2 year old campaign poll!!!!

[King Glorious]

I'm not talking about a situation like the Belmont Stakes. I'm talking about when Prized ran in the BC Turf at 12f after never having run past 10f and all of his competitors were experienced at running 12f.

Didn't Frankel always say that he knew GZ could run 10f before he had ran his 9f races?

I say that if a trainer doesn't know after a couple of 8f races whether or not he's got a horse that should be able to handle 10f, he's not a trainer that I would want to work with.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

It's too bad that everyone is so into doing what the herd is doing these days. Before Barbaro did it, people were saying that a horse couldn't win the Derby off a 5-week layoff. But then it happened. I guarantee that if Neil Drysdale was on here before he ran Prized in the BC Turf, his first turf start, u all would have been telling him how dumb he was or how far off he is or how he has no comprehension, etc. I mean, the horse was good enough to beat Sunday Silence on the dirt just a few months earlier and now they were trying him on the grass? Just a few years ago, people were saying that Smarty Jones needed to be tested in the big races and that going the Arkansas route was not the way to get prepared. Now, many are saying it's the best way to go because of him and Afleet Alex. So many people in this industry are copycats and want to do what they've seen recently be successful. Tell people that u want to run a horse back in a week and they look at u crazy. Horses used to do it all the time. Don't tell me they can't anymore. It's not the horses of today that can't do the things that they used to do. It's the owners/trainers of today that don't have the courage to try them. They are worth so much money today that nobody takes the risk in trying to train them and race them ambitiously anymore. They just look for the safe routes. I could just imagine the comments that would be made on this thread if a horse blew out in 33 and change a couple of days before the Belmont like Risen Star did. I could just imagine the comments that would be made if a horse today was to run in the all three TC races...with races IN BETWEEN them. It's ok though. I don't mind all of the things u say about me. I just feel bad for u all that u have such limited vision and can't see the possibilities that are out there. The reason we don't see many great horses anymore aren't because the horses aren't great.....it's because so many people with limited vision won't allow them to be. Like Lava Man this year. I mean, why take a shot at history in the Arlington Million when u can take the safe route in the Pacific Classic? In two years, nobody will remember what Lava Man did this year. I've never understood why so many people are afraid to think and try things different.

I may not be a trainer but I've been around plenty of them. Some pretty good ones too. My ideas may be far off according to today's game. But that's because today's game is far off from the way the game used to be. And it used to be better.

Hey, i've always liked the Arkansas route, but for a while the purse money was a little behind the others (this is now obviously corrected), which means you had a chance of missing the Derby with a 3rd in the Arkansas Derby as the Rebel was ungraded for a while, which is scary. Smarty Jones had ZERO graded earnings going into the Ark Derby, for example...

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

I'm not talking about a situation like the Belmont Stakes. I'm talking about when Prized ran in the BC Turf at 12f after never having run past 10f and all of his competitors were experienced at running 12f.

Didn't Frankel always say that he knew GZ could run 10f before he had ran his 9f races?

I say that if a trainer doesn't know after a couple of 8f races whether or not he's got a horse that should be able to handle 10f, he's not a trainer that I would want to work with.

your ability to change subjects and direction makes me dizzy...
i surrender.

my guess on the trainer comment is that there are not many of them that would want to work with you either. i would recommend you get your license and start putting your theories to the test.

[smartyalex]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

your ability to change subjects and direction makes me dizzy...
i surrender.

my guess on the trainer comment is that there are not many of them that would want to work with you either. i would recommend you get your license and start putting your theories to the test.

TOUCHE!!!! Also, I enjoyed KG's quote "So many people in this industry are copycats and want to do what they've seen recently be successful". Well, there is a key word in that quote that needs some explanation to KG.......SUCCESS!!!!!!

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by smartyalex

TOUCHE!!!! Also, I enjoyed KG's quote "So many people in this industry are copycats and want to do what they've seen recently be successful". Well, there is a key word in that quote that needs some explanation to KG.......SUCCESS!!!!!!

um yeah, since when was that a bad word?

[Independent George]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

In team sports, u are competing against other players that are making moves to counter yours so it's important to get in some actual competition to test your plays and moves against live competition. In racing, that's not the case. It's basically a case of how fast can u run and how far? U can learn a lot about your horse in tandem workouts.

People are so enamored by the idea that u have to run 9f first. Why? So u can find out one race sooner if your horse can go 10f or not? U still don't know for sure. A 9f race is still not a 10f race.

Maybe I'm wrong though. That is always possible.

No it isn't. It can't be !!! Tell me you're kidding !!! Please, please.
Oh Gawd.....nooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo !!!

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

um yeah, since when was that a bad word?

