realistic for the great majority of people who play the horses. I'd say for about 98%.

[2Hot4TV]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Cigar ran a Beyer fig around 95 in his second career start, at 6F on the dirt, after running poorly in his debut 2 1/2 months earlier ( his debut was at SA and maiden victory was at Hollywood ). He never raced again on the dirt until the allowance at Aqueduct that began the streak. He ran some OK California grass races, a bit better than his east coast efforts, but ultimately he was a dirt horse...that's all.

Not sure what you are suggesting with your post. His dirt win at Aqueduct was only three weeks after his final turf start. Are you suggesting they were cheating?

No need to discredit the great race record of Cigar. Cigar always looked like a good horse when he was in California, he just developed late. I remember him going into the gate for the Pimlico special with MaCarron up. Cigar caught my eye that day, he had good body weight(alittle belly on him) and the walk of a fit horse. The rest is history. Just my take on watching from the paddock.

The story I was told, by somone I trust a lot, years ago, was that Cigar's problem before his incredible turnaround was that he had ulcers.
I've heard that Dr. ALlday treated him for ulcers and that was when he transformed.
Ulcers are now treated regularly. Actually most good trainers will use Gastroguard to perevent them from occurring in the first place these days.
But back then very few people understood the impact that ulcers had on a horses disposition and performance. Made it hard to keep weight on them as well.