Nothing wrong with being successful. Just that there are more ways to be successful than what are currently used. At least I think so. I mentioned Drysdale's route with Prized. What about what Dickinson did with Da Hoss? Matz chosing his route with Barbaro even though he was told at every turn that no horse could win off a five-week layoff? What I'm saying is that there are ways of doing things that may work that are a little unconventional and if more trainers were willing to try them (and had owners willing to allow them the opportunity to try), we might see some things that would work and at the same time might be good for the sport. Or maybe they won't work. At no point have I guaranteed that my ideas would work, only that I'd try them and see. What I do know is that I am totally disgusted with what is going on nowdays. Sure, it's what everyone does. But then come July, it seems like 70% of the top horses in the group are on the sidelines. How many top 3yo's do we see each year continue on to their 4yo season? Perhaps if they weren't pushed so hard so early, they might have a little left for later. Or we can just stay with the status quo where every year, we are left with 4-5 horse fields in all of the best 3yo races in the second half of the season and most of those are newcomers cause so many of the best are on the sidelines. Go back to only 2000 and think about it. None of the following TC race winners made it through the end of the year:

Red Bullet-2000
Monarchos-2001
Point Given-2001
Sarava-2002
Empire Maker-2003
Smarty Jones-2004
Giacomo-2005
Afleet Alex-2005
Barbaro-2006
Jazil-2006

I'm not sure but I think Commendable in 2000 would be in that group too. That means out of 16 horses that have won TC races in this decade, at least 10 and maybe 11 haven't finished their 3yo season. U could take it back further and add Charismatic, Real Quiet, and Silver Charm, all of whom went to the sidelines following the Belmont. U could throw in horses like Lion Heart, The Cliff's Edge, Bellamy Road, Closing Argument, Tapit, and Came Home. All were prominent in the TC races or on the Derby prep trail and all had their seasons ended prematurely. I don't like that. I also don't think it's coincidence. I think that these horses are being pushed too hard too early without the proper training. I'm trying to find a better way. Again, not saying my ideas would work but if the current tried and successful routes are going to get me early success but then my season will be done before the summer is over, thanks but no thanks.

[avance2000]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

Santa Anita.

As a 2yo, I would not run him beyond 6f at all but I'd run him often, maybe 6-8 times.

As a 3yo, assuming he progressed with each start and showed me enough to continue on with him, I'd go (according to the 2006 racing dates):

San Miguel-6f Jan 8 at Santa Anita
San Vicente-7f Feb 12 at Santa Anita
Swale-7f Mar 4 at Gulfstream
Private Terms-8f Mar 25 at Laurel
Derby Trial-8f Apr 29 at Churchill

In my opinion, five races is enough to get a horse plenty fit for the Derby. Also, I'm not a big believer in a horse having to go 9f first to see if he can go 10f. If he can't show me enough in two tries at 8f to convince me that he can go further, I need to back up at that point. I personally feel that any trainer worth his weight in salt should be able to tell if a horse can go 10f off of two 8f races. A lot of people these days feel that it's not good to have a horse run that close to another race but it seemed to do ok for Don't Get Mad a couple of years ago when he ended up fourth in the Derby after running in the Derby trial. It also worked well for plenty of horses back in the day and I don't know of any reason why it couldn't still work. I think it's good to get in a good 8f work prior to a race and with the horse having been off for a month prior to that, it would be a good spot to take some of the edge off yet keep him sharp while getting paid for it should he finish in the money.

i guess the squeaky wheel gets the grease. i think this was a fairly interesting idea for a thread, and then this post (which any reasonable person would recognize as the ramblings of a crazy person) takes over the thread and everybody spends 3 pages responding to the insanity.
what a pity.
could we get back to the topic at hand?

i would probably follow lawyer ron's path last year:
risen star
southwest
rebel
arkansas

[Independent George]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

It's too bad that everyone is so into doing what the herd is doing these days. Before Barbaro did it, people were saying that a horse couldn't win the Derby off a 5-week layoff. But then it happened. I guarantee that if Neil Drysdale was on here before he ran Prized in the BC Turf, his first turf start, u all would have been telling him how dumb he was or how far off he is or how he has no comprehension, etc. I mean, the horse was good enough to beat Sunday Silence on the dirt just a few months earlier and now they were trying him on the grass? Just a few years ago, people were saying that Smarty Jones needed to be tested in the big races and that going the Arkansas route was not the way to get prepared. Now, many are saying it's the best way to go because of him and Afleet Alex. So many people in this industry are copycats and want to do what they've seen recently be successful. Tell people that u want to run a horse back in a week and they look at u crazy. Horses used to do it all the time. Don't tell me they can't anymore. It's not the horses of today that can't do the things that they used to do. It's the owners/trainers of today that don't have the courage to try them. They are worth so much money today that nobody takes the risk in trying to train them and race them ambitiously anymore. They just look for the safe routes. I could just imagine the comments that would be made on this thread if a horse blew out in 33 and change a couple of days before the Belmont like Risen Star did. I could just imagine the comments that would be made if a horse today was to run in the all three TC races...with races IN BETWEEN them. It's ok though. I don't mind all of the things u say about me. I just feel bad for u all that u have such limited vision and can't see the possibilities that are out there. The reason we don't see many great horses anymore aren't because the horses aren't great.....it's because so many people with limited vision won't allow them to be. Like Lava Man this year. I mean, why take a shot at history in the Arlington Million when u can take the safe route in the Pacific Classic? In two years, nobody will remember what Lava Man did this year. I've never understood why so many people are afraid to think and try things different.

I may not be a trainer but I've been around plenty of them. Some pretty good ones too My ideas may be far off according to today's game. But that's because today's game is far off from the way the game used to be. And it used to be better.

Handing out towells in the men's room at Santa Anita may not qualify .

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

I think what you are kind of missing here is that most trainers do what they feel is right for their horse, and they know these horses better than anyone else. You have mentioned Prized. While I guess it was unconventional for him to go in the Turf, he had very solid turf breeding, and Drysdale must've thought could win, and who could argue with him? Da Hoss had physical problems almost from day one, as did another horse he resurected A Huevo. He gave them the time they needed, and they performed well. Matz thought it was best for Barbaro to go into the Derby fresh, and he was right, probably because he knew his horse.
Personally I think the breed in general is declining. Horses can't run as frequent as they used to. now there are exceptions to that, but for the most part they can't. Why that is, I don't know. Could it be they are asked to run too fast too early, maybe. But on one hand you want horses to not be hard pressed early, but you want them to run 6-8 times as a juvenile. You don't see many horses running that much, that early, and then around late in their 3 year old year. And of course part of it is the breeding game. Some, not all, some horses are retired prematurely because of the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow.

I don't want them hard presed running 8-9f as 2yo's but I do think that a good number of races at distances no further than 6f would be ok. I think that would help them get the racing experience and the foundation they need to be able to withstand the rigors of racing for a long period of time. I don't think it makes any sense to baby a horse through his 2yo season by running two or three times and then ask them to be ready for the TC trail and the TC races. I think u are asking for trouble. U say that horses can't run as frequent as they used to but I don't believe that's true. I think they just don't get the chance to run as often anymore. Maybe that's because more trainers/owners are afraid of losing races and diminishing their horses value so they limit the number of races in order to try to have them at peak form for each start. It used to be where horses would race themselves into form and losses on a record didn't hurt like they do now. U see it with a gelding like Perfect Drift. Every year, they start him off in those grass races. They don't care if he loses since it won't hurt his stud value anyway. Their goal is to use those races to get him into shape for his main goal, which is usually the Foster Hcp.

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

While I don't disagree with some of what you are saying, especially how horses race themselves into shape. You kind of contradict your initial post where you said trainers should be able to simulate racing by training.

I don't mean exactly. There is no substitute for an actual race. I mean that u can find out things like how they react to surfaces or sitting behind horses or how far they might want to run. I should have said u can simulate some race conditions.

[repent]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

To be honest, I didn't know if the mile race at Laurel would be two-turns or not. But, IMO, a trainer can use workouts to find that out. It's not too difficult to simulate race conditions in a workout and it's not hard at all to get a horse to work two-turns. My main goal would be not to get the horse too drained before the big day. I've long disagreed with the theory that a horse has to run at 9f before he can run at 10f. I don't think the Florida Derby distance helped Barbaro win. I don't think the Arkansas Derby distance helped Smarty win. I think either would have won even if their preps had been 8-8.5f. I'm a big believer in the fact that either a horse can do something or they can't.

If I did want to see an actual race at two-turns though, I'd substitute the Lexington for the Derby Trial.

Laurel has a 9f oval.
1 turn dirt mile.

you obviously subscribe to the Sheil Mo plan for producing a KY Derby winner.
its working great so far for you guys.


Repent

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

I guess that's not too surprising since I'm not a trainer. By the way, can u tell me which Derby horses u have trained so I can see the type of schedule u have used?

Despite not having any Derby quality horses I do know enough about training to know that it is NOT easy to simulate race conditions in a workout and two turn "experience" in the morning is virtually useless in regards to two turn experience in the afternoon. Of course you wanted a fresh horse coming into the Derby which is why your schedule called for a mile race 7 days prior? This whole subject is not really pertinent because different horses call for different schedules.

A lot of times the only schedule that matters is the one the owner plots and King if you are the owner, the trainer is in for a whole lot of trouble.

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

Despite not having any Derby quality horses I do know enough about training to know that it is NOT easy to simulate race conditions in a workout and two turn "experience" in the morning is virtually useless in regards to two turn experience in the afternoon. Of course you wanted a fresh horse coming into the Derby which is why your schedule called for a mile race 7 days prior? This whole subject is not really pertinent because different horses call for different schedules.

A lot of times the only schedule that matters is the one the owner plots and King if you are the owner, the trainer is in for a whole lot of trouble.

LOL!!!!!!!!!!!
Best quote ever was from Peter Miller, when he said up on being fired by someone, " i just don't think its possible to train from the office of a furnitire store in Texas".

[Nascar1966]

I would go the Fair Grounds route. Lots of great food and I would have to drink at least one hurricane, skylab, and typhoon at Pat O'brien so I could get the glasses for those drinks. Besides that you have Mardi Gras and all the festivities leading up to Fat Tuesday, which I enjoyed when I was in Slidell. I think the awesome is why I gained some weight when I was living there. Nothing like some good old red beans and rice or a shrimp poboy dressed. Yummy Yummy!!!!